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Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker had a career year and enters the 2020 NFL season as a top dynasty asset for fantasy football. Aaron Schillinger determines if Parker is a solid hold or sell-high candidate in the offseason.
Well, it finally happened. After five years in the NFL, DeVante Parker finally broke out. Parker just turned 27 years old and in 2019 he saw a career-high in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Not only did Parker break out, but he finished as the WR6 in Standard scoring leagues and as the WR11 in PPR scoring leagues.
If you own Parker, there's probably a good chance that you weren't expecting this season at all, after using an early dynasty rookie draft pick on him back in 2015. Not only has Parker been a bust since entering the league, but he has finished as a WR4 or worse in every season outside of this year.
PPR Scoring
2019: WR11
2018: WR105
2017: WR50
2016: WR50
2015: WR75
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Pros
With Parker, the biggest pro that he has going for him is that he came into the league as a very highly-touted prospect due to his athletic profile. His rookie profile was great and he warranted a high rookie draft pick in your dynasty leagues back in 2015. If you're a believer that Adam Gase was the biggest issue with Dolphins over the last few seasons, you're definitely not alone there. We've seen Kenyan Drake go to Arizona and have some games where he put up great numbers when given the opportunity. In the first year that Gase was out of Miami, Parker balled out and was a WR1. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.
Another pro with Parker is that moving forward the Dolphins are likely either rolling with Ryan Fitzpatrick or a rookie quarterback. Fitzpatrick took the fantasy world by storm in 2018 when he came in for Tampa Bay. After heading to Miami, 'Fitzmagic' definitely wasn't as good, but he started in 13 games and threw for over 3,500+ yards and 20 touchdowns. Fitzpatrick finished the year with 311 completions on 502 pass attempts. If Fitzpatrick is back, he's likely going to air it out and Parker should be the top receiving option in that offense again. If the Dolphins go with a rookie, as of now I'd expect it to be Tua Tagovailoa, who would likely start later in the season, giving Parker more time with Fitzpatrick.
Cons
The biggest con that comes with Parker is that he simply has been terrible for the majority of his NFL career. In his first four seasons, Parker has been virtually unstartable for fantasy purposes and never even finished as a WR4. Regardless of how good of a prospect someone might be, if they're that bad for four straight seasons, I'm not buying in after one good season.
Preston Williams is also returning in 2020 after starting off strong then heading to the injured reserve with a torn ACL back in November. Really, Parker was the only option on that offense last year, and I expect Mike Gesicki, Williams, and a likely rookie running back to take targets away from Parker next year. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins take advantage of this deep 2020 wide receiver class and bring in another weapon, considering all 14 of their 2020 draft picks, including three first-round picks and two second-round picks. Also, I would be very surprised if he sees 128 targets again as he did in 2019.
Conclusion
If you own Parker, I'd highly recommend selling high on him if you can. According to RotoBaller's consensus PPR dynasty rankings, Parker is currently the WR31. If someone takes this long to break out and has been this bad for the majority of his time in the NFL, I'm not buying in now regardless of how good of a prospect he is. If you do believe in Parker, you can hold and see how it plays out, but I wouldn't expect more than a WR2 finish at best for 2020 and beyond. Take advantage of his inflated value and bring back younger talent at WR in return.
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