RADIO
I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three fallers at tight end.
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Tight Ends - ADP Fallers
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccanneers
It was all smiles when Rob Gronkowski said he'll return for another run at the championship this season... until he said he wouldn't – and stayed firm on that decision (we'll see how that ends, though). Of course, fantasy GMs quickly moved on from Gronk and turned their attention to the next-in-line TE in the Bucs depth chart: Cameron Brate. Reason enough for Brate's ADP to go up to a summer-high of around 170th overall.
The reaction was normal, all things considered. The reaction, looking at the larger picture, doesn't make that much sense if you really think about it. For one, Brate is nearly an even blocking/receiving tight end: he got targeted 57 times in 280 routes last year, and he ran a route in 62% of the snaps he played.
Then there is the fact that Tampa, of course, had to bring someone to make up for Gronk's retirement. Enter über-veteran Kyle Rudolph, signed in late July to back Brate up while rookie Cade Otton develops on the wings. Rudolph is not going to straight usurp the TE1 role from Brate, but there is no reason that ends up being the case. I have always rated Rudolph highly and even though he's not his old self anymore he can still produce (39/26/257/1 receiving line with the Giants last season).
Brate is coming off a mediocre year in which he caught a ridiculously low 52.6% of the targets Tom Brady threw him and finished with fewer yards than Rudolph even though he got 18 more targets through the season. His only saving number was the four touchdowns he scored – his highest tally since he scored six in 2018. The Bucs are hyper-loaded at WR (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage) so it's not that Brady will need to rely on a no-buddy (sorry about that bad joke) to help Tampa score points. Right falling trend. Right move by all fantasy GMs out there fading Brate.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
Let me tell you a thing about summer reports coming off training camps: they aren't worth that much. Now, when it comes to reporters or members of the media – whatever their role is – giving their two cents about this or that... if you actually buy into any of that, you're going to be in for a looooong season, folks.
That's the case with some reporters out there stating that Everett will have it hard to get targets in an offense that features Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. SHOCKER! You don't need to believe that. That's because if you play fantasy football, well, you're probably smart enough to reasonably think and have a good idea of that being the case without a rich reporter telling you about it, don't you?
Of course, Allen, Williams, and even Ekeler will get a ton of targets and action in the Chargers' offensive playbook. Of course, Everett will be a secondary/tertiary option. Of course, that's why the ADP is falling and that's why it's perfectly reasonable to see that happening. The ADP keeps going down for Everett and is already approaching (if not past it when you read this) the 150th overall pick in 12-team drafts.
Most concerning – if you believe that type of thing – are the reports saying former XFL great Donald Parham (no, seriously) is outperforming Everett in the Chargers training camp. Whatever. Everett is coming off his absolute best season as a pro, scored 117.8 PPR points over 15 games last year, averaged 7.9, and finished as a mid-level TE2 with Seattle with a 48/478/4 receiving line catching 76.2% of his targets. Can't ask for more, and that was already a diminished role like the one he'll get this season.
He's a steal of an asset available for peanuts if you punt on the TE position for the first 12 or 13 rounds of your draft. Don't get too smart if you don't want to miss on him though because there are very intelligent GMs in draft rooms out there trying to steal the goodies from you. Projection of TE10 by PFF. Can't get any better for a TE18 (currently) ADP.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
As much as people are forgetting about Everett come draft day (read above) they're hella overvaluing and overpaying for an average tight end stuck in a mediocre offense led by a scrambling quarterback of all types... Kmet, just in case, posted a bad 1.38 FP/Opp as a rookie and an even worse 1.29 in his sophomore year in 2021. Of course, he improved his overall results because he doubled the number of targets he saw, going from 44 targets in 2020 to 94 in 2021 and finishing last season as the TE20 in PPR leagues.
Kmet is getting drafted as the TE12 this season... while projecting to an already generous TE15 by PFF, something I'm still hesitant will happen. The overpaying is glaring anyway, and you'd be better off staying away from Kmet at his current 100th+ ADP and even still if it keeps tanking more and more as the ongoing trend shows.
Only David Montgomery projects to more than 191 PPR points over the full 2022 season among Chicago's skill-position players, with Darnell Mooney second in line and Kmet not even topping 140 total FP. Mooney and Montgomery project for a combined 156 targets to Kmet's 84.
Kmet's target share of 15.6% is projected to be the eight-highest among players at the position, which means that 1) it can't/won't get much higher and 2) Kmet is projected to not take advantage of that benefit at all. He's not worth the high price, at least in my eyes.
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