RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 3 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
We are just two weeks into the regular season, and many teams are searching for the eject button. I have a team whose entire bench is injured players. But no one wants to hear you complain, so why bother?
What you need to do is work your hardest to keep your team afloat these next few weeks. If you can hang around .500, you will be in the playoff race. And if your team gets healthy, all you have to do is get in and you can win it all.
You may have to be aggressive on waivers, but this is when you need your FAAB the most. These pivot options should help you keep the ship afloat until your starters return.
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Baker Mayfield is the QB1 through two weeks. He would be a great pivot option for anyone in need of a QB. What I especially like is he is running more. He has run for over 20 yards in both games and added a rushing touchdown last week. Between that, the matchup, and the weapons he has at his disposal, he is a top streaming option and can quickly become a weekly starter.
Derek Carr is the QB2 through two weeks with at least 21 fantasy points in each game so far. I am buying into this Saints offense due to the offensive change -- they went from using motion and play action the least in the NFL to one of the highest rates (literally highest for play action).
That is a change we can sink our teeth into. Carr is in play in what could be a high-scoring game against the Eagles, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and second-most touchdowns since the start of last season. He is a great pivot option.
#Saints offense
2024
- Motion on 72% of plays (11th in NFL)
- Play action on 50% of pass plays (most in NFL)2023
- motion on 38% of plays (31st in NFL)
- 14% play action (least in NFL)This explains A LOT
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 16, 2024
Justin Fields has yet to have a big fantasy day but he is playing good real-life ball. It is also worth noting that he had a 51-yard pass and a touchdown called back last week. Still, the upside is always high due to what he can do with his legs. He ran for 57 yards last week, which equates to nearly 150 passing yards. That keeps him in play weekly.
Sam Darnold has played well in his first two starts with the Vikings. In Week 2, it translated into a big fantasy day, putting up nearly 20 fantasy points. He has multiple passing TDs in each game and what I love is he ran for 32 yards last week. This week he faces the Texans, who are a tough secondary, but a trailing Darnold could throw more than we have seen so far. He is in play as a streaming option.
If you need an RB…
Samaje Perine and Carson Steele are both in play until we get answers on the Chiefs backfield. My lean is with Perine, as he should have a clear-cut role as the passing-down back and likely sees involvement on the ground as well. But Steele is a big-bodied back who has juice and the Chiefs are a fan of them, which puts him in play. If you are desperate, you can go the Kareem Hunt route.
RB Carson Steele explains what Andy Reid has talked to him about and what his role might be on Sunday night pic.twitter.com/BN9oHomm56
— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) September 18, 2024
Cam Akers is in play if Joe Mixon is out this week. He carried the ball seven times last week for 32 yards. More importantly, he looked the part. With Mixon banged up and Dameon Pierce dealing with a hamstring injury, Akers would be a clear pivot option if he drew the start. Volume wins the day in fantasy, especially with so many teams trying to survive injuries right now.
D'Onta Foreman played just two snaps fewer than Jerome Ford last week. But he saw double the carries, having 14 compared to Ford’s seven. He also saw one target and finished with 51 total yards. It was not a huge day, but the volume is encouraging. This week against the Giants should be another game where the Browns play with a lead. If so, I expect to see Foreman grinding out the clock again. That puts him in play this week.
Ty Chandler had more carries than Aaron Jones last week. He turned his 10 carries into 82 yards, compared to nine rushes for 32 yards for Jones. His efficiency could be enough to keep him involved in the game plan. He is explosive and while we have yet to see him heavily involved in the passing game, we know he can contribute there as well. If you are diving a bit deeper, he is an option you can use.
Bucky Irving continues to be the more effective runner than Rachaad White. That is partially because Irving is a good runner and partially because White is not. But White can also be used in the passing game. Right now Irving is more of a floor play, but if more volume was to go his way, we could see the ceiling.
If you need a WR…
Quentin Johnston led the Chargers receivers in snaps (69 percent), routes (19), targets (six), catches (five), yards (51), and touchdowns (two) last week. On the year, he leads them in targets, air yards, and end-zone targets and has been Justin Herbert’s first read on 39 percent of passes -- the third-highest rate in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data.
