Don't Believe The Hype - Overdrafted Players in 2020

June 27, 2020

Gage Bridgford examines three highly-drafted players in 2020 fantasy football leagues that could be overvalued based on ADP. These players could be busts and players to avoid.

While the 2020-21 season still has some question marks due to the lingering effects of the Coronavirus, the hope is that it will be there. The season is right around the corner and drafts are heating up. With that in mind, you're seeing some players get drafted where they probably shouldn't. Guys are slipping too far, but we're looking today at players that are being overdrafted at their current ADP.

Every year, we see players that get way more hype than they should because they have an impressive workout video or they are expected to take on a new role with the players ahead of them now gone. Last year, right before the season got started, we had players like James Conner, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell all being drafted in the first round. We don't want to be the guys with egg on their faces because we reached for a player we were infatuated with for one reason or another.

Part of this stems from your draft strategy. If you're married to zero RB or WR early on, you're more prone to making a mistake as a result. You may reach for a player just because it fits the strategy, and you're ignoring red flags that would cause you to draft someone else. Let's quit stalling and see who we should be ignoring.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

Current ADP: 2.08

I get it. I get that the Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the NFL over the last two years and Andy Reid consistently puts his running backs in a position to succeed. They just drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round, so he should be poised for a big year in this offense that gives him lots of room to work. Despite all of that, I don't understand how he's being drafted so highly already. We haven't even seen him do an offseason workout or minicamp with the franchise, and he's being crowned already as an RB1.

Before his 2019 season, he had 831 total yards from scrimmage in his career. He couldn't beat out Nick Brosette, who went undrafted before going to the XFL and now the New England Patriots. I'm not tearing down the year he had and how impressive it was, but I am saying that we need to pump the breaks before we start drafting this guy as the 14th running back off of the board. Oh, did I forget to mention that teammate Damien Williams is still in the building?

Williams was a draft bust himself based on a late-second/early-third round price but he ended on a solid note in the second half of the year. He even had a legitimate case to be the Super Bowl MVP five months ago. He's not going to just disappear, and Reid has had no issue changing hands when one player isn't getting the job done. I think Edwards-Helaire could possibly pull away as the season wears on, but I'm not going to draft a player in a committee until proven otherwise that early when other clear bellcows are available.

Melvin Gordon III (RB, DEN)

Current ADP: 3.05

I'm probably a little bias on this one because I've never been a huge fan of Melvin Gordon for fantasy, but I don't know how his ADP continues to remain high. He's been reliant on volume to finish well for fantasy throughout his career, and I'm not convinced that he's going to get a full workload this year. Teammate Phillip Lindsay has gotten over the 1,000-yard mark in each of the last two seasons, and he's caught 35 balls in each season. While Gordon's ADP is in the third, Lindsay is in the ninth.

Gordon has averaged just 4.0 yards per carry for his career, and that is heavily elevated by his average of 5.1 yards per carry in 2018. Outside of that year, he's never averaged over 3.9 yards per tote. He brings something in the receiving game with at least 40 catches in each of the past four seasons, but that's not enough for me to completely overlook his inefficiency in the running game.

There's a path to Gordon finishing as a RB2, but it's not a clear one. Denver has been reliant on a committee approach at the running back position over the last two years, and I don't know that Gordon is talented enough to beat out Lindsay or even Royce Freeman. Plus, they added a number of pass-catching weapons this offseason that could indicate a slight shift in the offense's mentality.

Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)

Current ADP: 6.04

I don't think that Brown's ADP is overly egregious, but I do think it's too high considering some of the players he's being drafted in front of. A few guys that you can get after Hollywood include: Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Tyler Boyd. Two of those three guys finished as fantasy WR1s last season, and Boyd missed out by 15 points. For comparison, Brown finished as WR46 in 14 games. On a per-game basis, he averaged just 10.5 points. On an offense that focuses more on the running game with a QB that could see passing TD regression, there isn't a great path for him.

Brown had just 584 receiving yards last season on 46 receptions. That's a 12.7 yards per catch average which is pretty surprising considering he averaged over 18 yards per catch in college. Although, it does make since when considering the way the offense is designed around quarterback Lamar Jackson. For a player with the speed that Brown possesses, you'd like to see him make more plays down the field, and that's what you're banking on with him being drafted this highly.

The Ravens' offense isn't designed to support a wide receiver that puts up elite fantasy production. Instead, they're set up to have the passing game complement the running game. They also run things through the tight end position more, as evidenced by Mark Andrews' career year in 2019, than a lot of teams. I like Brown later in the draft as a lottery ticket wide receiver, which means I'm more than willing to ignore him at his current ADP.

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