X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Sophomore Slump: Second-Year Players That Will Decline

Second-year NFL players can continue to rise, or they can fall hard. Gage Bridgford identifies players with a high draft price that could be ADP busts or avoids on draft day.

The NFL had a number of breakout rookies last season. At each of the major positions on offense, you had guys that were performing as some of the better players in the league. While some, such as New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, will be able to continue that production, there are others which are likely going to take a step back.

Those are the guys that we're here to talk about today. We want to look at who to avoid when you're drafting, and who you need to look at instead in that same range. Sophomores can have such a huge range of outcomes due to their way of play. Some burst ont0 the scene as rookies because the NFL isn't fully prepared to counter them, but then they stumble when the defenses are fully prepared.

These sophomores could still have good years, but it's likely that they're going to take a step back after their performances from last year set the bar sky-high.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills

Last season, Josh Allen's fantasy value was tied entirely to his ability to run the ball. Don't get me wrong, he was bordering on QB1 territory at times as a result. However, NFL defenses are going to key in on that, and the Bills have yet to really add any pass catchers that strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. In addition to that, running back LeSean McCoy, if he remains on the team, has gotten another year older with even more miles on those tires.

Last season, Allen threw just 10 touchdowns but 12 interceptions. He also had eight fumbles on the year while adding eight rushing touchdowns on 89 carries. That's an average of roughly one touchdown per 11 rushing attempts. While he likely continues to be an active runner this year, the odds of him continuing to put up that level of efficiency is just simply unlikely. Allen is a solid backup option, but I would prefer Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford who has been more consistent in his career, and I can get him a round and a half later with an ADP of 195.6 vs the 179 of Allen.

 

Nick Chubb - RB, Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb probably should have been starting all year for the Browns last season. Unfortunately, he wasn't, so he fell just short of the 1,000-yard mark. In his sophomore campaign, he has the opportunity to hit that mark, but there are going to be a few obstacles in the way that slow him down and limit his value. First is the fact that his quarterback Baker Mayfield is one of the brightest rising stars in this game and will be throwing a lot. Second is the pass catchers that Mayfield will be throwing to. Wide receivers Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashard Higgins, and Antonio Callaway are a very talented bunch, and tight end David Njoku is no slouch either.

In addition to that group, the Browns brought in running back Kareem Hunt, who is suspended for 10 games, but will likely be a solid part of the game plan when he returns. In 16 games last year, Chubb caught just 20 passes, and Hunt has proven to be the superior back in that area thus far in his career. Chubb will likely put up solid numbers, but he'll be playing in an offense that sees him more as a complementary piece than as the engine for the entire thing. With an ADP at the end of the second round, you can get guys that will be major pieces for their offense, such as Leonard Fournette of the Jacksonville Jaguars or Kerryon Johnson of the Detroit Lions slightly later.

 

Calvin Ridley - WR, Atlanta Falcons

Calvin Ridley should be another sophomore in line for a solid year. He'll likely be the number two wide receiver in an offense that has the potential to be in the top-five, and at worst it will likely be in the top-10. However, there are a lot of mouths to feed in this group. All-Pro wideout Julio Jones headlines the group, and the ever-consistent Mohamed Sanu follows him up. At running back, you have the talented Devonta Freeman along with a couple of solid backs behind him. You also have Austin Hooper that can command a good share of targets.

Last season a lot of Ridley's output was tied to two performances. In two games against the New Orleans Saints, he had 15 catches for 239 yards and four touchdowns. A quarter of his production came from those two games. His production was often volatile and tied finding the endzone. If he scored, it was a good game. If he didn't, he likely was a bust for you. Right now, he is ranked as the 27th wide receiver heading into the year. That puts him above more consistent performers like the aforementioned Landry and Philadelphia Eagles wideout Alshon Jeffery. Ridley becomes a value at some point, but right now he is being overdrafted compared to what should be realistically expected of him this year.

More ADP Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF