RADIO
Our long national nightmare is over. By that, I mean that football season returns tonight! It’s been a tough stretch since the New England Patriots won yet another championship but the 2019 NFL season kicks off Thursday with the Green Bay Packers visiting the Chicago Bears.
This Bears team has some expectations. They have a formidable defense and third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky guides what should be a promising offense. The competence of that offense will go a long way towards determining their contender status.
On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers are trying to make it work with new coach Matt LaFleur, hoping that the offensive game plan will bring the best out of star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The NFC North is up for grabs and tonight’s matchup will set the stage for rest of the 2019 season.
Here are a bunch of angles to consider when playing props on Monkey Knife Fight for the first game of the 2019 NFL season.
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GREEN BAY-CHICAGO
OVER/UNDERS
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – Rodgers is great, of course, but threw for 271 or more yards in nine of 16 games last season, including both head-to-head matchups with the Bears. Nevertheless, historically, Rodgers hasn’t thrown for big yardage against Chicago. He’s 16-5 in 21 games, averaging 245.5 passing yards per contest. To top it all off, the Bears had the league’s best pass defense last season, allowing 5.3 net yards per pass attempt.
Mitch Trubisky UNDER 246.5 PASSING YARDS – It’s entirely possible that the Bears’ quarterback has a breakout season in his third year in the league but he’s thrown for 247 yards or more in seven of 23 career games. Although he passed for 297 yards against the Packers in a 2017 game, Trubisky was held to 235 and 171 in two games against the Packers last season and it’s not unreasonable to believe that the Packers have improved their pass defense to make it all the more challenging for Trubisky to get loose.
Allen Robinson OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS – This is a fair number for the Bears’ number one receiver as he put up at least 61 receiving yards in seven of 14 games, including playoffs, last season. Reports indicate that Robinson is healthier this season, another year removed from his 2017 knee injury, and is the clear number one receiving option for Chicago.
Geronimo Allison UNDER 3.5 RECEPTIONS – It’s entirely possible that this is indeed going to be a breakout season for Allison, the fourth-year Packers wide receiver, but it requires some projection to count on him to grab four passes against the stingy Bears Defense.
Davante Adams UNDER 84.5 RECEIVING YARDS – If there is a Packers receiver to pick in the season opener, it’s Adams, one of the most productive receivers in the game but, even in last season’s breakout year, Adams managed 85 or more yards in seven of 15 games.
David Montgomery OVER 58.5 RUSHING YARDS – The rookie out of Iowa State has been getting lots of preseason love and appears poised to take on the role of primary ball carrier for the Bears. With Chicago favored at home, there is also an argument to be made for the opportunity that could come for Montgomery to help run out the clock.
RAPID FIRE
Aaron Rodgers -1.5 fantasy points vs. Mitch Trubisky – The difference in the quality of the respective defenses involved in this game does tend to level the playing field, but Rogers’ track record is such that he’s the safer play to accumulate more fantasy points in this game. Just as being on the favored club could give Montgomery more opportunities to run the rock, Rodgers may be looking at more chances to throw if the Packers fall behind.
Aaron Jones +3.5 fantasy points vs. Davante Adams – The Bears allowed just 3.8 yards per rushing attempt last season, the second-best mark in the NFC, and that makes for a compelling matchup against Jones, who has averaged 5.5 yards per carry through the first 24 games of his NFL career. The expectation is that Jones is going to get more work in his third season and might be a key component to the matchup against the Bears.
Tarik Cohen -0.5 receptions vs. Geronimo Allison – Cohen is heading into his third season and has established himself as a reliable receiving threat out of the backfield, though he managed at least four receptions in eight of 17 games last season. Since I’m already taking Allison under 3.5 receptions, might as well hope that Cohen, who averaged 4.4 per game last season, can go for four in his own right.
Aaron Jones +5.5 rushing yards vs. David Montgomery – There are certainly unknowns for both of these running backs, especially when it comes to how much they will be used. The expectation is that Jones and Montgomery will play significant roles and Jones has shown enough through his first two seasons to feel like his rushing production, especially when getting an extra 5.5 yards as the underdog.
Anthony Miller +3.5 receiving yards vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Taking Miller presumes that he’s recovered from a sprained ankle and healthy enough to be in the Bears’ starting lineup Thursday. If that’s the case, this matchup involves two second-year receivers that have potential to bust out this season. Given the uncertainty over their production, though, might as well take the ‘dog plus 3.5 yards.
