RADIO
In just a few short weeks, the world will finally know where Victor Wembanyama will play basketball next season. From a fantasy perspective, the consensus is that Wemby will be a once-in-a-lifetime unicorn regardless of where he lands. For crying out loud, he's the most hyped-up NBA prospect since LeBron James and his skillset appears to have been bred for fantasy hoops. The kid is going to be elite.
Looking at the current odds for the first pick, however, shows that there is a tight race between five teams: the Pistons, Rockets, Spurs, Hornets, and Blazers. Each of these franchises has been given at least a 10% chance of being awarded the first overall pick. Here is a full picture of how all 14 teams currently stack up to the oddsmakers:
| Pistons | 14.0% |
| Rockets | 14.0% |
| Spurs | 14.0% |
| Hornets | 12.5% |
| Trail Blazers | 10.5% |
| Magic | 9.0% |
| Pacers | 6.8% |
| Wizards | 6.7% |
| Jazz | 4.5% |
| Mavericks | 3.0% |
| Chicago | 1.8% |
| Oklahoma City | 1.7% |
| Toronto | 1.0% |
| New Orleans | 0.5% |
While we've already established that Wemby's talent and pedigree will make him an elite fantasy option regardless of his landing spot, it appears that a few franchises could raise his fantasy ceiling a bit higher than the rest. Sure, we are splitting hairs here but isn't that what we do in fantasy hoops? Here are the best fantasy landing spots for Wembanyama among each of the five teams with at least a 10% chance of securing the top pick.
1. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs finished last season with a record of 22-60 and while that is abysmal on paper, it's exactly what was expected. The organization tipped their cap at their diabolical plan to tank for Wemby after they dealt Dejounte Murray to the Hawks last offseason for three first-round picks. This was their plan all along.
As poor as their play was on paper, they were elite at one thing: speed. The Spurs played fast, finishing second behind only the Golden State Warriors in PACE rating (103.4). This is significant for fantasy purposes, as a team's pace can directly influence the opportunities a player has to produce. It's just simple math. The more shots a player takes, the more shots he'll make. The more shots a player defends, the more blocks he'll rack up. Get the picture? A fast-paced environment connected to his freakish talent would be off the charts for his fantasy production.
Victor Wembanyana just had a putback dunk off his own missed 3-pointer 😯
📹: @NBA pic.twitter.com/huXM5pQ8l2
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) April 2, 2023
Outside of their fast-paced style of play, the Spurs are a storied franchise with a legendary coach and a proven system. While last season's poor record can be all but chalked up to growing pains, a trail of breadcrumbs within the numbers describes a team on the rise. The Spurs finished last season top-10 in assist ratio (18.8), as their slew of young talent play well alongside each other in their respective roles. Adding Wemby to a young core of Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Tre Jones looks like a seamless fit on paper, both in real life and in fantasy.
2. Portland Trail Blazers
Okay, I'm having some fun with this one. The odds are the Blazers will not be awarded the first overall pick with their 10.5% chance, but we've seen crazier things happen. All that aside, Wembanyama is all that this franchise needs to buy some more time with Damian Lillard. Secretly, I think I just want to see what a defensive frontcourt of Wemby and Matisse Thybulle looks like.
In all seriousness, a one-two punch of Lillard/Wemby would be a daunting task to defend. Throw in Anfernee Simons and his impressive off-ball shooting metrics and you would have a well-oiled machine. Wemby's presence would massively benefit Portland as well, being that two of their biggest weaknesses happen to be his strengths: Defense and Rebounding. The Blazers finished last season with the fourth-worst defensive rating (115.7) and the sixth-worst rebounding rate.
Unlike the other four teams with greater than 10% odds to land the top pick, Portland has enough pieces to contend if it were to land someone of Wemby's caliber. And with all the playmaking on the roster, the soon-to-be first-overall pick would be set up to flourish in fantasy.
Don't forget, we're only three years removed from the New Orleans Pelicans securing the top pick with 6% odds. They were awarded Zion Williamson as a result. We've seen crazier things happen!
