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2019 Dynasty Price Check - Derrius Guice

Last season, the Washington Redskins drafted Derrius Guice and hopes were high that the former LSU running back could be the long term answer for a team that had gone through a revolving door of backs since Alfred Morris went to Dallas after the 2015 season.

Instead, Guice tore his ACL and missed the entire 2018 season, and Washington brought in grizzled veteran Adrian Peterson to man the spot. Peterson put up solid numbers and was brought back for the 2019 season, with reports out of Washington indicating that the team plans to run a platoon with the two backs.

So, what's this all mean for dynasty owners/prospective dynasty owners? Let's talk about Guice's current value and reasons why he could be someone to buy or could be someone to sell.

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Derrius Guice
Team: Washington Redskins
College: LSU
Height/Weight: 5'11", 225 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 59


Case to Buy

The case to buy on Derrius Guice is a pretty simple one. ACL injuries aren't career-killers anymore, Guice was good enough in college to make him a second-round pick in the NFL Draft, and he was a highly-touted guy in last year's rookie drafts. I picked him third in our staff league last year and I held onto him when people were throwing some serious buy low offers at me, because I knew Guice was a valuable player on an offense that needed a guy like him. Even with Peterson running well all season, I looked at it as a wow, Guice is going to look good with this team thing.

Then the team brought Peterson back and insinuated that this wasn't just going to be Guice's job, and where others probably saw some panic, I saw more opportunity.

Here's the thing about Adrian Peterson: He's a 34-year-old running back in an era where running backs don't last into their mid-30s, and while he showed last year that he was capable of putting together did plays, that resurgence came after a disappointing 2017 campaign. There's always going to be a part of me that hears the name Adrian Peterson and thinks he'll never truly slow down, but the more likely scenario here is that last year was a positive blip on the radar of a career that's heading towards its conclusion.

But hey, there's probably a lot of fantasy owners who aren't going to be very happy with having a guy coming off a knee injury who isn't his team's unquestioned lead back, and that's going to mean there's a chance to buy him for a lower price than he went for last year. The 2018 NFL Draft was one that was pretty strong from a running back perspective, so could you get a player from that strong class for a late rookie first this year? If so, you've got to do it, right?

At LSU, Guice showed himself to be a player who was capable of busting off big runs, but he wasn't just a threat in that regard. Guice was a workhorse, shouldering the offensive load for the Tigers and producing multiple 200-yard games. In his final year of college ball, Guice showed an ability to get more involved in the passing game as well, and many thought he'd be an every-down kind of back in the NFL. He still can be, and since dynasty leagues are focused on long term results as well as upfront results, Guice is still incredibly valuable.


Case to Sell

Let's say you have a dynasty team built to compete for a title this year. You've got some solid veterans, and you don't really have time to wait for Guice. You're also not super keen on playing a guy who'll be in a timeshare. What can you do? Sell, sell, sell!

Shiny young players can net you solid veterans from fantasy owners who are looking to get younger and build for the future, and Guice is still an incredibly enticing piece. Could you turn into a solid, startable wide receiver of the Jarvis Landry/Cooper Kupp tier? Possibly! For a running back with a little more of a settled situation in their backfield? Maybe! Could you get one of the second-tier tight ends for Guice if that's a spot you need help? It's quite probable!

Basically, Guice can be a great trade chip on a team that doesn't have the time to wait for the Washington backfield situation to make more sense. He'd also be great in a package deal to go after a star from a team that's looking to move on from an older, strong player.


Final Verdict

What you should do with Guice depends a lot on the makeup of your team. I've got him in one league, on a team that went from the champion in 2017 to out of the playoffs last year, and I don't think my team is strong enough for me to bother with trying to deal Guice away for some win-now help.

In my other dynasty league, my team is even farther away from contention, and I've got some vets that aren't helping me win and aren't helping me lose. That's the situation where I want to see how much Guice costs and if he's available without me needing to dip into my draft picks.

Or maybe I do dip into those picks. Guice's outlook is better, in my opinion, than the backs you can get in this year's draft, so if I can get him by giving up a later first round pick? I'd be very interested. (Sadly for me, I'm not in any leagues where I find myself in that situation -- last year was a rebuilding year in both of my dynasty leagues thanks to a variety of factors, including the Guice injury in one.)

Buy if rebuilding. Sell if trying to win now and you can get more immediate help.

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