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2015 Could be a Bounce-Back Year for Victorino
Looking at the current Red Sox 2015 outfield, there are plenty of guys who will be sharing at bats. Heading into Spring Training, the Sox will have recent signings Hanley Ramirez and Rusney Castillo entrenched as regulars, as well as Daniel Nava, Allen Craig, Shane Victorino and youngsters Jackie Bradley Jr. and Bryce Brentz in the outfield.
Considering he missed all but 30 games in 2014, Shane Victorino is a big risk for fantasy owners in terms of health. Throw in his declining production and the deep outfield competition he'll face in Boston, and you have the recipe for a player who should go extremely late in drafts, most likely in the mid-300s. If you have faith that Victorino can stay healthy, you'll have a good chance for a very productive platoon player who can be drafted as a deep sleeper.
Part of how much Victorino plays is going to be determined by how well his peers perform. The depth chart on MLB.com views Victorino as the starting right fielder, with Hanley in left and Castillo in center. I don’t see Mookie Betts sitting the majority of games, and many believe Mookie will be leading off. Betts should eventually assume center field full time, with Castillo shifting to right, but there's a good chance that Victorino gets a good share of at bats to start the year.
Victorino had been a consistent player up to his injury plagued 2014. Except for a career high .294 AVG in 2013, the rest of his numbers were par for the course: .351 oBP, .451 SLG, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 1.22 GB/FB ratio. He did have a few areas of concern during his 2013 campaign, like his career low walk rate of 4.7% and his 14.1% strikeout rate.
Throughout his career, Victorino’s speed has made ‘The Flyin’ Hawaiian’ a special player. From 2008-2013 his stolen base totals have been 36, 25, 34, 19, 39, and 21. His back and hamstring injuries, along with now being 34 years old, will likely affect his speed on the bases. His Steamer projection calls for only 11 swiped bags for Victorino, which would be a career low.
In Summary
Victorino was left out of RotoBaller's OF Rankings, primarily because his playing time concerns are real. He's the fifth Red Sox outfield being drafted (ADP of 337), behind Ramirez (27), Betts (130.5), Castillo (132.5) and Craig (307). While another trade could definitely happen, until it does Victorino is a nice option to look at when it comes to the very end of your draft if you play in a 12+ team league with 5 OFs where over 300 players are drafted. At 34, Victorino could still go back to producing at the level he had been, but he could just as easily have another season of regression and end up as the Red Sox 4th or 5th outfielder with very limited ABs.
