X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Comparison - Overpriced / Underpriced Players on ESPN

Nick Mariano dives into the ADP pool to see whcih players are going much higher or lower in ESPN fantasy baseball drafts compared to other sites and outlines how to take advantage of the average draft position trends.

Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at ESPN’s respective ADP data.

Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower — being selected earlier or later — on ESPN compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't make them undraftable and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal, but it helps to stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data. In general, players on ESPN can expect starting pitchers to be undervalued and outfielders to be overvalued against the average.

What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). Here, we simply raise awareness of those whose draft stock is seemingly getting raised or dropped based on nothing other than the site's default rank. ADP data current as of February 23.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Cheaper Early-Round Picks on ESPN

Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF, ATL) – ESPN ADP: 23 (CBS: 6, RTSports: 12, NFBC: 8, Fantrax: 10, Yahoo: 8, Average: 11.5)

Normally, being one round off of the average isn’t notable. This changes when we’re talking about the first and second round, though, as the 2018 phenom is almost universally taken in the top-12 except in ESPN leagues. Don't ask questions and take the monstrous discount on a true five-category talent that you can pair with a stud SP in the first round for massive profits.

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) – ESPN ADP: 76 (CBS: 49, RTSports: 57, NFBC: 55, Fantrax: 57, Yahoo: 61, Average: 59)

Don’t go thinking this is a position-wide shunning of catcher from ESPNers, as J.T. Realmuto’s ADP is only six slots below his average ADP on the platform. Those targeting this Bronx Bomber can wait nearly two extra rounds to scoop the backstop as he looks to rebound from a 2018 campaign that was torpedoed by BABIP. His .220 ISO and 18.2% HR/FB rate are still stellar marks and his rate of making contact with balls in the strike zone actually rose by over three percentage points to a career-best 86.4% in '18, but a .197 BABIP is impossible to overcome unless you crank 50 homers. For reference, he posted a .317 BABIP in '16 and .304 in '17 -- most projections are giving him a .280 BABIP and a .250 batting average alongside 30-homer pop for '19, which makes for a nice median with potential for more.

Adalberto Mondesi (2B/SS, KC) – ESPN ADP: 152 (CBS: 34, RTSports: 41, NFBC: 43, Fantrax: 48, Yahoo: 77, Average: 66)

I'm not sure how this can be legitimate, but here we are. While players on Yahoo are getting a decent discount, Mondesi backers should be swarming ESPN and telling me what the hell is going on here. Sorting by average ADP, Mondesi is ranked 64th overall on aggregate draft boards yet he has a gap of 118 picks between the minimum (CBS) and ESPN’s maximum value. No player taken ahead of him has a gap wider than 30! Even if you don't believe in Mondesi much, you can't deny that his ceiling is the player who slugged 14 homers and swiped 32 bases in just 75 games (291 PAs) for a ridiculous 30HR/65SB pace! The most bearish of projections still give him roughly 20 homers, 35 steals and an average in the .240s, which is worth so much more than an ADP of 152.

Miles Mikolas (SP, STL) – ESPN ADP: 136 (CBS: 118, RTSports: 90, NFBC: 92, Fantrax: 98, Yahoo: 119, Average: 109)

Mikolas had little buzz when returning to the MLB in 2018 after playing in Japan for three seasons, but he delivered serious profits to those who invested. Now, those on ESPN have some extra room to stretch their dollar compared to other sites on St. Louis' Opening Day starter and get a solid ERA/WHIP anchor to go alongside some high-strikeout aces in earlier rounds. While I'm not painting him as a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher -- he had a 3.28 FIP, 3.67 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA behind last year's 2.83 ERA -- I lean towards THE BAT and ATC projections of an ERA around 3.75 with a WHIP below 1.20. His meager 3.6% walk rate leaves a lot of wiggle room on the mound and also helps minimize any mistake pitches that get sent over the wall. Don't pay for last year's stats, but the 136th pick is a wonderful price tag to take advantage of.

German Marquez (SP, COL) – ESPN ADP: 148 (CBS: 72, RTSports: 76, NFBC: 79, Fantrax: 111, Yahoo: 109, Average: 99)

Did everyone just forget that Marquez struck out 230 hitters as a 23-year-old in Colorado? I know, Coors Field is a frightful environment to bank on continued success for a pitcher, but that's more K's than Aaron Nola, Corey Kluber and Blake Snell, good for seventh in the bigs! We’ve seen blips on the radar from Ubaldo Jimenez and Jon Gray, but now we’re staring down Marquez and teammate Kyle Freeland after both staved off the ERA dragon that resides a mile high and causes pitchers to take on another run to a run-and-a-half on top of fielding-independent metrics. Some other sites are asking those in 12-teamers to invest as soon as the seventh round, yet his ADP paints him as a 13th rounder on ESPN. That makes him a perfect upside pick where you're guarded against his volatility with several higher picks, yet you're getting someone with true top-10 upside in the middle rounds.

