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Heading into week seven of the MLB season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently the number one ranked fantasy first baseman and the number one ranked fantasy third baseman in leagues that count all three rate stats (BA, OBP, SLG). Number two at 1B is Buster Posey, showing more power than he has in any season of his career. Also in the top five are Jared Walsh and Nate Lowe.
This isn't to highlight how wacky baseball is now or claim it's turning into fantasy football in terms of flukiness. On the contrary, I just want to point out some bats at the top to underscore that it has only been 35 or so games. Nearly 80 percent of the season still remains. Don't get careless with roster turnover. We are looking for good plays this individual week, sure, but also guys who should help for a longer haul.
For our purposes in this column, we are looking at Yahoo!'s rostered percentages, as well as its positional eligibility. We are searching for useful players rostered in fewer than 40 percent of Yahoo! leagues. With that being said, below are my first base and third base waiver wire pickups to consider for Week 7 - May 10 through May 16.
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Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
39% Rostered
Just barely eligible for this article, Walker has returned from the injured list after missing about three weeks. The only reason he is rostered in fewer than 40 percent of leagues is because of that extended absence. Take advantage. This is too good of a hitter to leave on the waiver wire for someone else.
The numbers thus far in 2021 are unimpressive, but the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. Instead, let's look back at the hitter Walker has become over the past two years. He is someone with elite power even if the home run totals don't necessarily imply that. His 48.5 and 48.8 hard-hit percentages in 2020 and 2019, respectively, do. With a 10.9 percent barrel rate and 10.1 percent walk rate for his career, this is a hitter who can wait for his pitch and do damage when he gets it. Since returning to full health, Walker has hit in the three spot each game and should be slotted back into fantasy lineups accordingly.
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
27% Rostered
Should I just keep mentioning Longoria each week until his rostered percentage is in line with reality? The percent of rosters he is on actually dropped in the past couple days. I don't understand it. The batted-ball data are going in the other direction. He continues to improve on his unlikely start. Longoria is hitting .280 with a .500 slugging percentage, and those are both vast underperformances. Baseball Savant has his xBA and xSLG at .307 and .645, the latter being in the 96th percentile. There just isn't much to dislike about his resume. With Week 7 games lined up against Texas and Pittsburgh, there isn't much to dislike about his upcoming slate either.
Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins
20% Rostered
Another bat recently coming off the IL, Anderson is a name to scoop up. He is in a similar boat to Walker. Neither has played many games yet in '21. Anderson has just 70 at-bats to his name. That makes the current numbers somewhat meaningless. What is more meaningful is recent history, where Anderson has been a rather good hitter for Miami. His barrel percentage has improved every year he's been in the league. We also saw his hard-hit percentage climb year over year from '17 through '19 before a dip in the pandemic season.
It feels like we still haven't seen Anderson as a finished product. He has more improvements to make in his game. And yet, his career .334 wOBA speaks to his baseline talent.
Josh Harrison, Washington Nationals
16% Rostered
Harrison had a somewhat slow week, which dropped his season average to .309. He isn't hitting the ball hard; that has never been his game. But Harrison is doing everything else we would want out of a low-rostered, waiver-wire add. First off, he plays every day and hits near the top of the Washington lineup. It is hard to find a better home than between Trea Turner and Juan Soto. Lineup positioning alone has helped catapult Starlin Castro to relevance.
Harrison is doing more than hitting between two people better than him, though. He is doing that, but he is also missing on just 19.5 percent of his swings and striking out nine percent of the time. He isn't making particularly hard contact, but the quality of his ABs has led to an xSLG even higher than his surprising real-life mark of .469. And then there's the .399 wOBA, putting Harrison among the very elite hitters in the game. Don't believe me, just take a look at Fangraphs' handy, dandy guide. Harrison isn't going to finish the year on the strong side of being between great and excellent, but he's played that way thus far.
Even expecting a downturn at some point, Harrison isn't important or reliable enough to properly sell high on. The return would be nothing approaching the production he is delivering. Instead, reap the rewards of a three-category performer (in standard 5x5) who is also excelling in OBP leagues.
Niko Goodrum, Detroit Tigers
7% Rostered
After a terribly slow start to the season, Goodrum is heating up. He is finding himself in the lineup every day thanks to collecting nine hits in the last seven days. More than that, though, he is putting quality contact on the baseball. Goodrum currently ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit percentage, which is not something he has shown in previous years.
Thanks to vast positional eligibility, Goodrum has always been an interesting source of speed for fantasy. He just wasn't able to hit well enough to play each day. That has changed, making him one of the better sources of steals among all CIs in the league, let alone among players rostered in fewer than 40 percent of leagues. Compare him with someone like Jonathan Villar. The latter, a much bigger name, is making zero quality contact this season. Austin Slater has also been a popular name for deep leagues, but he barely starts for San Francisco. Goodrum fills in both columns: an everyday speedster with power upside to boot.
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