Deebo Samuel (WR, SF) - Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups

October 1, 2019

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver (WR) Deebo Samuel is a fantasy football waiver wire pickup to target as a free agent addition for Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season.

BALLER MOVE: Add in 14+ Team Leagues

OWNED IN: 26% of Leagues

ANALYSIS: Believe it or not, Deebo Samuel is still available in three out of four leagues out there. Yes, he's not the no- 1 option in San Francisco's offense. Yes, his raw numbers don't jump off the page at first sight. Yes, he is a rookie. But he's shown enough to me as to consider him a player on the rise with all of the upside in him going forward if trusted and given more opportunities. We're talking about a 36th draft pick in 2019. Can it take time to adapt? Yes. Will things get better and better as the season goes on? You bet.

In the flexible and ever-changing 49ers offense, Deebo Samuel splits time aligned both wide and at the slot. Through three weeks (San Francisco had a Week 4 bye), he has played in 130 snaps, only second to Marquise Goodwin's 140. There are just no competitors other than Goodwin for the rookie in terms of wide receivers, and the only other weapon of this 49ers offense is George Kittle at tight end. Even with that, Only Kittle has more targets (21) than Samuel (14) in the first three games of the season. Samuel also ranks second in receiving yards with 147 on 11 receptions and has a touchdown to his name (something Kittle hasn't).

While it is true that other rookies have had more flashing starts to their careers, Samuel has gone totally under the radar for some reason. In a reduced number of targets compared to other newcomers at the position, he has done the same or more than them. His 10.5 yards per target ranked fourth among rookies with more than 10 targets through Week 3,  his 78.6 catch rate was clearly leading the pack by 12 percentage points over Terry McLaurin's 66.7%, and his 10.8 fantasy points per game are sixth in that group.

Samuel comes off San Francisco's bye week facing Cleveland in Week 5. While it is not the easiest of matchups, I don't think I could have made it clearer that Samuel is one of the best weapons Garoppolo has at hand this season, and he will probably get better. The only reason I can think of for his low ownership rate are his peaks and valleys in fantasy points (1.7, then 15.3, then 4.4). I expect those to stabilize, though, and by that time (which could be closer than you think) Samuel could easily become a weekly WR3/Flex play with upside for high-end WR2 production.