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Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 21 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
We're getting closer and closer to the fantasy playoffs. That means these two-start streamers will be in high demand now more than ever, and owners will need to take care with who they choose.
All that out of the way, Week 19 was a big whiff. I already mentioned last week that two of the guys from the Week 19 column went on the IL shortly after publication. Well as it turns out Daniel Norris was the only pitcher that week to make both of his starts, and, well...it wasn't great. Out of the one-start pitchers that week, Dylan Cease was the best choice after allowing two runs over five innings with six strikeouts to get the win over Detroit. As for Week 20 we already have a couple of strong front-runners. Dillon Peters earned the win in a quality start against Pittsburgh, allowing two runs over six innings with six strikeouts. Meanwhile, Ivan Nova earned a complete-game win over Houston, allowing one unearned run on four hits with three strikeouts.
As the wise warthog Pumbaa once said, "You've got to put your behind in your past." Let's move on from last week and take a look at who to stream in Week 21.
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Week 21 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Marco Gonzales, SEA - 49% owned
Probable opponents: @ TBR, vs TOR
This isn't Gonzales' first time on this list, which makes sense as he's been arguably one of the top streaming options in fantasy this season. He has recorded a quality start in five of his last seven outings, while posting a 3-3 record and 3.97 ERA in that span. In his last time out, Gonzales took the loss despite allowing three runs over six innings with six strikeouts.
He'll open up the week with a rematch against Tampa Bay after tying his season-high with nine strikeouts against the Rays earlier this month while allowing just two runs over 6 1/3 innings. Gonzales should be in line for a similar performance in Week 21, as the Rays are averaging 4.0 runs and 7.7 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .239. After traveling to Tampa Bay, Gonzales will return home to take on the Blue Jays for what will likely be a more challenging start. Toronto is averaging 6.1 runs over their last 10 games while hitting .253, but they are also averaging 10.0 strikeouts per game in that span. Add on the fact that the Blue Jays are striking out at a higher rate against left-handed starters (26.7 percent) than against right-handers (23.2 percent), and Gonzales could still have decent value against Toronto.
It's the classic conundrum of one good start against one iffy start for Gonzales this week. Gonzales has been a solid starter throughout the season, but he has had some rough outings sprinkled throughout and Toronto has the potential to be a rough start. All that being said, I'm still putting my money on Gonzales to do well this week and he should be one of the top streamers to target.
Zach Davies, MIL - 29% owned
Probable opponents: @ STL, vs ARI
Davies makes his return to the Brewers rotation after a stint on the Injured List and will be in line for a two-start week for Milwaukee. While he struggled in his last three outings before going on the IL to the tune of an 11.77 ERA over 13 innings, prior to that Davies was 8-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 68 strikeouts over 109 2/3 innings.
Starting off Week 21, Davies will head on the road to take on the Cardinals, who are averaging 4.4 runs and 9.1 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .245 in that span. The matchup looks even better when you realize that 24 of the 44 runs the Cardinals have scored over their last 10 games all came in just two games. Davies has also already faced the Cardinals in St. Louis once this year, although owners will hope he does better than his prior performance in which he allowed two runs with four strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings. In his second start of the week, Davies will return to Milwaukee to face the Diamondbacks, who have averaged 5.2 runs and hit .268 over their last 10 games while going 5-5 in that span. Like with St. Louis, Davies has already faced Arizona once this year, allowing just one run over seven innings to earn his eighth win of the year. Davies should also get a boost in value as the Diamondbacks have hit worse against right-handed starters (.251 average, .761 OPS) than against lefties (.277, . 815).
Davies isn't a high-strikeout pitcher, but he should provide a boost to any team in ERA and wins. Gonzales should be the first pitcher to target from this section, but Davies will be a solid second-choice for owners who miss out on Gonzales.
Week 21 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Dakota Hudson, STL - 26% owned
Probable opponents: vs MIL, vs COL
After a rough three-start stretch, Hudson bounced back in his last outing to earn the win and the quality start over the Royals as he struck out four batters over six scoreless innings. Hudson has recorded quality starts in three of his last seven outings with 29 strikeouts in 35 innings, and he'll look to continue that production in his first matchup against Milwaukee since April. Despite allowing nine earned runs in two starts against the Brewers this year, it should be a solid matchup for Hudson as Milwaukee is currently averaging 4.4 runs and 9.9 strikeouts over their last 10 games. Hudson will then have a near identical matchup in his second outing against Colorado, as the Rockies are averaging 4.5 runs and 7.9 strikeouts over their last 10 games.
Both of these starts will come at home, which should be a boost for Hudson as he has better numbers in St. Louis (3.60 ERA, 1.517 WHIP) than on the road (4.01, 1.589). Hudson has at least five strikeouts in five of his last eight starts, and owners should expect solid fantasy value out of him this week as one of the safer options in the "Under 25%" group.
Kyle Freeland, COL - 16% owned
Probable opponents: vs CIN, vs MIL
It seems that there's always one guy who shows up on this list for strikeout potential and strikeout potential alone, and this week it's Freeland. In three of his last six starts Freeland has recorded at least five strikeouts, and over he has 14 strikeouts over his last 17 innings of work. He'll start off the week against the Reds, who are averaging 5.1 runs over their last 10 games but are also averaging 7.8 strikeouts in that span. Freeland will then face off against Milwaukee, who as we mentioned before are averaging nearly 10 strikeouts a game over their last 10 games.
Like I said, if you're looking at Freeland this week you're looking for only strikeouts from him. He's pitching at home for both starts, and with the way the Reds' offense is going, Freeland will likely have a bloated ERA. But if you're willing to punt ERA this week, Freeland should be a good option if everyone else on this list has already been claimed.
Kolby Allard, TEX - 3% owned
Probable opponents: vs LAA, @ CHW
OK, I know he's only made two starts this year, but I have a good feeling about Allard this week. Allard was racking up the strikeouts with an 8.3 K/9 in Triple-A, and he has 12 strikeouts over his first 10 innings of the season. He'll start off the week against the Angels, who have averaged 5.1 runs over their last 10 games. While that may be cause for hesitation with a rookie pitcher on the mound, the Angels have also averaged 10.0 strikeouts per game in that span, plus they are hitting worse against left-handed starters (.238 average, .747 OPS) than against right-handers (.259, .769). In his second start of the week, Allard will take on the White Sox, who are averaging 5.0 runs over their last 10 games but are also striking out at a high clip with 8.3 strikeouts per game in that span.
This is a high-risk, high-reward player. Allard will be making career starts No. 4 and 5 this week, and he has never face the Angels or the White Sox before. Both teams have been putting up high-scoring performances over the last two weeks, but I believe that Allard will be the best guy to choose in the "Under 25%" group, and he has a real shot at being the best pick of the entire column.
