X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Teoscar Hernandez to Mariners - Fantasy Baseball Impact

teoscar hernandez fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Another full year removed from the economic catastrophe of 2022, and with no lockout problems to deal with - the 2023 MLB offseason is going to be an exciting one. We have massive names on free agency and plenty of teams prepared to do some wheelin' and dealin'.

Things got started last week as the Mariners made a trade to acquire Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. It was an unexpected trade, but one that makes some sense for Toronto if they did not plan on giving Hernandez a long-term deal after the 2023 season when he is eligible to become a free agent.

Hernandez is one of the better fantasy contributors in the league, and the Mariners will be putting a solid supporting cast around him. Let's have a look at Hernandez and what we should expect from him in 2023.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Late Bloomer Turned Fantasy Baseball Stud

Hernandez was an exciting prospect coming up in the Houston and Toronto systems but fell pretty short of expectations his first few years in the Majors.

Year PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB
2016 112 .230 .304 .420 4 0
2017 95 .261 .305 .602 8 0
2018 523 .239 .302 .468 22 5
2019 464 .230 .306 .472 26 6
2020 207 .289 .340 .579 16 6
2021 595 .296 .346 .524 32 12
2022 535 .267 .316 .491 25 6

It took until 2018 for Teoscar to get a serious amount of runs at the highest level, and that was his age-25 season. It took until 2020 for him to really put up useful numbers at the plate, and it took until 2021 before anybody believed he had arrived since that 2020 season was so wonky.

If we look back at the last three seasons, Teoscar's 73 homers are the 15th-most in baseball. The .283 batting average he has put up along with those homers is a really impressive mark to boot, well above the league average. As a general rule, we typically get a batting average around the .240-.260 range from power hitters - but Teoscar has shown that ability to excel in both of these categories for a large sample now.

 

2023 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

We know Hernandez can hit the long ball and hit for a plus batting average. The 28.5% K% last year is reason to believe that his batting average does a wide range - a .250 season would not be surprising if that maintains. However, his quality of contact is great (15% barrel rate, .470 xwOBA on Contact):

Given those marks, it is fair to expect a high BABIP from him moving forward - which should make us feel better about that high strikeout rate.

The steals have been moderate (career high of just 12), but he is quick (28.6 max sprint speed in 2022, which is significantly higher than the league average). With the rule changes coming in 2023, we should be seeing more steals, and I think the Teoscar-type player will benefit the most (quick players that just haven't shown a ton of interest in stealing in the past).

For what it's worth, the Mariners attempted more steals than the Blue Jays last year. That probably just has to do with personnel, but it's not unreasonable to think it's an indicator of management willingness as well - but let's not get hung up on that. I think Hernandez is a double-digit steal guy next year with an upside for 20 or more.

Taking a look at his new team:

Projected Mariners Lineup (Roster Resource)

# Player
1 Julio Rodriguez
2 Ty France
3 Eugenio Suarez
4 Cal Raleigh
5 Teoscar Hernandez
6 Jesse Winker
7 Jarred Kelenic
8 Dylan Moore
9 J.P. Crawford

The lineup falls short of the game's best, but at this point, you would have to say that it's an above-average unit, and there is a real chance they go out and add another player or two in free agency. The Mariners appear to be in "win now" mode, so it won't be surprising to see more upgrades. Even if that doesn't happen, it's not a big downgrade from the Blue Jays lineup that Teoscar put up all that production in the heart of. He could find his way into the #2 or #3 hole here, in fact - that would be my guess, and that spot should breed more than enough opportunity for Teoscar to have a very strong year in runs and RBI.

 

Conclusion

Injuries and random things are always possible, of course, but for now, I can say this about Hernandez's floor and ceiling for 2023 (assuming full health):

Floor
.240/.310/.450, 20 HR, 5 SB, 65 R, 80 RBI

Ceiling
.280/.330/.520, 35 HR, 15 SB, 80 R, 110 RBI

Teoscar has proven to be a top-20 outfielder in recent years, and I think we have enough data on him now to call him a "safe" option. He will be 30 this year, which isn't a ripe young age anymore - but it's far away from the time we'd be worried about him being too old. Add to that an exciting offense around him and the CONTRACT YEAR ALERT, and we have a pretty intriguing addition to any fantasy team, and the price is more than reasonable as he is outside of the top-50 in early drafts.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Offseason Moves




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Josh Hart56 mins ago

Will Play Versus Atlanta
Jusuf Nurkic1 hour ago

Available Against Hawks Monday
Trae Young1 hour ago

Ruled Out Versus Portland
Miguel Vargas2 hours ago

Has A Chance To Start At Second Base
Bo Horvat2 hours ago

Islanders Acquire Bo Horvat
Grayson Rodriguez2 hours ago

Expected To Be In Opening Day Rotation
Alex Kirilloff2 hours ago

Hoping For Normal Spring Training
Andrew Wiggins3 hours ago

Returns To Starting Five
Rui Hachimura3 hours ago

To Start On Monday
Daniel Gafford4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Luka Doncic4 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
T.J. Warren4 hours ago

To Miss Monday's Game
Ben Simmons4 hours ago

To Miss Monday's Contest
Hamidou Diallo4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Joel Embiid4 hours ago

