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Today's PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the 2023 Memorial Tournament (Round 1) by Ian McNeill. Use his golf over/under props recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.
Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for The Memorial Tournament (Round 1). The PGA Tour season is in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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This week, we're at Muirfield Village Golf Club for the 2023 Memorial Tournament! The prestige of winning at Jack's Place always brings some of golf's brightest stars out to Ohio each summer, but its newfound status as an "Elevated" Event has ramped up the stakes even more. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, June 1.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Shane Lowry MORE than 9.5 Fairways Hit
If there is one reprieve given to players by this literal "Bear" of a golf course, it is in the fairways at Muirfield Village. At an average width of 33 yards (15th widest out of 46 courses) and a historical driving accuracy of nearly 70%, Jack has been quite forgiving to players off the tee at his cardinal work.
I, therefore, have no issue trusting Shane Lowry to hit the over on 9.5 Fairways Thursday morning. Lowry has long been one of the more reliable drivers of the ball in the sport, and it's been no different thus far in 2023: rating out 11th in this field in Driving Accuracy for the season and 6th in Good Drive %. He's also been above field average in Fairways hit in each of his last six starts.
As such, I have no idea how or why Shane is being priced in the same range as guys like Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, or Hideki Matsuyama (all of whom rank outside the top 50 in each of those key metrics), but I'll take the discount when given. Fresh off of his best ball-striking performance in 15 months at the PGA Championship, look for the Irishman to stay hot in Dublin this week.
Hideki Matsuyama LESS than 71.5 Strokes
Back at the site of his breakout win in 2014, Hideki Matsuyama is finally showing flashes of the elite ball-striking we've become accustomed to throughout his career. Hideki gained a whopping 10.4 shots from tee-to-green at the PGA Championship two weeks ago and is currently on a run of seven consecutive events gaining at least 2.5 shots on approach.
The Japanese No. 1 also possesses one of the sickest short games on the PGA Tour, and is sneakily inside the top 35 in Fairways Gained over his last 36 rounds. To my eye, Matsuyama is checking every box I want to see in a player to have success at Muirfield Village. At 71.5 (alongside struggling names like Sahith Theegala, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tom Kim), he's one of the more undervalued commodities on the board.
Sam Burns MORE than 71.0 Strokes
Of every marquee name at the top of the betting board, Sam Burns stuck out to me as my clearest fade of the week. At a venue that rewards driving accuracy and long-iron play above all else, Burns ranks outside the top 80 in Driving Accuracy, Good Drive Percentage, SG: APP, and Proximity from 175+.
The results at Muirfield Village tell a similar story, as Burns has actually never cleared this line of 71 in any of his seven career rounds here, while breaking par in just three of those seven instances. Burns' advocates might point to a sixth-place finish in his last start at Colonial last week, but Sam achieved that finish by gaining over six shots from around the greens.
Muirfield Village presents a much stiffer short-game test than we saw in Fort Worth last week, so don't expect Burns to repeat the same trick around these confines. If Sam isn't able to turn the ball-striking around (65th in that metric over the last two months), I think he's in for another long week around Jack's Place. 71 is a ludicrous line when much better course fits like Matsuyama, Fowler, Lowry, and Corey Conners sit half a shot to a full stroke above him on the closing line.
Other Recommendations
- Scottie Scheffler MORE than 12.5 Greens in Regulation
- Rickie Fowler MORE than 3.5 Birdies or Better
- Tyrrell Hatton MORE than Thomas Detry - Birdies or Better Matchup
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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