November 7, 2017

Milos Zvekic's buy low, sell high trade advice for Week 4 of fantasy NBA. His buy/hold/sell recommendations for Otto Porter and Trevor Ariza in fantasy basketball leagues.

As always this early in the season, some players have exploded while others are still trying to find their groove. As always here at RotoBaller, we are trying to find those guys who can't keep this up and advise you to try and get extra value for them while they're at their peak, and those who haven't shown what they're made of yet and may be available for pennies on the dollar if their owner is loosing his patience.

This week, we have two wing players with similar strengths but opposite starts to the season. While the youngster is cruising so far, the veteran has been struggling at the beginning. He has restored some faith in his abilities, but if an owner has stamped him as unworthy of a roster spot over the first two weeks, he still might come at a discount.

Let's take a look at who has been lighting it up and who has his owners disappointed this early in the season in our Week 4 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high column right here at RotoBaller.

Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 4

Are You for Real, Otto Porter?

Otto Porter has been spoiling his fantasy owners since the beginning of last season. He smashed his ADP in 2016/17 by finishing in the top-50 by any criteria, and even in top-20 in some leagues, depending on the league's scoring. That kind of performance didn't go unnoticed by fantasy managers and Otto was taken on average from the 43.4 pick this year. Once again, he is overwhelming with some amazing performances.

Porter is averaging  18.3 points with 2.6 threes on 56.9% from the field and 69.2% from the line, along with 6.9 boards, 1.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.8 turnovers in 33 minutes through his first 8. If his FT% was at last year's level of 83.2% this all-around production would be hard to beat. Despite his poor free throws he is able to pull off top-20 production again, even top-10 in some leagues which have scoring types that benefit Porter's strengths.

Otto has seen some increased workload with Markieff Morris out for the first six games, and with Kelly Oubre Jr. playing this well, he could see his minutes dip a bit. Still, Porter will be a useful fantasy contributor and a rotisserie dream. But it's difficult to imagine that he can remain THIS useful.

He is currently shooting lights out from beyond the arc by hitting 52.5% of his 5.0 attempts a night. Now, although Otto did shoot 43.4% from distance last season, over 50% is simply not sustainable. Furthermore, Otto also upped his points, steals, blocks, threes, rebounds and assists from last year. And while it is a natural development for him to be getting better, an improvement of 4.9 points, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 0.7 threes, 0.5 rebounds and 0.3 assists is just a bit too much.

If Otto is not a vital part of your team and you didn't build a well-balanced, all-around squad, you may find an owner who is too high on him right now and maybe a bit low on one of his own players. I would swap Otto in a heartbeat for the likes of Myles Turner, Kyrie Irving, or Paul George, so if such an opportunity comes up don't be afraid to pull the trigger.

Baller Move: Sell high

Time to Panic on Trevor Ariza?

Ariza gave his owners a scare early on in the season with some abysmal shooting displays and even an injury alert. In his first four games of the season he didn't score in double digits, he failed to hit a single field goal twice and connected on only three shots from down town. He didn't miss a free throw though and his rebounds, assists and steals did salvage his line a bit, to be fair. But then, to make matters worse, he got injured and it wasn't clear how long he would be out for. His owners were disappointed and the buy low window was wide open.

Trevor got back to the court after two games on the sidelines and started playing better. He hit double digits in four of his last five, while contributing 13 threes, 26 rebounds, 16 assists and five steals in that period. Now that's more like it. Ariza is back to his old ways, and Houston's offense is running like clockwork even without their new star point guard Chris Paul. The Rockets currently sit at the top of the West.

Still, Ariza has just barely cracked top-100 and depending on how much he hurt his owner in his depressing period, he could still be found at a discount. I would gladly swap a guy like Danilo Gallinari, Robin Lopez or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Ariza in a re-draft league, especially with Houston having a favorable 11 games during the fantasy playoffs.

Baller Move: Hold or buy low

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