I was a believer in him coming out of college and now it looks like the Chargers are using him more in a way that fits his strengths. He is a strong pivot option if you require an injury replacement.
Quentin Johnston winning, stacking and then attacking the ball in the air to HBO for Justin Herbert? He helped a brother out on a non perfect throw. THIS is what this Chargers offense NEEDS from him consistently. pic.twitter.com/aBnoWM45AT
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) September 15, 2024
Rashid Shaheed continues to just go off. He had 169 yards and two touchdowns on just nine targets. The floor may not be the safest, but he has the upside to win you the week any time he steps on the field. With Derek Carr and the Saints offense operating as efficiently as they are, Shaheed is certainly in play as a pivot option.
Alec Pierce has been going off. After finishing as the WR10 in Week 1, he was the WR20 in Week 2. He leads the Colts in deep targets and air yards. While the floor may not be safe, the upside is what we are targeting when it comes to injury replacements and Pierce brings a ton of it.
The Colts offense will always feature the long ball as long as Anthony Richardson is healthy. I am plugging Pierce into a lot of lineups as an injured replacement this week.
The more I watch Colts WR Alec Pierce the more I realize we weren’t able to properly evaluate this guy playing with noodle armed QBs for two years. With Richardson’s bazooka, Pierce’s deep speed is finally unlocked. pic.twitter.com/IqNannpauC
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 18, 2024
Jalen Nailor only has five targets on the year but he has turned them into 75 yards and two touchdowns. Not bad. But with Jordan Addison likely out again and Justin Jefferson's status up in the air, he may be Sam Darnold’s No. 1 by default. If Jefferson is out, that would boost Nailor into lineups in Week 3.
Jauan Jennings has been very efficient in his role as the 49ers WR3 so far this season. But, with Deebo Samuel Sr. out for a couple of weeks, Jennings should see a bump in volume. The floor is not very safe, but he brings upside in a fantastic matchup against the Rams. Los Angeles has allowed the most yards and touchdowns to receivers lined up out wide. The Rams have allowed the most of each on deep passes to receivers out wide as well.
The Rams are depleted at receiver right now with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. Last week, none of the fill-in receivers had more than four targets. But, it was Demarcus Robinson who had a long catch and played the most snaps and routes. That makes him the top option for me. Tyler Johnson was the WR2, followed by Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell. For the floor, I rank them in that order. If you are going for an upside swing, Whittington seems like the best bet.
If you need a TE…
Hunter Henry led all tight ends with 12 targets last week and was second in air yards (79) behind only Brenton Strange (81). He caught eight of those for 109 yards -- good for 18.9 fantasy points and a TE2 finish.
He leads the Patriots in targets, catches, receiving yards, air yards, and end-zone targets. The elite usage not only has him in play as a sneaky start, but he just may become a weekly starter for your tight-end needy teams.
Which TEs are coaches designing plays for?
TE leaders in first-read target share (per @FantasyPtsData):
Trey McBride - 28%
Brock Bowers - 27%
Evan Engram - 25%
Hunter Henry - 25%
Mike Gesicki - 25%— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) September 16, 2024
Mike Gesicki nearly caught a touchdown in Week 1. He followed that up with a huge Week 2, catching seven of nine targets for 91 yards. Nine targets and 91 yards from a tight end and people want to just write it off. Do not make that mistake. He has looked like a focal point in the Bengals offense with Tee Higgins sidelined. He is a strong pivot option at the weakest position in the game.
Jonnu Smith finished last week as the TE6, scoring over 11 fantasy points. In total, he caught six passes for 53 yards. While the Dolphins' passing attack will be much more volatile, there is a chance that Skylar Thompson and Smith have chemistry. I would not recommend him as a straight-up start, but if you are looking for a plug-and-play option off the waiver wire, you can do worse than Smith.
Colby Parkinson is purely a play that you hope for volume. It did not work out in Week 2, as he saw just two targets, but he did run the third-most routes on the team and is the lead tight end. The floor is low, but this is just a deeper play that you hope can get volume from a good QB.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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