 

Other Cheaper Picks

C: Wilson Ramos -- ESPN ADP: 161, Average ADP: 140
1B: Max Muncy -- ESPN ADP: 124, Average ADP: 113
2B: Jonathan Villar -- ESPN ADP: 133, Average ADP: 103
3B: Jurickson Profar -- ESPN ADP: 155, Average ADP: 135
SS: Paul DeJong -- ESPN ADP: 214, Average ADP: 205 (I know, barely any + value!)
OF: Tommy Pham -- ESPN ADP: 88, Average ADP: 76
OF2: David Dahl -- ESPN ADP: 111, Average ADP: 97
OF3: Victor Robles -- ESPN ADP: 138, Average ADP: 113
OF4: Eloy Jimenez -- ESPN ADP: 199, Average ADP: 119
SP1: Jose Berrios -- ESPN ADP: 106, Average ADP: 80
RP1: Jose Leclerc -- ESPN ADP: 140, Average ADP: 127
RP2: Jordan Hicks -- ESPN ADP: 242, Average ADP: 211

 

Costly Early-Round Picks on ESPN

Buster Posey (C/1B, SF) – ESPN ADP: 107 (CBS: 167, RTSports: 137, NFBC: 145, Fantrax: 160, Yahoo: 118, Average: 139)

Posey required to surgery on Aug. 27, 2018 to address a hip impingement and torn labrum, and he then underwent a microfracture procedure to promote healing. While that may help some pop return as he regains usage in his lower half, he also finds himself hitting in a weak lineup that calls a pitcher-friendly stadium home. I get that we can’t blindly project the power loss that we saw last year moving forward because health should be improved, but he’s on the wrong side of the aging curve at a position that can take a serious toll on the body. He currently costs a ninth-round pick in 12-teamers on ESPN, which is not a price worth of consideration to me.

Brian Dozier (2B, LAD) – ESPN ADP: 118 (CBS: 169, RTSports: 130, NFBC: 138, Fantrax: 136, Yahoo: 143, Average: 139)

When you load up the Barrels Leaderboard from Statcast and Ctrl+F “Dozier” then you’re going to find Hunter before Brian. Hunter Dozier had a 7.0% Barrels-per-PA rate, good for 62nd out of 390 players with at least 100 batted-ball events, while Brian Dozier was 193rd at 4.3%. Brian’s average exit velocity was just 86.7 mph, a meager 274th out of the same player pool, as the second-half surge we’ve come to expect from Dozier never came in ‘18. While I don’t buy a .240 BABIP (career .271) holding his average down at .215 again, the projections calling for .240 around 35-40 HR+SB instead of the 50-60 we’d seen in 2016 and ‘17 explain why picking him in the top-10 rounds could be a whoopsie-daisy.

Nicholas Castellanos (OF, DET) – ESPN ADP: 57 (CBS: 93, RTSports: 105, NFBC: 85, Fantrax: 76, Yahoo: 80, Average: 83)

Castellanos has blossomed into a great pure hitter and enters his age-27 season with five full campaigns in the books. While he turned in a career-best .854 OPS in ‘18 that was fueled by a 47.9% hard-hit rate, he still only clubbed 23 homers and went 2-of-3 on steal attempts (he’s never swiped more than four in a year) while barely falling short of 90 runs and 90 RBI. It appears ESPN’s OF inflation really plays with Casty, who is good-not-great in four categories and a zero in the fifth (SBs).

The closest comparison is Lorenzo Cain, who has an average ADP of 59 (and oddly sits at 75 on ESPN) and delivered 40 HR+SB for a second straight season while hitting .308 and scoring 90 runs. Sure, you take a big hit at RBI (38 in ‘18), but I’ll take Cain a few rounds later than Castellanos and scoop the extra output in stats that a player can exert more control over.

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PHI) – ESPN ADP: 104 (CBS: 156, RTSports: 147, NFBC: 146, Fantrax: 149, Yahoo: 125, Average: 138)

McCutchen’s fantasy relevance appeared to be in jeopardy two seasons ago, but he pulled himself up in San Francisco and the Bronx and now finds himself in hitter-friendly Philadelphia. While the environment and strong lineup around him are pros, this is a stiff market price considering he may not hit in the upper-third of the lineup. Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has said he wants to keep Cesar Hernandez at leadoff. That means Cutch must battle with Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins to be in the precious 2-4 slots. There's also no shying away from the fact that Cutch is much more valuable in formats where his stellar walk rate comes into play, but he's only topped a .260 batting average once in the last three years.

Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD) – ESPN ADP: 25 (CBS: 46, RTSports: 29, NFBC: 35, Fantrax: 32, Yahoo: 35, Average: 34)

I had written this up before the news broke about his resting for a few days due to a condition reportedly unrelated to his back/shoulder issues, but it'll likely tank his stock a bit moving forward compared to historical data. My coldness towards Kershaw is well-documented at this point, but making him a top-25 overall pick is just asking to be hurt. Speaking of hurt, we know that Kershaw is nearly a lock to hit the Injured List at some point(s) in 2019 thanks to his back condition that doctors say won’t heal as long as he keeps playing. It’s one thing to miss Kersh when on the IL but still have a peak ace when he is healthy, but 2018 saw his performance slip.

 

Other Pricier Picks

C: Willson Contreras -- ESPN ADP: 100, Average ADP: 122
1B: Carlos Santana -- ESPN ADP: 114, Average ADP: 182
2B: DJ LeMahieu -- ESPN ADP: 149, Average ADP: 205
3B: Kyle Seager -- ESPN ADP: 171, Average ADP: 253
SS: Elvis Andrus -- ESPN ADP: 116, Average ADP: 172
OF1: Michael Conforto -- ESPN ADP: 80, Average ADP: 103
OF2: Michael Brantley -- ESPN ADP: 81, Average ADP: 109
OF3: Stephen Piscotty -- ESPN ADP: 122, Average ADP: 148
OF4: Kyle Schwarber -- ESPN ADP: 158, Average ADP: 188
SP1: Jon Lester -- ESPN ADP: 156, Average ADP: 175
SP2: Julio Teheran -- ESPN ADP: 223, Average ADP: 278
RP1: David Robertson -- ESPN ADP: 91, Average ADP: 172
RP2: Dellin Betances -- ESPN ADP: 174, Average ADP: 246

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF