Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Projected ADP Risers - QBs and TEs to Target in Early Drafts

Welcome to part one of a new series on fantasy football ADPs. Here, we will take a look at the current state of ADPs and predict which players are going to see their draft slot rise between now and the heart of draft season in late August/early September. Understanding where player ADPs are headed can be beneficial in all league formats. A rising ADP naturally corresponds with an increase in overall value. This can provide you with the knowledge regarding what players to buy low on in keeper/dynasty leagues.

If you are in a redraft league that drafts early, perhaps before the preseason, you can use this information to really stack your team with assets that you are confident will be more valuable in just a few short weeks after your draft. If you are in a redraft league that drafts late, it is unfortunate that these ADP spikes will happen before you can capitalize, but it is still helpful in preparing for your draft. When you mock draft in June or July, you can do so knowing the team you are getting is likely much better than the one you will be able to construct in your actual draft. It also prevents us all from having unrealistic expectations (hopefully).

Let's look at the QBs and TEs that should see their ADPs rise over the summer. Note: *All ADP data can be found here. To compare with our own RotoBaller rankings, check right here.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!


Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)

Current ADP: 102, QB11

Fantasy owners have been warming up to the idea of starting a rookie at QB, but there is still a healthy dose of skepticism. It is that fear that has Kyler Murray's ADP so depressed at the moment. That is going to change. Once the reports start flowing about Murray's performance in training camp and we get the usual glowing reviews from coaches, it won't take much for fantasy owners to be all in on the dual-threat rookie. Fantasy owners already have an affinity for rushing QBs because of the perceived floor they bring.

Murray has legitimate overall QB1 upside and that tantalizing reality will be too much to resist. All it will take is one highlight-reel play in the preseason and Murray's ADP will skyrocket. I expect him to find himself in at least the 80s before all is said and done.


Cam Newton (QB, CAR)

Current ADP: 121, QB14

This one seems purely a result of uncertainty about health. Cam Newton was playing with a serious shoulder injury last season and it showed. Newton rushed for a career-low four touchdowns and his 488 yards rushing were the second-fewest of his career. Yet, he still finished as the QB9. From Weeks 2-11, Newton threw for multiple touchdowns in every game. Over his career, Newton has never not been a QB1. Now we're supposed to believe he will be drafted as a high-end QB2? No chance.

As we get closer to the season and concerns about Newton's shoulder are assuaged, he will creep into the top 12 and likely top 10 where he belongs. I expect his ADP to end up no lower than the 90s.


Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)

Current ADP: 174, QB23

I do not like Matthew Stafford as a fantasy QB. He has such a low ceiling. He's a worse version of Philip Rivers. However, last season was just spectacularly bad. Stafford wasn't his usual QB10-14 self. He somehow managed to finish as the QB30 at just 12.9 fantasy PPG. Suffice it to say there is no way he will be that bad again. I'm not suggesting anyone should go out and actively target Stafford, but by the time we are ready to draft, Stafford will at least creep up into the mid QB2 range.


Jared Cook (TE, NO)

Current ADP: 81, TE8

There is no stopping the Jared Cook hype train. Fantasy owners have this infatuation with chasing the production of different players. Ever since Jimmy Graham left New Orleans, the search was on for his replacement. The reality is "Saints TE" was never a valuable commodity, even with Drew Brees. Jimmy Graham was the valuable commodity. Nevertheless, to this day, people still chase "the next Jimmy Graham." Cook finally (sort of) lived up to the hype last season with a TE5 finish. If Cook was the TE5 in Oakland with the terrible Derek Carr, imagine what he will do with Drew Brees!

Cook may very well live up to the hype this season, too, but you are going to have to pay for it in advance. There is not a single TE behind him in the rankings with any shot at jumping him. However, I can certainly envision a scenario where he jumps Eric Ebron, Evan Engram, or Hunter Henry. And even if he doesn't, the hype train will push his ADP into the mid to low 70s, closer to the aforementioned three TEs.


Vance McDonald (TE, PIT)

Current ADP: 103, TE11

David Njoku has an ADP of 79. How can anyone justify Njoku ahead of Vance McDonald at all, let alone a full two rounds? Last season, Njoku and McDonald both played 14 games. Njoku outscored McDonald by exactly 8.6 fantasy Let's analyze what each of their respective teams has done this offseason. The Browns traded for Odell Beckham, signed Kareem Hunt, and signed another TE, Demetrius Harris. The Steelers traded away Antonio Brown, let Le'Veon Bell walk, and declined to resign their other TE, Jesse James. Njoku is an athletic freak that can't run routes, can't block, and can't catch. McDonald is an athletic freak that can do all of those things and has far less competition for targets.

As of right now, the Steelers have very little behind JuJu Smith-Schuster on the depth chart. Njoku has to compete with Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Duke Johnson/Kareem Hunt when he returns. Fantasy owners will realize the opportunity that McDonald has. I believe McDonald and Njoku's ADPs will flip flop by the end of the preseason.

More Fantasy Football Analysis

More Recent Articles


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Jo Adell

The most coveted type of player in fantasy baseball is the batter who can hit home runs, steal bases and hit for contact. Stolen bases are harder to find, as more big-league teams are opting to take a cautious approach to baserunning. Additionally, batting average has declined because hitters are striking out more often, as... Read More

ADP Cost Analysis - Gleyber Torres vs. Corey Seager

Fantasy baseball players acquire draft position through osmosis. The more drafts that take place, the larger sample we gain of how owners of all experience levels feel about someone. Granted, inexperienced players often rely on rankings from experts, which goes to form ADP into something resembling common rankings, but the outcome is unimpeachable, collected data... Read More

ADP Cost Analysis – Aaron Nola vs Lance Lynn

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More

2020 Regression Candidates: Breakout Outfielders

Every season in MLB you can count on the fact that you will have breakout performances from players. Sometimes these breakout performances can be seen coming a mile away and sometimes they catch you entirely by surprise. Regardless of which type of breakout we see, you will almost always have to pay up for that... Read More

Bases Loaded Podcast - Quality Start Episode 1

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) and Matt Williams (@MattWi77iams) of the Turn Two Podcast come together for a new co-pod series called "Quality Start". This will be a joint effort and episodes will be found on Bases Loaded as well as the Turn Two Podcast. We are joined by Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) as well for this one.... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Adrian Houser

In life, there seem to be two kinds of people, the flashy and the boring. “Flashy” people like high-end materialistic things such as nice clothing or an expensive car. "Boring” people prefer the simpler things in life like spending time with their loved ones. This seems to be true when it comes to fantasy baseball,... Read More

Taking Out the Trash: Pitchers Who Should Junk Their Worst Pitch

Pitch mix changes can make or break a player’s season. That obviously goes for fantasy value as well as real-life. We've already seen how throwing an effective pitch more often could make a huge improvement a la Patrick Corbin. Sometimes pitchers just need to eliminate a pitch to see their numbers improve. Consider the following: Mitch... Read More

ADP Showdown – Trevor Story vs. Trea Turner

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More

Bases Loaded Podcast - All Things Fantasy Baseball w/ Nick Pollack (@PitcherList)

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is  joined by Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) and they discuss all things fantasy baseball! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune... Read More

Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available... Read More

ADP Showdown - Whit Merrifield vs Austin Meadows

Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already begun dealing with tough draft position decisions. The outfield position is deep as always, but... Read More

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Third Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More

2020 Dynasty Leagues: Players to Sell (Premium Content)

As draft day approaches in dynasty leagues, the window to sell-high on a big name has never been better. The first days of spring training are a chance to cash in on players who may have hit their peak value before the 2020 season begins. Bartering is a matter of risk vs reward. You hate... Read More