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Eduardo Escobar 2020 Outlook: Regression Looks Likely Following Career Year
5 years agoEduardo Escobar enjoyed what will almost certainly be his career year in 2019, slashing .269/.320/.511 with a whopping 35 long balls and 118 RBI for the Diamondbacks last season. Regression is almost certainly in order in 2020. Escobar is a power compiler, meaning that he hits a ton of fly balls (44.6 FB% in 2019) that allow him to produce 25-30 HR even if his Statcast power indicators aren't great (91.1 mph average airborne exit velocity, 7% Brls/BBE). Escobar is projected to hit third in Arizona's lineup, so he should be a positive contributor in the counting stats as well. Unlike others who profile similarly, Escobar neither pops up (5.2 IFFB%) nor strikes out (18.6 K%) at elevated clips. Unfortunately, there are also several warts here. Escobar actually has atrocious plate discipline (40.8% chase rate) that doesn't lead to Ks because he's such an aggressive swinger (52.5 Swing%). Such profiles tend to fall apart quickly, adding risk to the 31-year-old's profile. Baseball Savant's xStats pegged him for a .258 BA and .468 slugging percentage in 2019, significantly denting his value. Multipositional eligibility is nice (32 games at 2B, 134 at 3B), but it might be better to let somebody else roll the dice with an ADP of 116.31.
