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Buy, Sell or Hold: Elfrid Payton and Chris Paul?


Photo_Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA

We're getting terribly close to fantasy playoffs and there may be some owners panicking about their stars being in a rut, or others envious of your players that are doing well at the moment. In case your trade deadline hasn't hit yet you might be able to use that to your advantage and pull off a last second trade which will improve your team just enough to win that competitive league of yours.

We are looking at some over- and under-achievers in our Week 20 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high column here at RotoBaller. It will be our last one for this season so I wish you all a lot of luck in these final few weeks of your fantasy seasona. It's been a blast sharing my thoughts with you and I hope that some of my advice helps you win your fantasy league.

I would really appreciate any feedback, positive or negative, from you guys that have read some of my articles. I'd love to hear from all of your readers, hear your opinions and try to improve my writing as much as I can. In the end, you guys are the reason we are here. So hit me up either on our chat here at RotoBaller, on twitter @zvekete_RB or on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/zvekete.RotoBaller.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NBA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive Preseason Draft Kit, 10 In-Season Lineup/DFS tools, and daily Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 20

Are You for Real, Elfrid Payton?

Elfrid Payton posted a triple-double. Come again!? Well he did! Two straight triple-doubles from Payton have him in our Are You for Real section this week. Now Nikola Vucevic being out for those two games might have put the Magic offense into Payton's hands a bit more, but I'm not going to argue that he isn't a talented player. Not at all. I believe you have to be at least a little special to have an achievement like that attached to your name.

And Elfrid's been beasting lately with averages of 13.7 PTS on 58.5 FG% and 83.3 FT%, 8.8 REB, 8.0 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.8 BLK and 2.2 TO in 29 minutes a game in his last 6. He's returning top-20 value in that span. But for a guy who's a 44.3% field goal and 60.1% free throw shooter, those percentages are not sustainable. And neither are those insane rebounds, assists or blocks, because, let's face it, Payton is no Russell Westbrook, is he?

If you have an opportunity to use Payton's unreal performances to get yourself a proven player that will fit your team and it's playoff schedule, I would do so if I wore your shoes. A top-30, top-35 player would be enough to persuade me to let go of a lackluster dream that Payton will keep this up for another 3-4 weeks. I would take a Paul Millsap, Serge Ibaka or Otto Porter, who still seems to be a terribly underestimated fantasy contributor who is furthermore riding a cold wave. Moreover, all of these three players have a game or two more than Elfrid's 10 in Weeks 20-22, with Millsap and Ibaka playing 11 times and Porter's Washington scheduled to take the court 12 times in that period.

Baller Move: Sell high

Time to Panic on Chris Paul?

You just can't not trust Chris Paul. Yes, he's been injured this season. Yes, he got injured in last year's playoffs as well. Yes, that makes him difficult to own in fantasy because there's a real risk that his coach, Doc Rivers, opts to give him a rest day or two right when it hurts fantasy owners the most, during our playoffs. But he is still one of the greatest playmakers in the NBA and a top-10 fantasy option when he's playing on his level.

But he hasn't been playing on that level lately. He's averaged a mere 13.0 points with 2.0 3-pointers on 45.8% from the field while missing his only free throw, 3.5 boards, 8.5 dimes, 0.5 steals, no blocks and 2.5 turnovers in 30 minutes per contest in his last two. Furthermore, he has just 30 assists compared to 15 turnovers in his last five outings. That's not the CP3 we all know.

But it's still CP3! There's no doubt in my mind that he will turn it around soon with his Clippers battling it out with Utah for that fourth spot in the West and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. And they have a favorable fantasy schedule too, playing 4 and 5 games in Weeks 20 and 21, which is more than any other team.

So if you can obtain Paul's services for pennies on the dollar, however risky it might be, I would still do it. I trust him, even with his shaky late-season injury history, more than the likes of Kristaps Porzingis or either one of the two hot PGs Goran Dragic and Elfrid Payton. All three of those players have only 10 games in the default fantasy playoffs, by the way. So if Paul's owner is panicking, I would pounce on the opportunity, and if it bites me on the ass, so be it. At least I've tried.

Baller Move: Hold or buy low