Devin Funchess (WR, IND) - 2019 Fantasy Football Sleeper

August 30, 2019

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Devin Funchess may be a fantasy football sleeper and draft value now that he is part of the Colts offense, despite the loss of Andrew Luck. Antonio Losada analyzes Funchess' value as a WR in a new offensive environment.

I have to admit that my relationship with Devin Funchess in fantasy terms is one of love and hate. I can't help but see a player with a lot of upside being totally overlooked on average by every owner out there. At the same time, there are some glaring concerns in his game that can easily lead to that cautionary approach when considering drafting him. A change in scenery, though, should help his performance. Going from Cam Newton to Jacoby Brissett doesn't scream improvement, but we saw what happened with Eric Ebron when he moved to the Colts, and we can only hope the same is on schedule for Funchess.

Funchess' career up to now doesn't scream WR1. Nor WR2, probably. His highest number of targets in a season was 111 in 2017 when he became the leading receiver of Carolina's offense. Receiver, I said, because then-rookie running back Christian McCaffrey finished the season with 113, surpassing the wideout. Accustomed to low-volume targets, though, may play to his advantage as he's expected to take on the No. 2 WR role in Indianapolis behind T.Y. Hilton. The problem with the low number of times he has been targeted, though, comes when it is paired with his putrid 55.7% catch rate. Of wide receivers with at least five targets per game in 2018, that mark was the 11th-worst (among 65 players).

Those buttery hands are reason enough for concern. In 79 targets in 2018, Funchess was able to rack up 549 yards (12.48 per reception), averaging numbers around the middle of the WR pack league-wide. The fact that he had far fewer opportunities to contribute than most WR1 and WR2 should see him improve his numbers with higher participation in the Colts offense. As a complement to T.Y. Hilton, one of Funchess' game facets that pops up in his profile is the average target distance. Though not mind-blowing, 12.7 yards were good enough to rank him 36th in that metric.

Becoming Indianapolis' Third-Best Option

Looking at NFL's NextGen stats, Funchess only posted 1.8 yards after the catch per reception, good (or bad, depending on how you look at it) for the second-worst number among WR/TE only behind Chad Williams. Expected stats, though, tell another story. Funchess should have been expected to get 2.6 YAC/R. That minus-0.8 YAC/R-xYAC/R difference was the 15th-lowest in the league, so it is reasonable to expect an uptick in performance there due to regression.

All in all, it is clear that Funchess should by no means be your top wide receiver target, but he can turn into a serviceable one given his new surroundings and the situation he's stepping into. He will have tough competition in terms of target share in Indianapolis, but he could easily be the second-most targetted receiver by Brissett. Hilton is going to snatch more targets than any other player while Eric Ebron is expected to also be heavily used on offense given his (unsustainable) production last season.

Experts are slotting Funchess a little higher than his ADP is at right now. He's valued as around the 50th-best WR and projected as a 10th-to-12th round pick in PPR league drafts. While you shouldn't target Funchess earlier than the ninth round at most, he has been picked as early as in the sixth by some. Just one month ago, Funchess' ADP put him as an early 13th-rounder. Today, his ADP is that of a late 11th-rounder and rising on a daily basis. Depending on the group of owners that are part of your league he could even go undrafted, at which point I'd definitely advise going after him.

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