Zach Ertz 2019 Outlook - Regression Is Coming
6 years agoPhiladelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz is set for regression in 2019. This is common sense. When you break the NFL record for receptions at 116 and targets at 156 for the tight end position, there is nowhere else to go but down. This is not to say he is going to be bad, though. Ertz and Travis Kelce are still the top two tight ends in fantasy football and they will remain so this season.
Ertz has never before had 100 receptions and it was a matter of massive injuries to the Eagles' offensive players which allowed this to happen in 2018. With Mike Wallace and Jay Ajayi missing most of the season on injured reserve along with Darren Sproles missing significant time with a hamstring, Nick Foles was forced to use his most reliable weapon. Zach Ertz was that weapon. With Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard manning the backfield and the return of DeSean Jackson back to the receivers group, the opportunities will just not be as plentiful for the tight end. Add to this the emergence last season of rookie Dallas Goedert as a second tight end option and Ertz is due for regression in some form.
Will the 116 receptions be there this season? No. But you can still expect 85 to 90 in this potent offense. With a current draft price of the early third round behind only Travis Kelce at TE, you will have to decide early if you want to get him as a true positional advantage or if you are more comfortable getting your second starting running back or wide receiver. If you decide on the former, he will serve you well and could win you some weeks where most other tight ends wouldn’t. No one can blame you but know you are passing up at worst a top-three tight end.