RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, on to the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. This is an 11 game slate, three of which have a 50 point total. Due to that, one can expect players from Buccaneers-Falcons, Football Team-Raiders, and Chargers-Bengals to garner some shares on rosters. If not, I would look at good plays in those games and get players in your lineups from them!
(1) Los Angeles Rams
After a few disappointing games, the Rams face Jacksonville, the No. 18 pass defense in the league allowing 244.5 passing yards per game. This game has several things I like to see when considering a stack for a tournament: it iss not the highest point total on the slate, the team likes to pass the ball (No. 9 with a 61.66% pass play percentage), the team is coming off of a relatively disappointing game, and a consolidated target share. Cooper Kupp has 31.34% of the team's targets, and 43% of the team's wide receiver targets. I would only pair Matthew Stafford and Kupp here. They are both expensive and will give you flexibility. If you can fit an Odell Beckham Jr. into your lineup, coming off of a 10 target game and reasonably priced, he would be fine to add to the stack.
I would not force a bring-back with this stack. If you are looking for a receiver in the $4k range to complete your build, you could throw in a Marvin Jones Jr., but I wouldn't build around him in your lineup. A Marvin Jones Jr. is likely to be a better play than Corey Davis for example, but there are better receiving options than both of these players on the slate in my opinion at a higher price range.
(2) Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are in a 50 point game total, going against the No. 30 pass defense that is allowing 266.6 passing yards per game, and are not looking to be super popular at the time of this writing. I could also see this stack gaining steam throughout the week when people dive more into the slate. A David Carr-Hunter Renfrow-Foster Moreau stack will not cost you the price of a premium stack and it will allow you to spend up at other positions such as running back. If you want Jonathan Taylor or Joe Mixon in your lineup, this stack can help make that possible. Renfrow is coming off his best game of the year: eight receptions off of nine targets for 134 yards. Earlier in the year, Moreau had a great spot start: six catches on six targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. Going against a worse pass defense than Dallas, the Raiders could get it going through the air again this week.
(3) San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco was my sneaky stack last week and here they are back again as my sneaky stack. With Deebo Samuel out, I expect an increase in targets to George Kittle in a price range that is wild to see. San Francisco is No. 31 in pass play percentage; they love to run the ball. Seattle has the No. 31 pass defense in the league, allowing 274 passing yards per game. Pairing Jimmy Garoppolo with Kittle is one way to go that is affordable and allows you to do various roster builds. Adding in Brandon Aiyuk is not cost-prohibitive.
Elijah Mitchell will be the popular play from this game. San Francisco loves to run the ball, Seattle has the No. 23 run defense, and with San Francisco favored by 3.5 points, there should be some positive game script for San Francisco too. Mitchell only averages 1.9 targets per game, so he is not someone I would stack with Garoppolo.
GPPs are all about "what-if" though. What if this 45 point total game turns into a shoot-out? What if Seattle has a great game and San Francisco finds themselves down in the 4th quarter? I would not use this stack as a primary, but if running 3 to 5 lineups, I would have this stack in at least one of them.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 13 DFS Stacks!
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