Fantasy baseball success has a lot to do with drafting undervalued players. An equally important but less heralded draft tactic is avoiding overvalued players. While these guys may put up decent numbers, their current average draft positions do not offer substantial value:

ADP (Average Draft Position) is among starting pitchers and taken from FantasyPros.com.

Starting Pitchers We Dislike

Alex Wood – Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 65th
RB Rank: 77th

Alex Wood looked like a stud during his first couple years in the majors. After posting a 3.13 ERA and a 1.33 over 77.2 innings in 2013, the southpaw fared even better in 2014. As a starter that season, Wood pitched 156.1 innings, producing a 2.59 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. His 8.69 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 were indicative of his excellent arsenal and pinpoint command. Wood posted these outstanding numbers despite his average fastball velocity dropping from 91.7mph in 2013 to 89.8mph in 2014.

Wood’s average fastball velocity further decreased to 89.3mph in 2015, and the left-hander hit his breaking point. His 3.69 ERA and 1.36 WHIP were both career highs. The 6.60 K/9 he maintained was far below his career average. While Wood’s splits against righties and lefties were similar in 2013 and 2014, the southpaw was pummeled by righties to the tune of a .284/.359/.429 slash line in 2015.

Adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire last year, Wood produced a 49.5 GB%, the highest of his career. The 25-year old should still be a productive pitcher, but his decrease in strikeouts is a major concern for fantasy purposes. A bump in fastball velocity would be an encouraging sign, but for now Wood is being overvalued in drafts.

Collin McHugh – Houston Astros

ADP: 44
RB Rank: 57th

Houston right-hander Collin McHugh came out off nowhere in 2014 to post an 11-7 record with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 154.2 innings. Failing to live up to the lofty standards he set in 2014, McHugh produced a 3.89 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP en route to a 19-8 record last season. McHugh benefited from elite run support in 2015, ranking sixth in the majors with 5.80 RS/9. One of the biggest concerns with the pitcher’s state line was his K/9, which decreased from 9.14 in 2014 to 7.56 last season.

McHugh, who turns 29 in June, saw his average fastball velocity drop from 2014’s 91.4 mph to 2015’s 90.3 mph. McHugh added a cut-fastball to his repertoire. Although the pitch was extremely hittable (.304/.360/.382), it induced ground balls, prevented home runs, and likely kept batters from sitting on four-seam fastballs.

The real problem with McHugh’s arsenal in 2015 was his slider. After holding hitters to a .206/.230/.329 slash line and a 12.5 SwStr% in 2014, the pitch faltered to a .317/.358/.465 line and a 8.3 SwStr% in 2015. It is essential for McHugh to have more success with the slider in 2016 if he wants to approach the success of his 2014 campaign.

McHugh is a crafty pitcher who should have a solid season. But coming off a lucky year in which he posted 19 Ws, McHugh will be overvalued in drafts. He is not the same pitcher he was in 2014, when his average fastball velocity was an outlier when viewed next to his other seasons:

2012: 89.9 mph
2013: 90.2 mph
2014: 91.4 mph
2015: 90.3 mph

Although McHugh can compensate for the diminishing fastball using his other pitches, he will struggle rack up strikeouts near his peak 9.14 K/9 rate. The Houston right-hander offers a stable floor but limited potential.

Doug Fister – Houston Astros

ADP: 80
RB Rank: 117

From 2011-2014, Doug Fister maintained a 3.11 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, ranking seventh and 11th in those categories among pitchers who accumulated at least 750 innings. Failing to replicate that success in 2015, the veteran posted a 4.60 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 86.0 innings before being moved into the Nationals’ bullpen. Now part of the Astros rotation, Fister will try to recapture his former glory.

Fister’s 2015 peripheral stats suggest he is fighting an uphill battle. The 44.6 GB% the right-hander produced last year was Fister’s lowest GB% since his 2009 rookie campaign, in which he pitched just 61.0 innings. With a decrease in ground balls came an increase in home runs. Fister’s 1.22 HR/9 rate marked the first time he allowed at least 1.00 HR/9 since 2009.

The right-hander’s 2.10 BB/9 was also his highest mark since 2009. Fister’s K/9 rate, which with the exception of 2012’s 7.63 K/9 was always mediocre, fell to an unforgivable 5.02 K/9 during his 15 starts in 2015. The right-hander’s 5.2 SwStr% ranked third worst among pitchers who tallied at least 70 innings, and Fister’s 86.2 mph average fastball velocity ranked ninth slowest among that same demographic. Both stats indicate that Fister’s decreased strikeouts were no fluke.

Still only 32, Fister has time to right the ship. Unfortunately, his stats suggest his skills are deteriorating–or have already deteriorated. Leave Fister for another owner and use precious draft picks on more worthy pitchers.

Lance Lynn – St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 92
RB Rank: Unranked

Every year there is a pitcher who seemingly slips in the draft. An owner recognizes the name and thinks, “He’s pretty good.” After selecting the player, this owner is unmercifully ridiculed by league members who inform him that the ‘pretty good’ player is out for the year. Don’t be that owner. Know that Lance Lynn had Tommy John surgery and will be out until at least 2017.

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