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Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday, 3/5/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.
Gone are the Thursdays with only a few primetime NBA matchups! We have a stellar 9-game slate on tap tonight and no shortage of wagering opportunities! I'm leaning into the game outcome markets a bit more lately and slowly away from player props as minutes are getting tougher to project on many teams, but I'll provide a nice little mix of both today.
If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Thursday night's games.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NBA Sides and Totals
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8:00 AM ET
Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs (UNDER 228.5, -103)
Compare at FanDuel at -128
The Spurs are installed as 3.5-point favorites here at home, which matches up with my model based on their stellar recent play. Other than that hiccup against the Knicks, the Spurs have been in great form and come into this one with the best net rating of any NBA team over their last 15 contests.
The Pistons are playing well, too, and still have the best mark in the East even after getting beaten by the Cavs the other night (I was on that call, by the way!). I think the Spurs likely win this one, but my action won't be on the spread. It's this total that I think is too high.
Both teams are very good defensively, ranking first (Spurs) and fifth (Pistons) over their last 15 games. This game has all the feels of playoff basketball, where we usually see games slow down, and every possession is valued a bit more. The Spurs play a bit faster than the league average, but Detroit tends to be average or a bit slower than most in terms of pace.
Both teams have hit their unders this season more often than their overs (59% and 56%), and their first meeting a few weeks ago ended at only 217 total points. I think this total will drop during the day, so grab the under now before the value dries up.
L.A. Lakers (+5.5, -116) at Denver Nuggets
Compare at FanDuel at -112
If we are trying to avoid some of the more lopsided games tonight, then this Western Conference showdown makes for a good target. The spread is fluctuating between 4.5 and 5.5 right now, but I want as much cushion as possible for the Lakers, so I'm okay grabbing the extra point and laying a little more juice.
The Lakers come into this one having won three straight games, while the Nuggets have dropped two of their last three. Denver still isn't at full strength with Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon still out, while the Lakers are as healthy as they've been all year.
L.A. won the first matchup back in January, though Nikola Jokic didn't play for Denver in that one. I am not counting on them pulling off the road win here, but I do think this game remains competitive to the end and is a one or two-possession game in the final minutes. Luka Doncic always gets up to play Nikola Jokic, and the Lakers have covered against Denver four straight times, going back to last season.
New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5, -112) at Sacramento Kings
It feels like the low-hanging fruit, but I am not above kicking the Kings while they are down. Sacramento has been the worst team in the league ATS this season with a paltry 38% cover rate. They come into this game having dropped eight of their last 10 contests, with seven of those losses being by double digits.
The Pelicans have dropped their last two games to the Lakers and Clippers, but had won four straight before that. They beat this Sacto team by 26 points in early February, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Kings are fine with tanking to finish out the season, but New Orleans (which doesn't own its first-round pick) has shown no signs of benching key players. Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray are questionable for New Orleans, which is the only reason I can think of that this line is still this close.
Prop Bet Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET
Jamal Murray OVER 32.5 Points + Assists (-112)
Murray is the ultimate big-game player and almost always has some of his best outings in close games against good teams.
We saw that narrative play out as he had 39 points and six assists against Oklahoma City in an overtime loss last week, and it certainly helps that we saw him have success against the Lakers earlier this season when he went for 28 points and 11 assists in their first meeting.
Jokic didn't play in that game, but Murray should still have a high usage rate tonight, even with Jokic in the lineup as the Nuggets have been a bit of a two-man show offensively with a bunch of role players plugged in around them. Look for Murray to have a big game, win or lose, against the Lakers tonight.
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NBA Value Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET
Nique Clifford OVER 3.5 Assists (+101)
The Sacramento rookie wing has been one of the lone bright spots for the Kings this season. He's not a natural scorer, but he has brought some defensive toughness, rebounding, and play-making to their offense since being inserted into the starting lineup.
The Kings are basically playing without a true point guard right now, and their point-center, Domantas Sabonis, is out for the year. Clifford has been helping to initiate the offense and has four or more assists in eight of his last ten games.
With this game having a relatively close spread and a juicy 234.5 total, I expect Clifford to have plenty of assist opportunities, especially since he's been playing around 40 minutes a night over his last three games.
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