George Kittle 2023 NFL Player Outlook- Elite Talent, Mediocre Production
2 years agoSan Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle is arguably the best all-around tight end in the game. He is deadly up the seam, catches everything, and runs with power and violence after the catch. He is also a tremendous blocker in the run game, which, unfortunately, is kryptonite for him in fantasy football. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is a wizard play-caller and runs an extremely run-heavy offense. The run game is an outside zone scheme that requires the blockers to move laterally in unison to open gaping cut-back lanes for the ball carrier, and Kittle's power, coupled with his elite athleticism, make him a devastating weapon as an extension of the offensive line. The problem for us fantasy managers is that blocking does not produce fantasy points. Kittle's heavy usage in the run game makes his TE1 fantasy performances completely unpredictable. In 2022, he finished as the TE3 overall and TE2 in PPR points per game, but don't be fooled; the devil is in the details. He failed to reach 40 receiving yards in eight games, and he caught five passes or more in only four games. Fantasy success is strongly correlated to opportunity, and Kittle only had four games with more than six targets. The result of his inconsistency in the passing game was seven games with under 10 PPR points and six games under seven PPR points, four of which came in the final five games of the regular fantasy season when managers needed to make a playoff push. His successful fantasy finish was mainly due to his 11 touchdowns, which nearly doubled his career high at that point, but as we know, touchdowns are flukey and one of the least sticky stats from year to year. Kittle also has injury concerns, missing at least two games every season since 2019. There is some hope that he can regain his status as one of fantasy's elites at the tight end position, but it would likely require Brock Purdy to start since Kittle's numbers skyrocketed under him in the last quarter of the NFL regular season, where he caught seven touchdowns from Weeks 15-18. Kittle has the talent to be the TE1 any given week, but his volatility throughout the season is concerning, and he should not be drafted higher than the TE5 at the earliest.