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Rookie NFL quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett will be early draft picks in 2022. Gladys Tyler compares the two QB prospects and evaluates their fantasy football upside.
We have heard it ad nauseum that this is a ‘weak’ rookie quarterback class in 2022, but if you are looking at your dynasty roster objectively, then you might want to start here.
Of course, where each player gets drafted matters, but let’s give them an early look.
Today, we will compare two of the top QB prospects in Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett to determine what their future NFL outlook and fantasy football value might be. When you're done, read up on Andrew Lalama's in-depth prospect profiles on each: Willis breakdown, Pickett breakdown.
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Malik Willis, Liberty
Measurables:
6’1”, 219 lbs., Arm 31 ¾”, Hands 9 ½”
Player:
Willis is a transfer from Auburn. He played two seasons at Liberty where he rushed for 27 touchdowns on 1,844 yards. He passed for 47 touchdowns with 17 interceptions and 5107 yards.
In his first season at Liberty, he completed 64.2% of his passes on 270 pass attempts. His second season he dropped down to 61.1% completion percentage, attempting 339 pass attempts. He also threw twice as many interceptions in his last season than he did his first. Willis was also sacked 51 times in his final season at Liberty.
Draft Analysis:
- Per ProfootballNetwork.com, “His arm talent is rare, raw and improved this past season with every throw.”
- Ranks 22nd on ProFootballFocus.com Big Board
Lance Zierlein’s Analysis:
Strengths: dual-threat ability and potential; rare escapability and elusiveness on the go; ran for 100 yards five times over the last two years; ability to recognize the blitz and get the ball out; beats safeties on deep side line throws; ability to work through progressions when protected; rapid mesh-point transition to throw on RPOs
Weakness: below average climbing pocket and staying throw ready; allows throwing windows to close on him; poor field recognition and progression quickness over second half of season; pressed and took unnecessary sacks; needs to calm and settle his feet from the pocket; lack of touch greatly diminished his margin of error as a thrower; accuracy plummets when scrambling
Draft Network Analysis:
Willis is the most physically gifted quarterback prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft, but his performance on the field in 2021 took a bit of a step back from ball security standpoint. Willis is currently more of a thrower than a quarterback and he relies on his athleticism to help facilitate and create explosive plays.
Ideal Role: Developmental starting quarterback
Scheme Tendencies: RPO and quarterback run heavy offenses with featured passing in shallow areas and vertically downfield.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Panthers
Measurables:
Height 6’3 ¼”, Weight, 221 lbs., Arm 30 7/8”, Hands 8 ½”
Player:
Pickett has played in 39 college games. In his 2020 season he completed 61.6% of his passes on 469 attempts. He finished the season with 3098 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also included 110 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
In his 2021 season he finished the year completing 67.2% of his passes on 497 attempts. He had a school-record 4319 passing yards, 42 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He rushed for five touchdowns on 241 rushing yards. Pickett completed his year by being third in the Heisman trophy voting.
Draft Analysis:
- Rotoballer: “Pickett is gifted at putting the ball where it needs to be, whether that means allowing a receiver to run after the catch, using touch in the red zone or playing the ball deep where only his receiver can run under it.”
- Per ProFootballNetwork.com, “Pickett has a crisp compact and efficient throwing motion which easily generates velocity. Arm strength isn’t elite but has good arm talent overall. Has exceptional mechanics in structure.”
- Ranks 47th on ProFootballFocus.com Big Board. PFF has given him a 92.2 grade
Lance Zierlein’s Analysis:
Strengths: touchdown-to-interception ratio went from 13:9 in 2020 to 42:7 in 2021; passing scheme required full-field reads; good recognition and decision on combo route throws to all levels; arm strength to push deep outs without a problem; able to extend play and win on the move with his arm; arm talent to make off-platform throws
Weakness: nervous feet and poise can get the best of him despite clean pockets; drifts outside pocket rather than climbing the scan; poor placement and touch added to drop issues; finesse throws into buckets are below average; needs to take the incompletion instead of sack
Draft Network Analysis:
Pickett brings good size, mobility, accuracy, poise, toughness, and leadership to the table. When it comes to areas of concern entering the next level, his small hands and reconciling his elite 2021 season against a considerably large sample size of modest play is something to be considered.
Ideal Role: Starting quarterback
Scheme fit: Spread
Conclusion
There are obviously more 2022 rookie quarterbacks that are under consideration: Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati, Sam Howell of North Carolina and Matt Corral of Mississippi (who is recovering from ankle injury), but the consensus top two are currently Pickett and Willis.
Where you go from here depends on your preference. Willis has potentially the higher ceiling. Pickett is more “starter ready.” Willis showed accuracy issues in his final year, while Pickett showed an astronomical improvement in his last year. Pickett’s 8 ½” hand size is small and could prove to be an issue if drafted to a cold weather team.
And then there is the 2022 NFL Draft. With quarterback needy teams gobbling up veteran quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay, Russell Wilson going to Denver, and Carson Wentz going to Washington, where does that leave teams who legitimately need a quarterback?
The Texans need a lot and with the third pick a quarterback does not seem to be their most pressing need. That leaves the Carolina Panthers who currently own the sixth pick in the draft. They passed of Justin Fields last season and now potentially either Pickett or Willis will be put in the hands of Matt Rhule and newly-hired offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. McAdoo spent last season consulting with the Dallas Cowboys.
While the early look at the 2022 rookie quarterback isn’t all that great, their prospects are even bleaker.
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