Veteran QBs to Fade After the NFL Draft  

May 24, 2020

Rishi Patel identifies starting quarterbacks whose fantasy football value is falling after the 2020 NFL Draft. These QBs could be busts and overvalued draft targets.

The 2020 draft was interesting in the sense that several QBs saw their potential successors getting drafted (*cough Aaron Rodgers cough*). Though this may spell bad news, the newbies starting immediately is not likely in many situations.

So, for the 2020 season, guys like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, and Dak Prescott should not have anything to worry about despite the addition of rookie or veteran QBs to their team roster. This is good news for their fantasy value.

However, other QBs in the league may have something to get nervous about in terms of a young buck taking their playing time. This should also spell concern for owners looking to draft said QBs. Though they may not be top-tier fantasy options, let’s look at some veteran QBs to worry about the most:

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts

At 38 years old, Rivers has come to Indy to continue his stellar career, but his obvious decline was a reason his longtime employer, the Los Angeles Chargers, parted ways with him this offseason.

Rivers can still prove serviceable in fantasy, probably as a backup. Nevertheless, if the struggle continues, Rivers may be benched especially since the Colts drafted a potential successor in Washington QB Jacob Eason.

Rivers performed decently last year with the Chargers, but his picks were a problem. Overall, he finished with 4,615 yards, a 66% completion rate, 23 touchdowns (lowest since 2007), 20 picks, 288.4 yards per game, and a quarterback rating of 88.9.

Obviously, the concern with Rivers lies with his touchdown to interception ratio. The number of picks is a killer for fantasy teams, and owners need to be aware of this during the upcoming draft. The picks got especially bad last year, as the QB only threw 10 and 12 picks in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Fumbles were also a concern too, as the NC State product had eight of them last year. As for poor throws per pass attempt, Rivers had a 15.4% rate.

Unfortunately, Rivers doesn’t offer much rushing abilities either, as he has a career 609 rush yards in 16 seasons and only had 29 last year.

In college, Eason finished his three- year career (two at Georgia, one at Washington) with an overall 59.8 % completion rate, 5,590 yards, 39 touchdowns, 16 picks, and a passer efficiency rating of 132.3. Last season at Washington was his best college season, as he finished with 64.2 % completion, 3,132 yards, 23 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer efficiency rating of 143.9.

There is no doubt Indy is thinking about life post-Rivers by drafting Eason, but that could come soon if the veteran doesn’t play up-to-par. This is also considering that QB2 Jacoby Brissett is not viewed as a long-term answer either.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Though the Las Vegas Raiders didn’t draft a QB in the draft, they did sign former Number 2 pick Marcus Mariota from the Titans in free agency. This may spell a slight bit of nervousness for owners potentially considering Carr because there have been many rumors about QB changes in Vegas recently.

Let’s be clear, the younger Carr hasn’t been an elite fantasy option in his six-year career, but has proved serviceable as a starter in larger re-draft leagues. Last season, he finished with 4,054 yards, 70.4% completion, 21 touchdowns, eight picks, seven fumbles, and 253.4 yards per game. His accuracy was not bad, as he finished with an 11% poor throw per pass attempt rate.

Thus, he finished 17^th among active fantasy QBs last season. Carr doesn’t offer much rushing upside, unfortunately, getting 82 yards last season with two touchdowns.

Overall, his stats from last season prove he can at least be a great backup or even weekly starter for owners depending on the matchup. However, the presence of Mariota certainly should be in the back of owners’ heads if Carr were to struggle too much.

Tyrod Taylor, Los Angeles Chargers

Like with Philip Rivers, the Los Angeles Chargers also drafted a QB in Oregon’s Justin Herbert to eventually take the starting role. This spells bad news for veteran and projected QB starter, Tyrod Taylor. Though he isn’t a hyped fantasy option for 2020 anyway, the presence of Herbert should concern fantasy owners about Taylor’s value.

The last time Taylor played a full season was three years ago in 2017 on Buffalo. He finished with 2,799 yards, 14 touchdowns, four fumbles, and four picks, and averaged 186.6 yards per game. He also rushed for 427 yards and four touchdowns. Throughout nine career seasons, Taylor has only played double-digit games in three of them (2015-2017), and there is a risk in drafting him only to see Herbert begin starting midway through the season. In addition, his last sample size translates to the soon-to-be 31-year-old offering modest fantasy value anyway.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

As enchanting as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Fitzmagic, can be in fantasy (at times), the Dolphins obviously took Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa at number 5 for a reason, and Fitzpatrick is nothing more than a bridge QB until the new successor is groomed and ready for NFL action.

That exact timetable is unknown at this moment, so the 37-year-old should head into the 2020 season as the Miami starter, but the inevitable could happen any time, especially if fans keep yelling for Tua to start. Nevertheless, it’s important to consider Tua had hip surgery performed on him last November, so the team may take a cautious approach.

As a fantasy option, Fitzpatrick can be maddening for his sometimes brilliant and sometimes lackluster performances. Last season, he finished with 3,529 yards (highest since 2015), 62 % completion, 20 touchdowns (highest since 2015), 13 interceptions, and 235.3 yards per game. He also had a quarterback rating of 85.5. The journeyman had a 17.7 % poor throws per pass attempt rate. He also rushed for 243 yards and four touchdowns.

Luckily, Miami improved its offensive line by drafting OT Austin Jackson (USC) and OL Robert Hunt (Louisiana-Lafayette), along with signing center Ted Karras from New England. After all, Fitzpatrick got sacked a career-high 40 times, hurried 48 times, and hit 66 times.

You could take a chance on the QB in very deep leagues (14 teams), but it’s better to have him as a backup overall considering he is likely not the most reliable option to be starting weekly.

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