NBA Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Friday, 2/20/26)

February 20, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Friday, 2/20/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.

Last night we saw 20 NBA teams return to action, and we have another nine games tonight. Multiple teams will be playing the second half of a back-to-back (Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington, Indiana, Denver, Brooklyn, Atlanta, and L.A. Clippers), and we may try to take advantage of several of those situations.

If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Friday night's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NBA Sides and Totals

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:30 AM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets (under 233.5, -108)

Compare at DraftKings at -121, FanDuel at  -110

The Cavs and Hornets both played last night, with Cleveland easily cruising past the Nets and the Hornets battling a good Houston team, but coming up short. Charlotte will be short-handed again tonight as Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabate continue to serve their suspensions for fighting, which means the Hornets will have to rely heavily on LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, and Brandon Miller to carry their offense.

The Cavs have been clicking offensively since James Harden arrived, and just got Evan Mobley back last night. However, they have been putting up a lot of points on weak competition with the Kings, Nets, and Wizards as recent foes.

I like the under here for a few reasons. These teams have already played three times this year, going under this total in two of those games. The most recent matchup went way under, finishing at 181 total points. Charlotte has been a much better defensive team this season, and the Cavs should be better going forward with Dean Wade and Mobley back in the mix.

Charlotte has gone under this number in eight of their last 10, and in nine of its 11 second halves of back-to-backs this season.

Miami Heat (-2.5. -123) at Atlanta Hawks

Compare at DraftKings at -132, FanDuel at -128

We might get our first look at the Heat with their regular starting lineup in a month tonight, as Tyler Herro is expected to return. The Heat have been pretty solid recently, even without Herro and other key rotational players. They're 8-7 over their last 15 games with a 4.4 net rating.

Meanwhile, the Hawks are 7-8 during that same stretch with a -2.8 net rating. They pulled off a nice win against the Sixers last night, but Philly was without Joel Embiid and Paul George. They'll be playing on no rest tonight, while Miami is rested and has its deep rotation ready to go.

One more fun factoid here to consider is that Miami has been great on the road this year, going 18-11 against the spread. These teams have split the season series 1-1, but I think Miami has a solid advantage tonight.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

Jarace Walker OVER 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-107)

The Pacers and Wizards will play again for the second night in a row, and Indiana will be without their best player, Pascal Siakam, again as he's out for personal reasons. Walker had a massive line last night, leading the Pacers with 19 points, 14 boards, and five assists. Aaron Nesmith left the game early and is already ruled out for tonight. I won't be surprised if they sit Andrew Nembhard on a back-to-back, too.

What a DIME‼️

Jarace Walker goes behind-the-back to Taelon Peter. pic.twitter.com/iaUaxk2XOi

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) February 20, 2026

Walker is the best player left on the floor in that case, and I think he should easily keep piling up counting stats against a Washington team that is playing a lot of young players and focusing on development at this stage of the season.

Kyle Filipowski OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-111)

Filipowski should start at center tonight with Jusuf Nurkic out. The Jazz have also shut down newly-acquired big man Jaren Jackson Jr. and will be without their lead guard, Keyonte George. That means Lauri Markkanen will be hoisting up a lot of shots, and Filipowski is in a great spot to pick up some additional usage and plenty of rebounding opportunities.

The last time Filipowski had a spot start against the Grizzlies, he posted a massive 25 points and 13 boards. Memphis has no healthy centers right now, so the former Duke star should have a nice size advantage inside.

Naz Reid OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)

I have certain teams that have almost auto-targets when they are on the slate, and the Dallas Mavericks are one of those teams. We love big men against the Mavs, who continued to get beaten up inside by opposing big men this season. Rudy Gobert is anything but reliable, but Reid is a guy who can score with ease and pile up boards in the right spot.

We are looking to buck a recent downtrend from Naz, whose numbers slipped a bit going into the break. But I love him in this spot, and it certainly helps to know that he's smashed against Dallas before. He's gone 22-12 and 23-8 in two games against the Mavs this season.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NBA Value Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:30 AM ET

Jeremiah Fears OVER 13.5 Points (-137)

This game should be a good one for stats, as the Bucks have been terrible defensively without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Pelicans rarely play any defense. The big factor that favors Fears here is that Trey Murphy III is out tonight, pushing Fears into the lead guard role for the Pelicans.

In four games without Murphy, Fears has averaged 16.5 points and gone for 14+ in three of those four games. He's also sported a 30% usage rate, so while he's not an efficient scorer, he should be getting up plenty of shots. The Bucks have been a bottom-5 defense against point guards over the last month, so the matchup here is solid, too.

There's juice here on this number, but I like him even at 14.5 points if it moves and the odds improve.

AJ Green OVER 12.5 Points (-102)

Staying in the same game, we're going to target a points prop from the Milwaukee side, too. Shooting guard AJ Green has been awesome in February. He's got a green light to shoot the long ball, hoisting up 58 three-point attempts over his last six games! He's gone over this prop in five of those six games, and I like his chances tonight as his role should remain intact in Milwaukee's Giannis-less lineup.

Check back later today, I may post some more. Novig has been a bit slow to update some props in the late games.

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