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In the weeks leading up to the draft, it's been no secret that Chet Holmgren would be selected inside the top three. The Thunder, along with the Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets all seemed willing to take him if given the chance.
While Holmgren's talent and size would help him produce fantasy-friendly numbers wherever he went, landing in Oklahoma City seemed like the best fit.
Thanks to the fantasy gods, that's exactly what happened. But what is Holmgren's fantasy outlook this season?
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Chet Holmgren's Fantasy Outlook
I'm calling it now: the 2022-2023 Thunder will be the league pass team of the year. After nearly two years of rebuilding, they've now compiled one of the most dynamic young trios in Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. While their present-day roster may not translate to a lot of wins early on, there is certainly a ton of fantasy value to be had. We have a pretty good understanding of what SGA and Giddey are capable of, but what about Holmgren?
Simply put, Holmgren can do it all. Standing at 7'0" with a 7'6" wingspan, he can dribble, rebound the basketball, block shots, and even knock down the three. Are you ready for his stat line as a freshman at Gonzaga? 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 3.7 blocks on 60%/39%/71% shooting splits.
While he can't be expected to reciprocate those numbers and efficiency at the pro level in year one, he will come pretty darn close. His ability to block shots and score at an efficient clip will automatically provide him a safe fantasy floor in category formats. Not to mention he'll have two highly skilled playmakers to work off of. If he can get his free throw percentage up to the 75-77% range his value will only skyrocket more!
As for rebounding, the Thunder finished the 2021-22 season with the 7th-worst rebounding rate in the league. Expect plenty of rebounding opportunities to come his way as a result.
The Bottom Line for Chet Holmgren
When thinking of what type of fantasy season to expect from Holmgren this season, one name comes to mind: Evan Mobley.
Mobley was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers in last year's draft and possesses a similar skillset to Holmgren's. He finished his inaugural season with averages of 15.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.7 blocks on 50%/25%/66% shooting splits. While there are clearly some fantasy weak spots in his game, those numbers lifted him to a top-85 finish in category formats.
Despite the fact that Holmgren is a better overall prospect than Mobley, he's also a superior shot-blocker, playmaker, and free-throw shooter. Combine that with the fact that there will be little-to-no front-court competition for minutes in Oklahoma City, and Holmgren has the makings of a surefire fantasy star in year one.
All things considered, his well-rounded game makes him more valuable in category formats. Holmgren should be viewed as a top-50 fantasy asset until further notice.
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