Fact or Fiction? Determining Whether Starting Pitchers Equal Quarterbacks In Fantasy Using "Teams In A Vacuum" Concept

Glenn analyzes whether starting pitchers equal quarterbacks in fantasy using "Teams in a Vacuum" (TIAV) concept. Do the draft strategies for these two positions compare in fantasy?

Do starting pitchers equal quarterbacks when it comes to fantasy sports? In the days of Peyton Manning, there was always a single quarterback in the first-round rankings just like Spencer Strider today. The second-round rankings had Drew Brees and Tony Romo represented in this year’s baseball rankings by Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes.

But in fantasy football, some whiz kid figured out that the top quarterbacks score around the same number of points, so you can wait several rounds to draft one. Today’s fantasy football rankings have adjusted accordingly. However, starting pitchers (SPs) remain in the early rounds of fantasy baseball rankings. Rotisserie baseball doesn’t have a standard deviation to calculate, so you still see starting pitchers ranked in the first few rounds. If you draft a starting pitcher in an early round, are you paying too much for too little? What does history say?

Teams In A Vacuum (TIAV) utilizes historical data to draft teams using the Average Draft Position (ADP) and superimposing the fantasy results for the corresponding season. Although historical data for fantasy baseball is not as well archived as fantasy football, I was able to gather the past seven years of ADP lists and season results. For simplicity, ADP and fantasy rankings are used synonymously in this article. Let's look at what the teams are comprised of.

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Table 1 – Baseball Team Positions Drafted by TIAV

Please note that not enough catchers score in the top 300 players, so the catcher position is not included. 

The scoring categories are taken from the Yahoo rotisserie leagues:

• Batting -- Runs, Home Runs, Runs Batted In (RBI), Batting Average, Stolen Bases
• Pitching -- Strikeouts, Wins, Saves, Earned Run Average (ERA), Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP)

After all the data is read into the computer, ADP is used as a guide to snake-draft teams for each year. Winning teams are calculated for each season using rotisserie scoring. For each category, teams are awarded points based on the order they finished. In a 10-team league, first place gets 10 points, second gets nine points, and down to last place, which receives one point. All of the points from each category are totaled up to find the winning team.

Table 2 – 2022 10-Team Rotisserie League Winner

Starting pitchers participate in four of the 10 categories -- strikeouts, wins, ERA, and WHIP. Unfortunately, starting pitchers are generally a drag on ERA. For example, the top-100 2023 starting pitchers averaged a 3.6 ERA while the top-100 relief pitchers (RPs) averaged a 2.9 ERA.

WHIP is generally the equivalent between the two positions. In 2023, the top-100 starting pitchers averaged a 1.15 WHIP while the top-100 relief pitchers averaged a slightly better 1.13 WHIP. In other words, starting pitchers are drafted for their contribution to three categories. Most early-round batters are prioritized above starting pitchers because they contribute to four categories -- runs, home runs, RBI, and batting average.

Table 3 – 2022 12-Team Rotisserie League Winner

The fact that starting pitchers are sprinkled through the first few rounds appears to make a difference depending on the league size. As seen in Table 4, the value of your first SP goes up as the league size increases.

Table 4 – Draft Position of First Starting Pitcher on Winning Teams

Do Starting Pitchers Equal Quarterbacks?

Sometimes. TIAV shows that your first starting pitcher should not be drafted for several rounds in shallow leagues (10-team and less). In deep leagues (16-team and greater), starting pitchers should be considered from the first round. Of course, the vast majority of fantasy baseball leagues are 12 teams.

TIAV shows that the league can be won with a first-round starting pitcher but it is against the odds. Looking at the 2024 rankings, Spencer Strider would have to slip from the late first round to the second round to be considered. Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes would have to drop several spots before consideration as well.

The third round would be the first opportunity to draft a starting pitcher at their regular ranking. In other words, Teams In A Vacuum indicates you should be skeptical of drafting a starting pitcher in a 12-team league before the third round. Happy drafting!

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