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Happy Masters Day to all who celebrate! I will definitely be tuning in during the day before turning my attention to the NBA at night. Tonight, we have a small five-game slate.
Last night, I went 0-3 on my picks. I’m disappointed but also understand nights like these happen when you’re doing picks daily. I have two selections I feel good about tonight and am leaving Wednesday night in the past.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday, April 11. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Golden State Warriors (-14.5) at Portland Trail Blazers (222.5 total)
One pick I forgot to make on Tuesday night was the Blazers' first-quarter spread. They only lost the first quarter by one to the Pelicans and easily covered. Portland is 6-4 ATS and 4-1 in its last five in the opening quarter. Its one loss came when Jaylen Brown hit a stepback three with 0.7 seconds to give the Celtics a six-point lead. Golden State has also been great ATS in the opening 12, but I'm going to trust Portland here with the high spread.
I'll start on defense. The Blazers have held opponents to 25.6 points. Opposing teams are shooting 25 percent from three, and Portland is also in the top 15 in attempts allowed. They are limiting teams to the fourth-fewest attempts in the first quarter, and those teams are shooting about average on those attempts. Portland is 11th in defensive rating and 20th in offensive rating. The offensive rating obviously isn't great, but I was happy to see they are still a 4.7 net positive.
Portland and Golden State are both giving up the same amount of PITP in this sample, but Portland has been better at stopping fast-break opportunities. Fast breaks are definitely a strength of the Warriors early in games.
The Blazers offense isn't great, but what's been impressive is that they've found ways to cover. This team is still averaging over 27 points per game in its last five. It is only hitting 42.4 percent of its FGAs and 32.6 percent of its threes. If Portland can shoot a little better, that number would be a lot closer to 30. There are only eight teams that have averaged 30 or more in their last five opening quarters.
This team has been fighting and is still getting disrespected by line makers in the first quarter. It's a lot of points to play with and I'll take my chances with a Blazers team I've come to like.
ICYMI: all 15 of Scoot’s assists last night 🫣 pic.twitter.com/S5edX3nBsd
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) April 10, 2024
The Pick: Blazers First Quarter +4.5 (-120 Sports Illustrated Sportsbook)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
New Orleans Pelicans (+1) at Sacramento Kings (218.5 total)
This game feels like a total toss-up, so I'm going to avoid taking a winner and target the first half. I'm rolling with the Kings at home in the first half. Sacramento is 25-13 in the opening two quarters at the Golden 1 Center this season. In its last 10 games, it is 8-2.
I was impressed with the Kings' defensive numbers after taking a look at recent play. In Sacramento's last 10 games, they have held opponents to 50.7 points. That is second only to the Milwaukee Bucks. From deep, teams are only hitting 33.9 percent of their threes and they are attempting less than 17 per game. New Orleans is 13th in first half threes in its last 10 games.
The Pelicans' first-half numbers have been down in April. This month, they are averaging 55.6 points while hitting 47.7 percent of their FGAs. Last month, New Orleans averaged 58.6 points on 51.7 percent field-goal shooting. In five April games, Willie Green's squad is ninth in first-half offensive rating but it is 25th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Sacramento is second in offensive rating and first in defensive rating.
Domantas Sabonis and Co. are averaging 59 points per game. They've been particularly sharp from three, hitting 41.5 percent of their attempts. New Orleans is allowing the 25th-most three-point attempts and opposing teams are shooting 41.6 percent on them. That is right in line with how the Kings have been playing on offense and I think they can have success in this matchup.
Keon had himself a CAREER-NIGHT in OKC last night 😤 ⤵️:
👑 26 PTS
👑 8/15 3-PT FG
👑 52% FG
👑 2 STL
👑 2 BLK pic.twitter.com/KamVvBlQ1w— Sacramento Kings (@SacramentoKings) April 10, 2024
The Pick: Kings First Half ML (-120 ESPN BET)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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