Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

2024 Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Busts and Avoids

Bo Nix - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

With the NFL Draft complete, every fantasy sicko is diving headfirst into rookie draft season. While this is one of the most intriguing and deep rookie classes for fantasy that we have seen in some time, not every player is going to end up being a home run pick. 

Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. are more than likely to be the first two players off of the board in superflex formats - deservedly so. Both are set up for success while combining their talent with elite landing spots. While they have high expectations to live up to, I’m not going to be throwing either player an avoid or bust label. 

Five players stand out to me that you should be wary of during your rookie drafts. Pick these guys with caution this rookie draft season.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!


Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Bo Nix is routinely falling to Round 2 in rookie drafts despite being selected twelfth overall and having a clear path to being an instant starting quarterback. At cost, most people wouldn’t bat an eye and would select the guaranteed points in a superflex league. 

With first-round quarterbacks only hitting at a 46% rate, history suggests that only two or three of the rookie signal callers will be a success at the next level. There was not much to like about Nix as a prospect given that the scheme he played in at Oregon rarely had him throwing the ball down the field. As a matter of fact, nearly 30% of his passes were thrown behind the line of scrimmage last season. He won’t have much help at the receiver position with his top pass catchers being Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Josh Reynolds.

Pass on Nix for receiver upside - there is a lot of it available in this draft.


Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville selected Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick, adding him to a room of pass catchers already containing Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. On paper, there is room for Thomas to emerge as the go-to target for Trevor Lawrence. However, it’s not that easy.

Thomas saw little production in his college career until this past season, when he caught 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns. Despite his ideal size-speed combo that landed him in Round 1, Thomas profiles as more of a deep threat than anything else. He is not the best route runner and lacks run-after-catch threat. While he is raw as a complete receiver and could eventually develop, only having one year of college production matters. Draft with caution.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Joining a completely barren Chargers’ receiving room after moving on from Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Ladd McConkey is routinely sneaking into the first round of rookie drafts. Simple: his only target competition is Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston with an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert calling the shots. Surely McConkey will command targets, right?

Don’t let the rookie fever get to you. Ladd McConkey is not an NFL WR1. Don’t be surprised if Palmer actually leads the team in targets this season. McConkey was not productive as a freshman, only totalled 675 yards as a sophomore, and spent a lot of his junior season banged up. While he runs great routes, he struggles with the deep ball. Big plays are not the name of his game. He could factor in as an efficient chain mover, but he is easily replaceable and the Chargers will eventually grab a real WR1. Draft talent over situation in the first round of your rookie drafts.

A.D. Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts

A.D. Mitchell was projected as a back-end Round 1 pick, but fell in the NFL Draft to the Colts in Round 2. He joins a receiver room headlined by Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, who both will likely outpace him in targets on a run-first team.

While he has all of the physical traits of a starting outside receiver, Mitchell’s effort has been questioned at times and it shows in his game-to-game inconsistencies. He won’t have a consistent role in this offense as a rookie, and there are plenty of other receivers worth targeting in the second round of rookie drafts over him.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Ricky Pearsall was a surprise Round 1 pick at thirty-one overall to the San Francisco 49ers, potentially signalling the end of either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel’s time in the Bay Area. With so many mouths to feed in San Francisco, Pearsall won’t see consistent volume even Aiyuk or Samuel is moved. If they both remain with the team, he won’t even be startable as a rookie.

After spending five seasons in college, Pearsall is another example of a receiver who broke out late in his career. He only eclipsed 700 yards once - hitting 965 and four touchdowns as a super senior this past season at Florida. If you want to take a bet on a 49ers rookie receiver, look at Jacob Cowing late in rookie drafts and avoid Pearsall.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

Win More With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts


Taj Bradley15 mins ago

Punches Out 11 On Thursday
Giancarlo Stanton4 hours ago

Could Return To Outfield This Weekend
J.D. Martinez5 hours ago

Slugs First Career Walk-Off Homer
Alec Marsh5 hours ago

Throws Seven One-Hit Innings
Wilyer Abreu5 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice Thursday
Josh Jung5 hours ago

Continuing Rehab At Triple-A
Sasha Vezenkov6 hours ago

Reportedly Will Remain In The NBA
Luka Doncic6 hours ago

Probable For Friday Evening
Kristaps Porzingis6 hours ago

"Has A Chance" To Play In Game 4
Darius Slayton6 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns7 hours ago

Myles Garrett Tweaks His Hamstring In Minicamp
Amari Cooper7 hours ago

Holds Out Of Final Day Of Minicamp
Clayton Kershaw7 hours ago

Has Successful Sim Game
Trea Turner7 hours ago

Running Close To 100 Percent
Trevor Lawrence7 hours ago

Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence Agree On Five-Year, $275 Million Extension
Corey Seager7 hours ago

Scratched From Thursday's Lineup
Ozzie Albies8 hours ago

Delivers Four Hits In Thursday's Win
Coby Mayo8 hours ago

Playing In Rehab Game On Thursday
Taylor Ward8 hours ago

Returns To Lineup Thursday
Logan O'Hoppe8 hours ago

Back In Thursday's Lineup
Nolan Arenado8 hours ago

X-Rays Negative On Nolan Arenado's Hand
Eloy Jiménez8 hours ago

Eloy Jimenez Starting Rehab Assignment Thursday
Alvin Kamara10 hours ago

Skips Practice For Contract-Related Reasons
Courtland Sutton10 hours ago

Hints At Training Camp Holdout
Gus Edwards10 hours ago

"Likely" To Be Back For Training Camp
SJ10 hours ago

Sharks Appoint Ryan Warsofsky As Head Coach
Jalen Chatfield11 hours ago

Agrees To Three-Year Extension With Hurricanes
Kaapo Kakko11 hours ago

Signs One-Year Extension With Rangers
Randy Arozarena11 hours ago

Returning Thursday
Patrik Laine11 hours ago

Poised To Move On From Columbus
Edwin Díaz11 hours ago

Edwin Diaz Officially Reinstated From Injured List
Evan Rodrigues11 hours ago

Promoted To First Line Thursday
Aleksander Barkov11 hours ago

Will Play In Game 3 Versus Oilers
Willson Contreras11 hours ago

Taking Full Batting Practice On Thursday
Luis Castillo12 hours ago

Bumped Back To Friday
Ty France12 hours ago

Should Return Soon
Brandon Marsh14 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment
Juwan Johnson14 hours ago

To Undergo Foot Surgery
Atlanta Falcons14 hours ago

Falcons Lose 2025 Fifth-Round Pick Following Tampering Investigation
Josh Quinlan16 hours ago

On Two-Fight Losing Streak
Adam Fugitt16 hours ago

Could Be Fighting For His Job At UFC Vegas 93
Douglas Silva de Andrade16 hours ago

Searching For 30th Career Win At UFC Vegas 93
Miles Johns16 hours ago

Looking To Continue Success At UFC Vegas 93
Timmy Cuamba16 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win At UFC Vegas 93
Lucas Almeida16 hours ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC Vegas 93
Tim Hardaway Jr.16 hours ago

Re-Enters Rotation In Game 3
Dereck Lively II17 hours ago

Makes Finals History In Game 3
Luka Doncic17 hours ago

Fouls Out For First Time In Postseason Career
Kyrie Irving17 hours ago

Puts Up 35 Points In Losing Effort
Derrick White17 hours ago

Stays Productive In Game 3 Win
Jaylen Brown17 hours ago

Finishes Near 30-Point Triple-Double Wednesday
Jayson Tatum17 hours ago

Leads Celtics With 31 Points In Game 3 Victory
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Considered The Starter At The Moment
Jaxon Smith-Njigba1 day ago

Injured In Practice Wednesday
Darius Garland1 day ago

Teams "Backing Off" Trying To Aquire Darius Garland
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

Had Offseason Ankle Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

May Miss The Rest Of The Finals
Josh Jacobs1 day ago

Taking Part In Mandatory Minicamp
Markelle Fultz1 day ago

Hoping To Stay In Orlando
Juwan Johnson1 day ago

Expected To Miss A Good Chunk Of Time
Luka Doncic1 day ago

Good To Go On Wednesday
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 3
Laurent Brossoit1 day ago

Maple Leafs Have "Mutual Interest"
Jaccob Slavin1 day ago

Working On Long-Term Extension With Hurricanes
Corey Perry1 day ago

Set To Re-Enter Oilers Lineup On Thursday
Evander Kane1 day ago

Uncertain For Thursday's Game 3
Darnell Nurse1 day ago

Expected To Play In Game 3
Aleksander Barkov1 day ago

Practices On Wednesday, Will Travel To Edmonton
Jonathon Brooks1 day ago

Panthers Non-Committed About Jonathon Brooks' Training Camp Availability
Alvin Kamara2 days ago

Present For Mandatory Minicamp
Amari Cooper2 days ago

Absent Again Wednesday
Aaron Rodgers2 days ago

To Skip All Of Mandatory Minicamp
Keegan Bradley2 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At U.S. Open
Rickie Fowler2 days ago

Tough To Trust At U.S. Open
Tom Kim2 days ago

Striking The Ball Well Heading To Pinehurst
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