Cleared For Monday's Game
Brock Purdy4 hours ago

Will Have Surgery On Elbow
Brock Purdy5 hours ago

Out Six Months With UCL Tear
Cam Talbot5 hours ago

Might Not Be Ready After The All-Star Game
Tage Thompson5 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Logan Stanley5 hours ago

Scratched On Monday
Connor Hellebuyck5 hours ago

Looks To Continue Success Over St. Louis
Robert Thomas5 hours ago

Remains Out On Monday
Jordan Binnington6 hours ago

Tries To Get Back On Track Monday
Jalen Green7 hours ago

Misses Monday's Practice
Alperen Sengun7 hours ago

Able To Practice On Monday
Kevin Love7 hours ago

Practices On Monday
Matt Barnes8 hours ago

Marlins Acquire Matt Barnes From Red Sox
Zack Greinke8 hours ago

Royals Re-Sign Zack Greinke
Romeo Langford8 hours ago

To Miss Third Straight Game
Daniel Gafford8 hours ago

Added To Injury Report
Omer Yurtseven8 hours ago

Hopeful To Return After All-Star Break
Darren O'Day8 hours ago

Announces Retirement
Kyle Pitts10 hours ago

' Rehab "On Schedule"
Taylor Hall13 hours ago

Pots Lone Bruins Goal Sunday
Frederik Andersen13 hours ago

Beats Boston With 24 Saves
Brent Burns14 hours ago

Extends Point Streak In 1,300th Game
Nicklas Backstrom14 hours ago

Grabs First Goal Of The Season
Morgan Rielly14 hours ago

Finally Gets His First Goal
John Tavares14 hours ago

Celebrates 1,000th Game With Two Assists
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Enjoys His Fifth 50-Point Outing
Cedi Osman14 hours ago

Catches Fire Against Clippers
Jaren Jackson15 hours ago

Jr. Posts 28 Points, Five Blocks Sunday
Ja Morant15 hours ago

Stays In Triple-Double Form
Tyler Boyd23 hours ago

Has Two Catches On Sunday, Exits Due To Injury
Travis Jankowski1 day ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Rangers
Josh Harrison1 day ago

Signs With the Phillies
Gleyber Torres1 day ago

Avoids Arbitration
New York Yankees1 day ago

New York Yankees Will Have Shortstop Battle
DJ LeMahieu1 day ago

Ready For 2023
Kadarius Toney1 day ago

Questionable To Return To AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs1 day ago

L'Jarius Sneed Being Evaluated For A Head Injury
Mecole Hardman1 day ago

Cleared For AFC Championship
Josh Johnson1 day ago

Won't Return To The NFC Championship
Travis Kelce1 day ago

Will Suit Up For AFC Championship
Josh Johnson1 day ago

Exits Sunday's Game Versus Philly
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Returns To NFC Championship Game
Darcy Kuemper1 day ago

Takes On Toronto Sunday
Matt Murray1 day ago

Out With An Ankle Injury
T.J. Brodie1 day ago

On Track To Return Sunday
Josh Johnson1 day ago

Enters With Brock Purdy Questionable To Return
Jaccob Slavin1 day ago

Remains Out Sunday
Trent Frederic1 day ago

Questionable For Sunday
Justin Herbert1 day ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Travis Kelce1 day ago

Experiencing Tightness, Will Be Game-Time Decision
Nico Sturm1 day ago

Hurt On Big Hit
Dylan DeMelo1 day ago

Dealing With A Lower-Body Injury
Kenta Maeda1 day ago

Not Expected To Have Restrictions This Spring
Elijah Mitchell1 day ago

Ruled Out For NFC Championship
Aaron Rodgers1 day ago

Packers Prefer To Trade Aaron Rodgers?
Tom Brady1 day ago

Dolphins Not Expected To Pursue Tom Brady
Kyler Murray1 day ago

Not Expected To Be Ready For 2023 Season
Jonathan Taylor1 day ago

Has Successful Ankle Surgery
Travis Kelce1 day ago

Expected To Play In AFC Championship
Evgeni Malkin2 days ago

Enjoys Another Three-Point Outing
Brock Burke2 days ago

Could Be In The Closing Mix
Hirokazu Sawamura2 days ago

Returns To Japan
Nick Senzel2 days ago

Expected To Be Starting Center Fielder
Alex Colomé2 days ago

Nationals Sign Alexander Colome To Minor-League Deal
Yandy Díaz2 days ago

Yandy Diaz Closing In On Extension With Rays
Tyler Stephenson3 days ago

Reds Planning On Full Season For Tyler Stephenson
Danny Duffy3 days ago

Rangers Sign Clint Frazier, Danny Duffy To Minor-League Deals
Jesús Aguilar3 days ago

Jesus Aguilar To Split Time At First Base, DH
Paul Blackburn3 days ago

James Kaprielian, Paul Blackburn Expected To Be Ready
Tua Tagovailoa3 days ago

Still In Concussion Protocol
Emiliano Grillo5 days ago

Not An Option At Farmers
Will Zalatoris5 days ago

Loves Playing At Torrey Pines
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

May Struggle At Torrey Pines
Keegan Bradley5 days ago

A Decent Play At Farmers
Hideki Matsuyama5 days ago

Another Risky Play At Torrey Pines

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP