NBA Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Thursday, 2/26/26)

February 26, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday, 2/26/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.

It's been two weeks in a row now where we have seen the NBA schedule get overloaded on Thursday night, moving away from the traditional pattern of smaller slates on Thursdays - and I am here for it! Sure, the NBA has been pretty wacky lately with rampant tanking and tons of superstars sitting out, but with ten games on the docket tonight, there's plenty of opportunities to load up our menu with some strong market positions on Novig.

If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Thursday night's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NBA Sides and Totals

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5, +100) at Chicago Bulls

Compare at DraftKings at -103

The Blazers will be shorthanded tonight without one of their best players, Deni Avdija, struggling with back troubles. They also just lost another one of their top scorers, Shaedon Sharpe, for at least a month. That's one reason I'll be targeting them with player props a bit later in this article.

As far as this spread goes, however, it has a lot more to do with the sad state of the Chicago Bulls. Chicago has dropped ten games in a row, with their closest defeat being by six points to the Knicks last weekend. They're missing several rotational players tonight with Jaden Ivey, Anfernee Simons, and Jalen Smith all out, and Patrick Williams is considered doubtful.

Portland has won five of its last eight and is playing some very competitive basketball, with a 50+ point loss to Denver being the only big misstep in that stretch. I look for the Trail Blazers to cover here relatively easily. Even on the road, I have the true spread here around seven points.

Minnesota Timberwolves at L.A. Clippers (+5.5, -109)

Compare at FanDuel at -112

We go from backing a road favorite to a home underdog here with the Clippers facing the Wolves in one of the West Coast games. These teams have split the season series, but the Clippers covered this spread in their loss to Minnesota earlier this year, too.

The Clippers beat this Timberwolves team by 22 points right before the break, behind 41 points from Kawhi Leonard. And while L.A. is likely outmanned in this one, I won't underestimate the impact that Leonard can have on this game. He has a pretty solid "Robin" to his "Batman" now, as well, with Bennedict Mathurin getting hot lately off the bench.

The trends back up this play pretty strongly as the Clippers are 5-3 ATS as home underdogs, while the Timberwolves are just 8-12 ATS as road favorites. If you've watched this Minnesota team this year, they tend to let down against inferior teams, and I can see the Clippers hanging tough here or even pulling off the upset.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Jrue Holiday OVER 18.5 Points (-111)

The Bulls are giving up a ton of assists to point guards lately, but I am going to back Holiday's points here instead because I think we will see him take a much more aggressive role as a scorer on offense with Sharpe and Avdija out.

In the three games that both players have missed this season, Holiday has averaged 24.7 points, going over this prop in all three contests.

He's no longer dealing with any minute limitations, and even with Scoot Henderson healthy, I think we'll see Holiday for 30-32 minutes at least in this one, likely sharing the floor with Scoot at times.

Donovan Clingan OVER 16.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130)

The second-year center out of UCONN has had a strong season, especially over the last few months. He's been an elite rebounder this year, especially on the offensive end, but has also flashed some solid passing skills both out of the high post and low post.

Donovan Clingan over the last 4 games:

18.0 PPG
14.0 RPG
4.3 APG
2.3 BPG
1.0 SPG
61.4% FG
47.1% 3P
29.2 MPG

UNDERRATED. 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/rQYvYkoSQP

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) February 25, 2026

Without Sharpe and Avdija in the lineup this season, Clingan has averaged 22.7 rebounds and assists this season. While Holiday should pick up some more assists with Avdija out (as Deni often initiates the offense as a point forward), don't be surprised if Clingan racks up a bunch of dimes tonight, too, as the offense flows through him.

Robert Williams missed Portland's last game and is questionable. In games that Williams sits out, Clingan sees a few more minutes of floor time and has gone over this prop in six straight.

The Bulls have been bullied inside by opposing big men this season, and I think we see Clingan take advantage of the mismatch inside against an undersized Guerschon Yabusele.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NBA Value Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Marvin Bagley III OVER 14.5 Points (-111)

The Mavericks won't have their best player, Cooper Flagg, tonight. They're also likely without Daniel Gafford, who is Bagley's direct competition for minutes at the center position.

As long as Gafford, who is doubtful, sits out, we should see Bagley start, and he could go off against the Kings, who have been terrible against centers all season. Bagley has been excellent on a per-minute basis, and if he's going to play 25+ minutes tonight, I think he crushes this number!

Kyle Filipowski OVER 13.5 Points (-132)

Jusuf Nurkic is out for the year. Lauri Markannen is questionable, but it's looking like he could miss this game tonight and possibly get shut down for the season. Utah has not had its top scorer, Keyonte George, in the lineup since early February, and George is questionable to return tonight, too.

It's all lining up for Filipowski to be the focal point of the Utah offense again tonight in a sweet spot against the Pelicans. This game has a massive 240.5-point total and a fairly close 4.5-point spread, so the props in this one are pretty appealing.

It's pretty simple: when Filipowski gets minutes, he produces. He's gone for 14+ points in eight of the last ten games where he's played at least 28 minutes. The usage should be there, and the matchup is excellent.

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