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RotoBaller writer Kyle Richardson makes his bold fantasy football predictions for the 2018 NFL season.
I love bold predictions. I have always had two schools of thought on this. Bold predictions could happen. A long-shot, sure, but still possible. Hot takes are even more unlikely to happen. While you are reading this article, keep in mind these predictions probably won’t come true, but there is an outside chance they could by the end of the year.
So here you go, four bold predictions for the 2018 season. If a couple of things fall the right way, then I look great. If they don’t happen, then oh well, they were just bold predictions, right? Fantasy football is all one, big bold prediction anyway. Let’s get a little crazy with these.
This is just the third installment in our bold predictions series, so check back at RotoBaller.com every day for the latest and greatest in bold calls, shots in the dark and downright foolishness. There's a very real chance that none of what we claim will actually come to fruition, but we've been known to nail a few every year. Which ones seem the most plausible to you?
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Kyle Richardson's Bold Predictions
Tevin Coleman will be an RB1 in PPR leagues
This one may not be that farfetched, but I figured I would start out slow before dumping the real fire on you. All this prediction would need to come true is one injury to Devonta Freeman. Even though Freeman has played 30 games over the past two seasons, Tevin Coleman has finished as the RB22 and RB19. Some even think that Coleman is a better player than Freeman.
More than likely Coleman is off to a new team as a free agent next off-season. This situation may even be like a man that just received the highest contract of any running back this off-season. Jerick McKinnon finished with only 10 more points than Coleman last season in PPR leagues. The Falcons have continued to put Coleman on the field more each season since his rookie year, a trend that could continue in 2018 if the Falcons choose to use up Coleman before he leaves and keep Freeman as healthy as possible.
Since 2015, Freeman has seen his snap percentage drop from 67.34% to 58.13% to 53.81% last season while Coleman saw his snap percentage rise from 19.84% to 33.97% to 41.41%. If Freeman were to miss more time in 2018 or if Coleman has an extremely efficient season, RB1 could be very close. That could be a difference of four touchdowns and some extra yardage. Coleman’s career high in total touchdowns is 11, which is three more than last year.
Alvin Kamara is the RB1 in 2018
Let me just be clear on this one, Alvin Kamara will be THE RB1 in 2018. Not just an RB1. We have spent all off-season talking about the historic efficiency from Kamara in 2017 but we haven’t spent enough time talking about what his workload could look now that Mark Ingram will be missing the first four games. There is a chance that the Saints won’t just throw Ingram back into the fire and use him at the same pace as last season, so let’s add that to the potential that Kamara has a huge start to the season.
That equation could lead to Kamara seeing a bigger workload that what we anticipate for Kamara in 2018. One reason I was not high on Ingram last season was his uncanny ability to continually find himself in Sean Payton’s doghouse. Well, getting a four-game suspension for a banned substance is something Payton won’t view too kindly on. Ingram will see an increase in his workload over several games, but I see a six-game window that Kamara could show the Saints this is his job and he should be on the field more often. All that leads to Kamara scoring a huge season.
Tyrod Taylor is a top-five quarterback in 2018
This prediction was supposed to lead off the article, but after the scare from Tyrod Taylor this past week, I nearly removed it, only to see him re-enter the game and find out it was a dislocated pinky. I can tell you I was much more worried than I should have been. Now that we have avoided that, let’s talk about why Taylor is going to be a top-five QB this season.
Taylor was able to turn in a QB8 season in 2016 with the Buffalo Bills largely due to his dual-threat ability. Since 2015, Taylor has averaged 525 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns per season. With the weapons in Cleveland, Taylor has a great chance to improve on his passing and rushing numbers. Todd Haley is a great offensive mind but one thing he could never use in Pittsburgh is the run-pass option. With the talent at running back in Cleveland, the Browns could utilize this more in their game plan to keep opposing defense off balance. Taylor is going to have much better weapons in Cleveland and more weapons as well with a more creative game plan. The sky is the limit in 2018, as long as he can hold off Baker Mayfield.
David Johnson finishes outside the top-10 running backs
I don’t hate David Johnson by any means, but I have mentioned several times this off-season that I have concerns about Johnson returning the value of a top four overall player and I have a couple reasons as to why.
The Cardinals are looking to the future with Christian Kirk and Josh Rosen. While they will compete this year, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect them to win the division or find their way into the playoffs. David Johnson is in a contract year and if the Cardinals want to ensure he is a part of future playoff pushes, they will focus on leaving some miles off the tires this season. If the Cardinals are out of games in the fourth quarter, maybe Johnson finds his way to the bench. Maybe the Cardinals decide to give Johnson a few extra plays off this year. A lot of different things could happen this year and Johnson being a low end RB2 could be a direct result of those.
If Johnson is available in your first five picks, you are taking him and there is really no debate about it. I would do the same thing if in that position. Just be prepared if the Cardinals decide they want to protect their investment long term and they give Johnson more time to rest instead of risking it on a wasted season.
Kenny Stills will be a WR1
I leave you with the hottest of bold takes, maybe even a borderline hot take. Let's face it, this is a hot take. You may know by now how much I love Kenny Stills this season. He has never been a big producer in the past, but he has never been the WR1 on his team in the past either. With Jarvis Landry out of town, someone will need to assume that role, and it will be Stills. No, it will not be Devante Parker.
Stills had nine touchdowns with Ryan Tannehill as his QB two years ago and he had 150 targets last season. With 161 targets gone with Landry, Stills is going to see some of those come his way and he will also have the big play ability on the offense. If Stills can catch double digit touchdowns, plus add about 30 more targets, he could also go over 1,100 yards and creep up towards the top 12 overall WRs. You can keep writing Stills off as a boom or bust weekly play, but you will miss out if you do.
