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Corbin Young examines the fantasy football slot wide receivers to target or fade for the 2024 season, including the highest and lowest in slot yards per route run.
Sometimes the term slot receiver brings up a negative connotation, but that should be the case, especially considering the context. We know context matters like whether the team runs a high rate of 11 personnel, a team's pass rate, and a player's efficiency in the slot position. Sometimes offenses will move their best offensive weapon into the slot to take advantage of matchups based on the defensive formation.
The visual above shows the qualified receiver leaders in slot target share and fantasy points per game. There's a slight correlation between a player's slot target share and their fantasy points per game. Many of the top players in slot target share rank as the better ones in fantasy football, showing a team's willingness to target one of their best playmakers.
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Slot Target Rate Leaders
In 2023, the running backs led the receivers in slot rate. Among pass-catchers with 10 or more targets in the slot, Alvin Kamara, Tyjae Spears, De'Von Achane, and Saquon Barkley highlight the running back leaders in slot targets. However, several high-end receivers earned targets in the slot, including Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, and DJ Moore.
The table below shows the receiving leaders' slot target percentage, plus slot yards per route run, success rate, and fantasy points per game.
We'll note that we're working with a small sample of targets, so there's probably some noise in the data, though we used 10 slot targets as the minimum threshold. Unsurprisingly, these receivers earning a high volume of slot targets tended to dominate in slot fantasy points per game. The best offenses in the league target their playmakers in the slot position, hoping to gain a matchup advantage.
Highest Yards Per Route Run in the Slot
The 49ers put Brandon Aiyuk in the slot 29.5 percent of the time, turning into a whopping 4.16 yards per route run. Farther down the leaders, Deebo Samuel Sr. rocked 2.64 slot YPRR (No. 9), with George Kittle in sixth. Kyle Shanahan's offenses have been one of the best in the league, partially due to scheme and putting his playmakers into situations where they can succeed.
The visual below shows the leaders in slot target rate for that receiver or pass-catcher.
Hill finished second in YPRR, with Spears, Collins, Justin Jefferson, and DJ Moore averaging over 3.0 YPRR. Spears only had 12 targets, but there's noise due to sample size as the only running back with over 2.0 YPRR besides De'Von Achane (2.11). CeeDee Lamb thrived in the slot, garnering a league-high 98 slot targets ahead of St. Brown (95), Evan Engram (86), Adam Thielen (83), Keenan Allen (74), and Tyler Boyd (74).
Besides the big names, let's touch on Rashee Rice, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed. Rice finished with the third-highest slot target rate behind Kadarius Toney (27.5 percent) and Mecole Hardman Jr. (27.3 percent). Travis Kelce had the most raw targets (61) in the slot ahead of Rice, aligning with their slot and overall production. The Chiefs used Rice in a low air yards role, evidenced by his 4.8 air yards per target (No. 91). Thankfully, Rice flashed his ability to gain yards after the catch, with the second-most YAC/Rec (8.3) among receivers behind Samuel at 8.8.
Reed tied for the team lead in target share at 18 percent with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, showing they like to spread the ball around. Since Reed scored the sixth-most total touchdowns (eight receiving, two rushing), he posted the 13th-highest fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/G). Meanwhile, Wicks efficiently converted air yards into receiving production, evidenced by his 14th-best Receiver Air Yard Conversion Ratio (RACR).
Reed and Watson missed time in 2023, and the rookie produced more without Watson on the field. Reed averaged over two more targets, 20 more receiving yards, and more than five fantasy points per game without Watson. The Packers rank middle of the pack in the percentage of 11 personnel at 62.7 percent (No. 18). However, they feed the sixth-highest rate of targets to the wide receiver position at 65.4 percent, tying them with the Bengals.
Reed likely remains in the slot role for the Packers and should earn the highest team target share. If they continue spreading the ball around, Reed may need to rely on his efficiency, but it's logical to project him earning more opportunities in 2024.
Chris Godwin Expects to Play More in the Slot
One of the offseason notes that caught our attention involves Godwin, who expects to play full-time in the slot in 2024. The article mentions the offensive staff coming from Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel, meaning more potential motions and creativity in the Buccaneers offense. Over the past four seasons (2020-2023), Godwin unsurprisingly had a higher slot target rate than Mike Evans.
