Week 5 Red Zone Alert - Risers and Fallers

October 9, 2021

Gladys L Tyler reviews the top red-zone risers and fallers heading into Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season at QB, RB, and WR to help fantasy football managers find an edge in their weekly lineups.

It is time to start taking note of the stats. They say numbers don't lie, but that can be deceitful. For instance, a team could have a 100% red-zone scoring percentage, but that is because they have only had two or three red-zone attempts.

We want our risers to be the teams and players who consistently go into the red zone and are having some success. As a reminder, the red zone is the area between the 20-yard line and the goal line.

And here we go with risers and fallers for Week 5.

Running Backs

FALLERS WITH POTENTIAL

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has 19 rushing attempts in the red zone. He has zero touchdowns from those attempts.

This week, the Colts play the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens rank 12^th in Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD Only), allowing opponents to score 53.33% of their attempts. Before optimism sets in too quickly, remember that the Ravens rank seventh against rushing yards allowed per game (85.8) and 25^th against passing yards allowed per game (273).

They have allowed five rushing touchdowns this season, including two from Josh Jacobs.

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has 12 red zone rushing attempts and zero touchdowns. Kamara is averaging 33.3 run plays per game (per playerprofiler.com). He has been targeted 14 times in four games, and in those 14 targets, he has four red-zone targets. So in Kamara's 16 total red-zone targets, he has two touchdowns.

This week, the Saints play the Washington Football Team. The WFT allows opponents to score in the red zone 52.63% of the time (T-9^th). Their rushing defense is only allowing an average of 0.8 touchdowns per game; however, in the passing game, they are allowing an average of 2.5 touchdowns per game.

Seeing as Kamara's red-zone scoring has come from the passing game, perhaps this week is his chance to rise.

RISERS

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has 10 red zone attempts with four resulting in touchdowns. Dallas' running back by committee approach has Elliott on the field for 74.7% of the offensive snaps as he averages 30.3 run plays per game.

Elliott also has five red-zone targets resulting in one touchdown. He is scoring in the red zone 33.33% of the time.

The Cowboys face the New York Giants this week. The Giants allow teams to score in the red zone 71.43% of the time (22^nd ranked). They allow an average of one rushing touchdown and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. Elliott should continue to rise.

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner is only on the field for 42.2% of the offensive snaps. Yet, he has 14 red zone attempts resulting in four touchdowns. Conner is scoring in the red zone 28.57% of the time.

Surprisingly or not, the Cardinals are running the ball on 46.62% of their offensive plays (sixth-most in the league).

This week, the Cardinals play the San Francisco 49ers, who are allowing opponents to score in the red zone 78.57% of the time (26^th ranked). They are giving up an average of 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game.

Red Zone Passers

POTENTIAL FALLERS

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has 20 red zone attempts with nine red zone touchdowns.

This week, Mahomes meets the Buffalo Bills defense, yielding the least touchdowns in the red zone (33.33% tied for first).  The Bills are giving up an average of 0.8 passing touchdowns per game.

FALLING RAPIDLY

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was already falling with 16 red zone attempts, 11 completions, and only two touchdowns.

This week, the Steelers play the Denver Broncos, who are also tied for giving up the least amount of red zone touchdowns (33.33%) and averaging 0.8 passing touchdowns per game.

POTENTIAL RISERS

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields has six red zone attempts, three completions, and zero touchdowns. His red-zone stock just might rise this weekend as the Bears play the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Raiders are allowing touchdowns in the red zone 88.89% of the time. They are allowing an average of 1.2 passing touchdowns and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

While Fields' current red zone stats are about his passing, his dual-threat ability could see him rise on both fronts against the Raiders this weekend.

RISERS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has 33 red zone passing attempts, 19 completions, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

This week's opponent, the Miami Dolphins, gives up 1.8 average passing touchdowns per game while allowing opponents to score 62.50% of the time in the red zone.

PlayPicks prop bets for Brady include under 2.5 passing touchdowns -150; over 2.5 passing touchdowns +115; score 2+ touchdowns +4500.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has 15 red zone attempts, 12 completions, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

This week, the Vikings play the Detroit Lions.  The Lions are allowing teams to score in the red zone 83.33% of the time (29^th ranked) while yielding an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game.

Receiving Stats

We all know that receivers are dependent upon their quarterbacks and quarterback efficiency.

RISERS and FALLERS

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