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Aidin Ebrahimi evaluates Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard's fantasy football value in dynasty leagues heading into 2024. He reviews the stats and history of Pollard and ranks him among dynasty running backs in the NFL.
Tony Pollard had a season to remember in 2022, as he performed better than Ezekiel Elliott despite Elliott being the starter. Pollard made the Pro Bowl that year, reminiscent of the late Cowboys RB Marion Barber making the Pro Bowl in 2007 despite Julius Jones being the starter.
In 2008, the Cowboys moved on from Jones and handed the keys to Barber, expecting him to be a superstar. Barber remained solid but never took the leap that many had expected. Dallas did the same thing in 2023, moving on from Zeke and naming Pollard as their RB1. History repeated itself last season, as Pollard remained solid, but failed to improve his stats. The Cowboys decided against re-signing him, and now he's a member of the Tennessee Titans as he looks set to be the heir to Derrick Henry's throne.
Should you be buying, selling, or holding Pollard this offseason? Let's dive in.
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Tony Pollard 2023 Season Review
Pollard entered the 2023 season as one of the most coveted fantasy RBs, as he was among the top seven RBs in ADP. Pollard had a dominant performance in Week 1 and continued his pace by Week 3, finishing as the overall RB4 (PPR) during that span with an average of 19.1 PPR points per game. If he kept that pace for the rest of the season, he would have comfortably finished as the overall RB2 with 324.7 PPR points.
Everything changed after that week. Pollard suffered a left fibula fracture and had to undergo surgery months earlier after a hip-drop tackle during the Cowboys/49ers Divisional Round game in the previous season and that injury began bothering him once again.
Tony Pollard to Titans. Can't think old Tennessee ground and pound. Think how Bengals ran their offense with Brian Callahan. RB plays an important role in the pass game. And looking forward to Pollard being healthy - all banged up last year
— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) March 11, 2024
From Week 4 to Week 11, Pollard averaged just 12.3 carries per game. Then, he said he felt he was "truly back" after Week 11, which caused the Cowboys to increase his carries to 15.3 per game.
Still, it was nowhere near the 20.7 carries a night he was getting through the first three weeks. The surgery seemingly took a toll on him after the first three weeks and he never really recovered from that.
In all, he finished the year with 1005 yards (two fewer yards than in 2022) and six touchdowns (three fewer TDs than in 2022). In fantasy football, he finished as the RB14 and had several stinkers which made him an unreliable fantasy option.
What is Tony Pollard Worth in Dynasty Leagues?
According to KeepTradeCut.com's crowdsourced rankings, Pollard is being valued as the dynasty RB24. He's placed just behind Derrick Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson, and just ahead of Najee Harris and Trey Benson. He's not even the highest-ranked RB on his own team, as Tyjae Spears is ranked as the RB20 and even rookie RB Jonathan Brooks is being ranked above him.
Which #Titans Running Back will have the better 2024 Season?
Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears pic.twitter.com/6CCT0aKmAm
— Locker (@LockerDFS) April 13, 2024
Currently, we're seeing some fantasy managers selling Pollard low, or trying to package him with picks and other stars for older stars with more immediate upside. I've never agreed with the "going all-in" strategy, not in real football and especially not fantasy football. Since Pollard's value is low right now, you'd be better off if you kept him and the other assets, because you wouldn't get much for him right now unless you included multiple picks and other stars.
Tony Pollard 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Titans are looking to enter a new era, but that doesn't mean that they don't want to stop being competitive. They currently have the seventh pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, and many analysts (myself included) have predicted that they'll either take Joe Alt or Olumuyiwa Fashanu. Either one of these picks would be excellent for Pollard's fantasy outlook, as Dallas' O-Line was getting old last year.
Speaking of Dallas, they had one of the fastest offenses in the league during Pollard's breakout 2022 campaign under OC Kellen Moore, but that changed drastically in 2023.
New Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz sees RBs Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears as RB "1A, 1B"https://t.co/y4IgXG1NKd pic.twitter.com/eanoyF5DMj
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) April 11, 2024
The Cowboys became a slower, more methodical offense when HC Mike McCarthy took over offensive playcalling duties. The number of seconds a team takes before they snap the ball is a huge factor for RBs, as some RBs like Pollard thrive in fast-paced environments.
It remains to be seen how the Titans will run things in that regard, but one could hope it'll be faster than their 30.4 seconds per play average in 2023 (31st in the league).
The most concerning part of Pollard's 2024 fantasy outlook is Tyjae Spears. Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz claimed that he "sees [Pollard and Spears] as 1A and 1B", so we could probably see 180-200 carries for both of them next year.
This hurts both of their fantasy stocks, as even though this is the correct coaching decision, neither will truly break out and cement themselves as anything more than an RB2 in fantasy leagues.
If you already have Pollard, keep him as an RB2 because you can't get much for him on his own. If not, there should be no rush for you to go out there and trade for him as he's older than Spears and his dynasty stock peaked at the start of last season.
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