Winners from the 2022-23 NBA Free Agency - Wings and Big Men (Part 2): Jusuf Nurkic, Rudy Gobert, Christian Wood

July 6, 2022

NBA players at SF/PF/C who changed teams this offseason and should have a good 2022-23 season (Part 2). These players could be fantasy basketball draft sleepers.

Free agency can be a great opportunity for players to find new homes that mesh with their playing styles and help them achieve their potential. It can also be a chance for players to think they're doing that and then wind up in a bad situation where they're unable to find NBA success.

This article is about the former, and while it's only been hours since the market officially opened, we're here to analyze some of the deals that have been confirmed in advance of the 2022-23 season tipoff later this fall.

Let's take a look at some players who changed teams and who should find their stock rising this season.

Fantasy Basketball: Winners from 2022-23 Free Agency - Wings and Big Men

Christian Wood, PF/C - Dallas Mavericks
JaVale McGee, C - Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs pulled off one of the better trades of the offseason in acquiring Wood from Houston in exchange for, basically and given later trades happening in the league, peanuts. Dallas gave away a bunch of players, yes, but none of them was expected to move the needle for them in the slightest way, let alone as much as Wood will supposedly do starting next season. Dallas' addition of veteran big JaVale McGee must also be included in this column as he's another clear winner, as is the whole Mavs staff for bringing in this couple of biggies.

We have yet to see how the depth chart ends looking, but some beat reporters are handing JVM the starting nod at the center spot. That might be a bit of a stretch though, with the pairing of Wood at the five and Dorian Finney-Smith at the four looking like the most probable starting unit. Anyway, McGee has proved of late to be a fantastic veteran presence on the court – though he's been limited to some 15-to-17 MPG in the last three seasons and still can do it at great levels – just ask the 2021 NBA Finals-bound Phoenix. McGee has strung seven seasons at above-average FP/min efficiency and has averaged 1.25 FP/min in the last two seasons (league average at 0.90) while putting up 18, 17+, and 20+ FPPG in the 2020-2022 span.

Wood is hardly an unknown player these days. He was a few years back, but not after his explosion in Detroit back in 2020. In his two years in Houston as the go-to center (108 of 109 games started playing 31+ MPG), Wood went on to average 1.22 FP/min and 38+ FPPG. He's coming off his best fantasy season ever after finishing as a top-7 C and top-34 player overall, no position filters applied. Wood fell a hair short of averaging a double-double in 2021 but did so last year with averages of 18 PPG, 10+ RPG, 2+ APG, 1 BPG, and nearly one steal a pop too. He can stretch the floor (39% three-point shooting on 4.9 3PA per game) and will be part of a much stronger team than Houston offered him. Win-win for all parties involved in this couple of deals.

Jarred Vanderbilt, PF/C - Utah Jazz

While it can be said that Vanderbilt is still trying to find himself in the NBA, last season was definitely a step in the right direction and a consolidating one when it comes to his future in the association. After three years of going through the growing pains of a newcomer, Vanderbilt finally played an important role in Minny starting 67 of 74 games for the Wolves playing a bit over 25 MPG. The results weren't great, mind you, but the league-average 0.90 FP/min he posted on a ridiculously low 10.9% usage rate was good enough to make him a viable role player/bench option for fantasy GMs out there.

Vanderbilt got involved in the monster Gobert trade a few days ago. He's joining a Jazz squad that will reportedly keep swinging and dealing (looking at you, Donovan Mitchell) and that is totally depleted of top-tier players – more than anywhere in the paint. Hassan Whiteside and Eric Paschal – along with Rudy Gobert, of course – are off the Jazz's roster right now due to trades or entering free agency. If JV is not the starting C, he'll definitely be the starting PF as things stand right now. Mike Conley/Mitchell/Bojan Bogdanovic is the starting trio poised to get the higher usage rates, but someone has to play inside and Vanderbilt should at least get the easy dump-in balls from the guards to drop down the rim with ease. As the main big in Utah next season, Vanderbilt gets a bump up when it comes to his (still average) upside.