A Major Wild Card At Pinehurst
Tony Finau2 days ago

Seeking First Major Victory At U.S. Open
Cameron Smith2 days ago

The Best LIV Bet For U.S. Open
Ludvig Aberg2 days ago

Trust Ludvig Aberg At Pinehurst
Xander Schauffele2 days ago

A Top-10 Lock At U.S. Open
LeBron James2 days ago

"Staying Clear" From Lakers' Coaching Search
Luka Doncic2 days ago

Reportedly Playing With Pain-Killing Injections
Kyle Lowry2 days ago

Knicks Tracked Kyle Lowry Following His Exit From Miami
Darius Garland2 days ago

Trade Market For Darius Garland Cooling Off
Jimmy Butler2 days ago

Reportedly Eager To Stay In Miami
Jordan Love2 days ago

Packers Could Extend Jordan Love By Training Camp
Dean Burmester2 days ago

A Risky Play At U.S. Open
Dennis Schröder2 days ago

Dennis Schroder Hoping To Remain In Brooklyn
Jon Rahm2 days ago

Withdraws From U.S. Open
Xavier Legette2 days ago

Expected To Be Full-Go For Training Camp
PGA2 days ago

Alex Noren Brings Improved Short Game To Pinehurst
Daniel Jones2 days ago

Expects To Be Ready For Start Of Training Camp
Dustin Johnson2 days ago

Can Dustin Johnson Put A Rough Spring Behind Him?
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Fighting Poor Form Heading To U.S. Open
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Makes Pinehurst No. 2 Debut
Bryson DeChambeau2 days ago

Looks To Continue Major Success
Russell Henley2 days ago

In Top Form Heading To U.S. Open
PGA2 days ago

Byeong Hun An Could Contend At U.S. Open
Jason Day2 days ago

In Excellent Form Heading To U.S. Open
Tyrrell Hatton2 days ago

Back For Another U.S. Open
Will Zalatoris2 days ago

Finding Consistency Heading To U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Trending In The Wrong Direction For U.S. Open
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Retakes Points Lead After Sonoma Win
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Misses Out On Valuable Points After Getting Dumped By Ross Chastain
Matt Duchene3 days ago

Hopes To Stay In Dallas
Sidney Crosby3 days ago

Penguins Hope To Have "Quiet" Extension Talks With Sidney Crosby
Patrick Kane3 days ago

Blackhawks Not Planning A Reunion With Patrick Kane
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Earns First Top Five Since Las Vegas, but Not Without Controversy
NASCAR3 days ago

AJ Allmendinger Had a Quiet but Very Strong Run at Sonoma
Jacob Markstrom3 days ago

Senators Are "Aggressively" Pursuing Jacob Markstrom
Leon Draisaitl3 days ago

Expects Better Performance From Oilers In Game 2
Vincent Desharnais3 days ago

Re-Enters Oilers Lineup Monday
NASCAR3 days ago

Cam Waters Caught Up In Multi-Car Pile-Up In NASCAR Cup Series Debut
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Recovers To Second At Sonoma After Off-Track Excursion
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Engine Failure Gives Denny Hamlin His Second Straight Last-Place Finish At Sonoma
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Earns Surprise Top-10 Finish After Mid-Race Crash
Jared Cannonier4 days ago

Suffers Controversial TKO Loss
Nassourdine Imavov4 days ago

Scores Controversial Stoppage At UFC Louisville
Brunno Ferreira4 days ago

Scores Vicious First-Round Knockout
Dustin Stoltzfus4 days ago

2-5 In Last Seven Fights After UFC Louisville Loss
Miguel Baeza4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Earns 10th Top-10 Finish Of 2024 At Sonoma Raceway
Joey Logano4 days ago

Despite Starting On The Pole, Joey Logano Finishes 21st At Sonoma
Will Brown4 days ago

Supercars Star Will Brown Finishes 31st In His NASCAR Debut
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Puts up Massive Score for Fantasy Owners at Sonoma
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

Runs Out of Gas on Last Lap at Sonoma, Finishes 27th
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Keeps Momentum Rolling with Top 10 at Sonoma
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Avoids Chaos To Place 13th
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fourth At Sonoma
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Quietly Obtains Seventh At Sonoma
Julian Marquez4 days ago

Gets KO'd Early At UFC Louisville
MMA4 days ago

Zach Reese Gets 20-Second KO Win At UFC Louisville
Ricky Turcios4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC Louisville
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Picks Up Submission Win
Dustin Jacoby4 days ago

Gets Upset At UFC Louisville
Dominick Reyes4 days ago

Gets KO Win At UFC Louisville
Cam Waters5 days ago

Will Start 31st In His Cup Series Debut
NASCAR5 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Bubba Wallace At Sonoma?
Zane Smith5 days ago

Is Zane Smith Worth Rostering At Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Expect Tyler Reddick To Compete For The Win At Sonoma
Evander Kane5 days ago

Continues Slump In Game 1 Against Florida
Connor McDavid5 days ago

Finishes Stanley Cup Final Debut Scoreless
Brandon Montour5 days ago

Makes Franchise History In Saturday's Win