3. Detroit Pistons
In full transparency, I originally had the Pistons slotted last on this list. But after doing a deep dive, I've had a change of heart. I think we all just have some Dwane Casey fantasy fatigue of some form or another, even though he's no longer the head coach.
Alright, close your eyes and imagine a starting lineup of the following: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Wembanyama, and Jalen Duren. Now go ahead and convince me they wouldn't be a playoff team if they could remain healthy. Add in Killian Hayes and a couple of trusted vets off the bench and you have yourself a dark horse. At the very least, this team would be fun to watch and it would certainly inject some more life into the Motor City. Defenses would simply have no answer for a Cunningham/Wemby PnR. Spam that and put Bogdanovic in the corner. Unstoppable.
Fun Fact: With Victor Wembanyana’s 9’7 standing reach, he’d only need around a minimum 8 inch vertical to dunk.
For reference, Anthony Davis’ standing reach coming into the NBA was 9’0. pic.twitter.com/9CS6q5JFxC
— 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙡𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙣 (@TheFlarescreen) July 3, 2022
From a fantasy standpoint, the seamless fit and roster build of Detroit should make things easier on Wemby. As a result, we would see higher percentages across the board. There appears to be more room for rebounds as well. Detroit had the seventh-worst rebounding rate last season, despite having Duren on the roster. Could this add an extra rebound or two to his final per-game tally when all is said and done? Absolutely. And while that may not seem like much right now, it certainly has the power to bump him up or down a few spots throughout the season.
Who the Pistons choose to hire as their next head coach is of utmost importance. Realistically, they are one Nick Nurse hiring away from catapulting up to the number one spot on this list.
4. Houston Rockets
I've been debating putting the Hornets here, mainly due to LaMelo Ball, but I'm going to stick with my gut and roll with the Rockets. Much like the Spurs, Houston was a sorry team last season. The only difference was how embarrassing their brand of basketball was. They very quickly became the laughingstock of the league with their porous offensive possessions that could only make Dillon Brooks proud.
Their poor play influenced change throughout the entire organization. As a result, in comes former Boston Celtics head coach Ime Udoka. Just one calendar year removed from leading his team to the Finals, Udoka brings an entirely different system and culture than what Stephen Silas brought last season. This will be a far cry from the Rockets team that stunk up the league last season. At least it should be.
Factoring in the regime change and the pieces currently on the roster, I have no choice but to list them ahead of the Hornets. For one, going to Houston would allow Wemby to share the frontcourt with one of the most talented playmaking big men in the league outside of Nikola Jokic. Alperen Sengun averaged nearly 4.0 assists per game last season in less than 29 minutes. Imagine the two-man game we would see from the pair. There will, of course, be some tough lineup decisions to make with Jabari Smith in the mix. Would he play off the bench? Can he play the small forward? All questions that will need to be answered should Wemby wind up in Houston.
All in all, a young core of playmakers with a capable head coach excites me when thinking about Wembanyama's fantasy prospects.
5. Charlotte Hornets
Sure, the playmaking is there with LaMelo Ball, but that's about it. Ultimately, the expectation and faith in Houston's new coaching staff and organization are what lead me to place them ahead of Charlotte. At the end of the day, I just trust them less.
This feels like a good time for me to reiterate that we are splitting hairs here. It doesn't matter where Wemby goes inside the lottery. He will be a focal point and elite production should follow. That said, Miles Bridges will be back after 10 games and P.J. Washington (RFA) could be back as well. Regardless of what you think of them off the court, they are capable players. Out of every team discussed in this piece, it's quite possible that Charlotte could have the most able bodies in the frontcourt. Could this impact Wemby's fantasy output even a smidge? It's certainly possible.
Outside of that, getting the chance to play with Ball would just be fun. Much like Sengun, Ball is an elite passer who seems to find joy in dishing the rock. And most of his highlight assists come in transition, which is something Charlotte likes to do. Just like the Spurs, the Hornets finished with the eighth-highest PACE rating (102.6) last season. Pairing Ball and Wemby in a fast-paced environment is about the only thing that excites me about him joining the Hornets.
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