The visual below shows the Buccaneers receivers from 2020 to 2023, with at least 15 slot targets per season.
Interestingly, Godwin had his highest slot YPRR at 2.11 since 2020; yet, his success rate declined to a career-worst 53.1 percent. That indicates Godwin gained yards per route in 2023, yet struggled to make meaningful and successful plays based on the downs and situations.
Godwin goes over 30 picks later than Evans and sits near Jayden Reed, Calvin Ridley, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, and Jordan Addison. If the market discounts Godwin and lets him fall past ADP, we may want to target him as a veteran slot receiver ready to bounce back after a WR29 finish in 2023 compared to WR16 (2022) and WR14 (2021).
Last season, the Buccaneers ran the eighth-highest rate of 11 personnel and the second-highest target share to the receiver position (68.2 percent). The only team with a higher target share to wide receivers involves the Rams at 71.7 while running the most three-receiver sets at 94.5 percent.
Lowest Yards Per Route Run in the Slot
In 2023, Tyler Boyd was the most inefficient receiver in slot yards per route run. Boyd garnered the fifth-most slot targets, tying him with Thielen. Volume is important, but we want players to be efficient, too. Boyd joins the Titans and will likely open the season as the team's slot receiver. Boyd's target share ranged from 14-18 percent over the past three seasons, translating into WR3-like production. The Bengals ranked fourth in pass rate (64 percent) compared to the Titans at 22nd, with a 57 percent pass rate, meaning the volume might not exist for Boyd on a new team.
Addison is an interesting name after averaging 7.7 targets, 62.4 receiving yards, and 14.7 fantasy points per game without Jefferson last season. Though Addison wasn't efficient in slot YPRR, T.J. Hockenson (22.4 percent) and Jefferson (27.1 percent) had higher slot target rates. Addison produced efficiently, evidenced by his 2.0 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE/G), ranking 23rd, mainly due to his 10 touchdowns in 2023. In Year 1, Addison compared closely to Brandin Cooks, Elijah Moore, Marquise Brown, Lamb, and Jahan Dotson.
The visual below shows the top Year 1 and Year 2 comparisons for the closest comps to Addison, showing he likely falls into the bucket of a high-end receiver with tons of upside. Hopefully, Addison takes a step forward closer to Brown, Cooks, and Lamb than the others.
Curtis Samuel joins the Bills on a three-year contract worth $24 million. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, the Bills receiving corps added Keon Coleman with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid as the main receiving options besides Samuel. Though Samuel struggled in slot YPRR, he had a respectable 3.66 PPR/G out of the slot, ranking 19th in 2023. Diggs led the Bills with a 25.7 percent slot target share while Kincaid ranked second at 19.4 percent. The Bills should continue using Kincaid heavily as one of their top target options, with Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel vying for the second or third target options.
Samuel ranked second in both seasons behind Terry McLaurin, with a respectable 16-17 percent target share on the Commanders. That shows Samuel can earn targets, but the question surrounds the passing volume in Buffalo. The Bills ranked 17th in pass rate (59 percent) with Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator (Weeks 1-10). After they fired Dorsey, Joe Brady took over and the team established the run, evidenced by the lowest pass rate (49 percent) from Weeks 11-18, tying it with the Steelers. It may be a small sample size, but it's logical to temper expectations on a high pass rate given the pass-catching options for the Bills in 2024.
Summary
It's worth noting receivers playing primarily in the slot can be positive and negative. To understand the team context and situation, we should consider the rate of 11 personnel, meaning three wide receivers on the field. There's noise in running backs running a high amount of slot routes. However, the best teams put their playmakers in the slot, turning optimal offensive matchups against the defenders.
The Packers receiver group looks like an ambiguous group worth targeting, and Godwin might be a candidate to buy given the potential offensive changes. Could Samuel garner the second-most targets on his (new) team? The ADP market seems to believe, with pick 92 on Underdog as WR50 near Courtland Sutton, D'Andre Swift, Zack Moss, and James Conner.
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