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Nick's picks, bets, and analysis for December 5 College Basketball. Identifying high-profile matchups and various spots during Super Tuesday in college basketball.
As the college football season winds to an end, basketball picks up in full force. Big-time non-conference games continue this week, and it feels like there's a lot at stake this early in the season.
This early-December Super Tuesday brings us a few massive matchups and spots I'm interested in betting on.
Without further ado, let's get into it.
Florida Atlantic (-2.5) vs Illinois @ Madison Square Garden, NY (6:30 pm)
After a home loss to Bryant, while shooting 5-30 from deep, FAU rattled off five straight wins against Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Liberty, and Charleston, all top-65 teams in KenPom aside from Charleston. They can win inside, outside, with offense, or crippling defense. Even without starting wing Nick Boyd, this team has tons of depth at the guard position and hammers teams in waves.
Illinois is also playing good basketball, with their only loss coming to number eight-ranked Marquette. While their strength of schedule is worse, they most recently dominated a decent Rutgers team on the road. Star guard Terrance Shannon Jr. has led the charge averaging 20 points and four rebounds this season.
That being said, I like FAU to cover on a neutral court here. Guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin handle the rock as well as anyone. They've also shot the ball well on neutral courts this season, an area the Fighting Illini are likely to struggle tonight.
Overall, these teams do match up well. They rebound the basketball at a high clip and are exceptional at getting to the basket while also defending penetration. Furthermore, I think the Owls' talent and depth at guard will force Shannon to work for his buckets all night while also allowing them to control the pace and offense when Illinois wants to push the tempo.
Akron (-1.5) vs Bradley @ James A. Rhodes Arena, OH (7:00 pm)
Here's a spot I like backing the Zips. Coming home after a three-game losing streak to several solid fellow mid-major programs, they face a Bradley team in a similar position.
In recent years, Bradley has had a suffocating defense, finishing top 70 in AdjD each of the past two seasons, according to KenPom. The Braves currently have the number 85-ranked defense by that same metric but are 58th in Mr. Pomeroy's luck rankings. They aren't exceptional in any major category but have scored at a relatively efficient rate thus far.
Akron's biggest struggles through this losing streak have been a propensity to turn the ball over and an inability to make outside shots. Fortunately for them, this Bradley team doesn't rely on forcing turnovers.
In the end, I think this is a good buy-low point for the Zips as they play their first home game in nearly a month and the JAR should be rocking. The matchup between Akron's Enrique Freeman and Bradley's Malevy Leons is a special one, where ultimately I see the Zips' rebounding edge and shooting regression as the deciding factor. Either way, it should be fun.
Other Matchups To Watch
- San Diego State (-2.5) at Grand Canyon: This is my favorite game of the night, and probably the week. Grand Canyon Arena is going to be an absolute bonanza as last year's runner-up comes to town. The Lopes are making their name as one of the best mid-majors in the country while SDSU has continued to hammer teams on the defensive end. Tyon Grand-Foster is one of the best guards around and should be on full display tonight. No bet for me, as GCU is still without star guard Javon Blackshear Jr., but this game will be on TV tonight.
- Connecticut (-5.5) vs North Carolina @ Madison Square Garden: High-powered matchup between some high-powered schools. Donovan Clingan vs Armando Bacot is worth the price of admission alone, with Tristen Newton and RJ Davis also playing at an extremely high level. Future potential lottery pick Stephon Castle is active tonight for the Huskies, albeit with a minutes restriction. No pregame bet for me here, but I'm expecting a close game and looking to jump on either side live depending on how the first few minutes go.
- Wisconsin at Michigan State (-5.5): Again, no bet for me. Just a big (10) matchup in a game Sparty has to win to feel any chance at a Big 10 title. The Badgers are coming off a great win over Marquette, while MSU has only Butler as their marquee win this season. I projected Michigan State as the Big 10 team with the most post-season potential a few weeks ago, and need them to show some life in their first conference bout.
My bets tonight:
- Syracuse -3 (-110 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .9u
- Akron ML (-122 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .82u
- Florida Atlantic -2 (-112 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .89u
YTD 19-14 +3.1u
Follow all my picks on Twitter @DrRoddy_ and hit me up with questions or teams you’d like to see me write about. GL if you tail. Let’s go!
