Three Starting Pitchers Who Will Outperform Their 2015 ADP

March 5, 2015

Max Petrie analyzes 2015 fantasy baseball rankings for undervalued starting pitchers to draft for the 2015 MLB season. Set your sights on Drew Smyly, Shelby Miller, and Jesse Hahn

Pitching Gold Mine

In football they say defense wins championships. Well in fantasy baseball, pitching wins championships. Cheap pitching, to be specific.

Each year I take joy in uncovering hidden gems come draft day, sniping the quality young names that haven’t commanded a heavy price tag yet. In this article I will share three starting pitchers who I expect to outperform their ADP in 2015. Fantasy baseball gods be willing, these players will end up on most of my rosters.

Drew Smyly (ADP: 193.2)

Smyly has been touted this offseason as a Cy Young sleeper candidate, and I have to admit I am buying into the hype. His numbers since being called up in 2012 have been strong, both as a dominant reliever in 2012 and 2013 and as a started in 2014. After being acquired by Tampa Bay as the centerpiece of the David Price deal, Smyly finished 2014 by posting a 2.20 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 63 K in the second half. If Smyly had a stronger K rate and W potential he would be universally ranked a top 30 pitcher going into 2015. His overall 2014 numbers don't look that impressive and he only registered 153 IP in 2014 which should keep his draft price down. I anticipate Smyly reaching the top 30 SP in a breakout campaign.

He sits around SP 50 in draft rooms which is great news for wise fantasy managers. I would recommend snagging him over the likes of Matt Shoemaker, Collin McHugh, and Zack Wheeler.

Shelby Miller (ADP: 248.2)

Miller splashed onto the scene with a solid 2013 campaign (3.06 ERA/1.21 WHIP/169 K) but was unable to replicate his success in 2014, posting a 3.74 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 127 K. He struggled going deep into games, averaging less than 6 IP/start which limited his W potential. Miller had trouble locating his pitches which led to getting behind in counts and walking batters. His curveball and change up also suffered which led to a mediocre strike out rate.

That’s the bad news. The good news is Miller killed it to end the season, posting a 1.48 ERA with 26/5 K/BB in September, which were his best numbers of any month. He began to incorporate a two-seam fastball to his repertoire and it was his most effective pitch, limiting opponents to a wRC+ of 73. Considering his low ADP, I am willing to gamble his September is a sign of things to come. He is still only 24 years old with room to mature and now he gets to face the NL East lineups, which aside from Washington are not putting any fear into opposing pitchers. While I don’t think he’ll make the jump into the top 30 SP mainly due to his limited W potential in Atlanta, I think he can make an excellent back end option for your fantasy rotation.

Jesse Hahn (ADP: 248.6)

Hahn, traded to Oakland in the Derek Norris deal, splashed onto the scene in mid-2014 for the Padres delivering solid rookie year numbers (12 starts, 7 W/3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP). Hahn has six pitches in his arsenal which includes a fastball that reaches mid 90s along with a power curveball and a plus changeup. Hahn got in trouble in 2014 when going to his 2-seamer (Opp Avg .279 in 2014), but with the guidance of A’s pitching coach Curt Young I anticipate Hahn refining the 2-seamer or simply relying more on his 3 main pitches. Hitters flailed at Hahn’s changeup to the tune of a .048/.091/.048 line which is just filthy.

As a groundball pitcher, Hahn’s transition from Petco to O.Co Coliseum should not affect his advanced statistics. Having to replace the pitcher with a DH caused me to inflate his projections for 2015, but Hahn should have a solid year and can be a strong contributor to your fantasy rotation. I would rather wait on Hahn than select Collin McHugh, Francisco Liriano, T.J. House, Kyle Lohse, A.J Burnett, or Yovani Gallardo, all of whom are ranked ahead of Hahn. Hahn’s ceiling is a Top-35 pitcher, which is a straight steal in the later rounds.