ADP Fallers at Quarterback - Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett, Drew Lock

June 17, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at the ADP fallers at quarterback to assess their fantasy football draft value.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-May to mid-June using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three quarterback fallers.

Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

On June 1, we got to know the fact that Watson will be facing a 24th civil lawsuit after the 23rd came on May 31. As I'm writing this on Thursday, Jun. 16, news just dropped from Watson's attorney claiming two more lawsuits are now on Watson's ample collection. This thing, very obviously and reasonably, has fantasy GMs and every living breathing organism worried--and not precisely about Watson's well-being.

Anyway, and focusing purely on fantasy football here as that's what you came looking for, the thing is that it looks more and more obvious each passing day that Watson will be suspended for at least one game by the NFL. There is just no escape for him at this point, and although the NFL has reportedly finished their rounds of interviews with the QB, a final decision on a suspension is yet to come.

Watson could miss a lot more time, though, with Cleveland seemingly having included void options in Watson's deal in case he gets massively suspended for his off-field issues and misconduct. The ADP is currently at around 120 OVR or QB18 if you prefer. There is nothing crazy in a plummeting ADP given Watson's situation and the more it sinks, the better it'll get. That said, overpaying to secure him or even spending a pick in what could be a non-starter for the season... welp.

Of course, this is turning into the clear storyline of the offseason in terms of boom/bust, all-or-nothing upside. You can be drafting a top-12 quarterback at the price of a mediocre top-25 passer, or you could be drafting a no-fantasy-point quarterback while wasting a valuable draft pick in the process. Pro-tip, just in case: pencil in Jacoby Brissett as the QB2 of the Browns--Baker Mayfield is buried in Cleveland assuming he stays there at all.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

Former Pittsburgh Panther and current Pittsburgh Steeler QB Kenny Pickett's ADP has dropped all the way down to around the 225th overall pick in fantasy football drafts compared to where it was a couple of weeks ago. Only Pickett, teammate Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, and Drew Lock have ADPs above the 200th pick among projected 2022 NFL starters, whoever ends up manning the Steelers pocket. That tells you all you need to know about this pairing. For starters, one is a rookie and the other is a mediocre/average-at-best quarterback, so it's looking like a no-no whatever angle you look at this thing from.

Most recently, Pickett has accepted the third-quarterback role in the depth chart. Keyword: third. That's new, folks. Pickett was always considered Trubisky's understudy but it now feels like Pittsburgh is putting even Mason Rudolph ahead of the rook. Of course, if the freshman puts on a monster summer camp, then the QB1 will be all wide open for him to snatch that starting role from Trubisky, though it's going to be a slim chance for that to actually happen. The ADP can't literally fall further down the list and not even then is Pickett a reasonable pick in any sort of re-draft/non-dynasty league. And neither should Trubisky be unless you're in some sort of Superflex/2-QB competition.

Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks

Nothing substantial going on when it comes to Lock's ADP as it's "only" down 16 picks from the last days of May. Pretty much as is the case with Pickett/Trubisky discussed above, Lock is a bona fide starter with a middling skill set just not worth a draft pick in most (99%) of fantasy leagues and contests. Yes, DK Metcalf is still a Seahawk. Sure, Tyler Lockett still has some juice in him. Alright, Noah Fant has a rapport with Lock and improves on whatever Will Dissly is up to. But... nope.

Lock's ADP is sitting at 300+ these days, which is absolutely insane in terms of depth (the 25th round in 12-team leagues, just for context). Lock, though, has a projection (via PFF) of 208.6 FP for next season starting all 17 games with Seattle. We don't know if that will materialize or not, but strictly looking at the projections, things aren't looking great for Lock even if that's the case. PFF sees Lock as the 31st-best QB next year with Trubisky dead-last in the starter ranks. What I'm saying, in five simple words, is that you should not draft Lock.

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