RADIO
Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Thunder Dan Palyo identifies one player for each category on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
RotoBallers, we are officially only two days away from the first regular season games! That means your drafts have already happened or are being conducted this weekend or early next week. Our latest series here at RotoBaller was created to help get you ready for the 2022-2023 fantasy basketball season!
If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on several players from each team that we see as values for the upcoming season or that are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.
In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Minnesota Timberwolves based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2022-2023 season.
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Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Anthony Edwards
I am surely not alone in my feelings on Ant this season and if you've read other preseason or offseason content over the last few months, I am guessing you have seen his name come up multiple times. But what's not to like about this young player? He made some pretty big leaps from his rookie year to his sophomore season, upping his scoring average by a full 2.0 points per game while also draining .6 more threes and shooting more efficiently from behind the arc, inside the arc, and at the free throw line.
He also jumped from 1.1 steals per game to 1.5, which is fairly significant in that he only played two more minutes per game. His offensive game is smooth and effortless at times and he was more involved as a distributor last season as well, raising his assists from 2.9 per game to 3.8.
He's still just 21-years-old and the ceiling is high. The dynasty crowd knows it too, as he's been a top-10 pick in dynasty start-ups this season. You probably don't want to reach all the way into the top-10 to take him in redraft, but he's absolutely worthy of a second-round pick, and if you don't take him a few picks ahead of his ADP, you're simply probably not getting him on your roster this season. I think all the hype surrounding his breakout is very real. He has the tools and the body to put up some peak Jimmy Butler-type stats, but with more threes. I have been grabbing him as often as I can in my drafts.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: D'Angelo Russell
I really tried to make sure that it wasn't just me having something personal here against D-Lo. I have never been a big fan of his and while I respect his talent, I think a lot of the early hype around him kind of soured me on him as he often failed to live up to it. He flourished as the main guy in Brooklyn and was putting up big numbers in Golden State during their lost season of 2019-2020. But since coming to Minnesota, he's seen his numbers trend down the last few seasons with the exception of his assists, which actually went up last year as he posted a career-high of 7.1 per game.
Russell is being asked to be an actual point guard and not a score-first player. And while that's great for the well-roundedness of this team, it's not all that good for his fantasy value. Last year, he finished 73rd in overall 9-cat value on the Basketball Monster player rater. His ADP this year reflects the lowered expectations too, as he's dropped to around 70th overall on Yahoo/ESPN.
He just doesn't do it for me as a fantasy player. 18-7 is nice with 2.7 threes, but his FG% is killer (career 42% shooter) and he has averaged only 1.1 steals per game in his career. How much will Anthony Edwards continue to take over this backcourt this season too? For every point that Edwards scores and assist he racks up, it's coming from somewhere and Russell is the most likely to be negatively affected by the ascendency of Edwards this season.
Fantasy Basketball Locks: Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert
I am not the least bit concerned about KAT this season and if he's dropping past the five or six spots in your drafts, gobble him up! KAT is the perfect 9-cat player and his well-rounded game is going to play well in any format. The "Gobert effect" to me could be a couple fewer boards but probably not much else. And let's not forget that these two twin towers could end up having their minutes staggered too, meaning plenty of rebounding opportunities for KAT when Gobert is off the floor.
KAT does it all and does it well. Could his FG% drop a bit if he shoots more threes and fewer shots in the paint? Sure, but again, I think that drop would be marginal and the across-the-board production from KAT (and perhaps increased threes and scoring) is going to negate any drops in rebounding and FG%. I am drafting him with confidence everywhere and I think it's quite possible that having Gobert is going to be a net positive for him in the long run.
Now, let's talk about Rudy. I don't care if Minnesota gave up too much to get him, I think he's going to fit in perfectly on this team and give them really solid real-life production, and his fantasy managers really great fantasy stats as well. Rudy finished 23rd on the BB monster player rater last season and now he's going to a team that should be an offensive juggernaut.
Minnesota plays at a faster pace than Utah did and has multiple playmakers who could get Rudy open looks at the rim. I think he leads the league in rebounding and continues his efficient scoring and shot-blocking. He seems energized this preseason and I think he's ready to make a big impact on this team that has a deep playoff run in its sights. You can definitely grab him in the third round and feel good about the safety he provides. I think he's in for possibly his best season yet.
Conclusion
Minnesota is going to be a really fun team to watch this season and I think they are easily a playoff team with a shot at competing for a trip to the Finals. Yes, they could be that good. But their ultimate potential will only be unlocked if we see Edwards take that next big step and their two big men work together in the front court.
This team has a ton of depth at every position, however, which is one of the reasons I really like them to make a run. The minutes probably won't be there every night for guys like Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell, Taurean Prince, or Kyle Anderson to be rostered in standard leagues, but if you're in deeper leagues, then grab some of these bench players as this team is going to score a ton of points and this second unit might beat up on a lot of lesser second units this season.
Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!
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