Jusuf Nurkic, C - Portland Trail Blazers

Portland is seemingly choosing to just apply a soft makeup to its core to try and contend with Damian Lillard around while trying to keep the franchise player happy. Nothing really changed that much in Portland nor Nurkic's upside by extension. Nurkic wins in fantasy GMs view mostly because of the absence of changes in his future and because he avoided any sort of what-could-have-been what-ifs had he signed with another team. Yes, Portland added Jerami Grant to the roster in what is the closest guy/transaction that could impact Nurkic's upside, but not even him is that much of a threat to change Nurkic's outcome and outlook.

Nurk's main competition in the paint will be comprised of the likes of Nassir Little and Drew Eubanks (re-signed by just a couple of million this offseason), but not much more. Although he's had his up and downs, Nurkic has always been a reliable player in terms of production and efficiency. Other than in 2021 when he just played 37 games and fewer than 24 MPG, Nurkic has both started all games he's played in the last five seasons while also logging 26+ MPG in all of those campaigns. He's put up averages of 31.2 FPPG or higher in that span, topping at a career-high (not counting his eight-game 2020 season) of 37.1 in 2019. Last season, even though he ended up missing a large chunk (only 56 games played), he put up his second-best mark at 35.3 and still found a way to finish the year as the 17th-best C in fantasy leagues (top-84 overall) even though missing nearly 32% of the total RS games. That promising 2022, combined with the return of Lillard, has Nurkic as a probable riser next year.

Rudy Gobert, C - Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C - Minnesota Timberwolves

You don't sell the house to bring in a backup, do you? In other words, KAT is Minny's new power forward as he makes room for Gobert to man the paint at the five. This pairing is ridiculously unique in the NBA landscape. The Wolves are now paying $200M+ to their two centers, something no other team in the Association is currently doing (in fact, only one other C in Nikola Jokic has ever signed such an onerous deal). This move is wonderful and very intriguing and most people agree that it's still to be seen how these two fit between them and in the grand scheme of Wolves' things.

For one, it's clear that defensively Gobert will man the paint as he's always done while KAT will go defend the perimeter more often than not. I wouldn't get too worried about that, though. KAT might see a downtick in blocks and rebounds, but that should still have him at a floor of 8.5+ RPG and 0.5+ BPG all things considered. Gobert, the same, although perhaps to a lesser extent (around 12+ and 2+). When it comes to offense though, Gobert will have capable playmakers feeding him in D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards, so moving away from Donovan Mitchell should not impact his catch-and-dunk tendencies and easy-bucket-scoring numbers.

Gobert has logged a usage rate above 18% just once in his nine-year career. Seriously. That's phenomenal for KAT and the rest of the Wolves as he won't just come and command tons of touches. He's not that type of offensive player. If I had to highlight something negative on Gobert's resume is the time he's missed here and there, as he's played more than 71 games only once in the past five years. That said, he's still been a top-6 fantasy C in four years running and in five of the last six while also finishing all of those (except last season, top-28) inside the top-20 players in the whole league.

While it can be argued that KAT will end up being a loser, all things considered, I don't think the impact of Gobert on his fantasy upside will be that great. KAT has been a top-7 C in all but one of his pro seasons (top-15 in 2020 when he only played 35 games). He's also missed a bunch of games a la Gobert, but nothing too worrying. He missed on averaging a dub-dub for the first time last season by 0.2 rebounds, but that might be his new normal with Gob around. Even then, Gobert will free KAT a lot as he'll take tons of defensive attention for himself in the paint while also allowing KAT to expand his game further getting back to the career-high 7.9 3PA he attempted in 2020. Nothing is going to prevent KAT from having another top-10 overall season with upside for a top-5 finish if he can stay healthy for 70+ games.

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