RADIO
Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for September 26th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off back-to-back relatively close losses, against Atlanta and Detroit, respectively, and face a difficult test in Green Bay as they try to get back to .500 on the season. The Packers are a perfect 3-0 through three games and they have managed to do it in a different way.
For years, the Packers have been riding the right arm of Aaron Rodgers, counting on exceptional quarterback play to get them out of trouble, but that hasn’t been the case early in this season. Rodgers has been mediocre but has been backed by a defense that is dramatically improved.
Can the Eagles face that tough Packers Defense and move the ball? Can the Packers move the ball more effectively than they have to this point?
Here are some angles to consider when playing Monkey Knife Fight props on Thursday night.
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PHILADELPHIA-GREEN BAY
OVER/UNDERS
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 279.5 PASSING YARDS – What can be expected from Rodgers, who rides high on name recognition and reputation but has averaged 215.7 passing yards per game through the first three weeks of the 2019 season? In four games against the Eagles, Rodgers has been held to 214 passing yards per game so while none of these numbers make it impossible for him to throw for 278 yards or more, it does also suggest there is a big hurdle to get there. On the other hand, the Eagles’ pass defense has been suspect, allowing nearly 294 passing yards per game and they are missing cornerback Ronald Darby. That makes it closer but it’s not easy to get on board with Rodgers who looks like a shell of his former self.
Carson Wentz UNDER 268.5 PASSING YARDS – This lands right around Wentz’s average of 267.7 passing yards through the first three weeks of the season but it’s a short week and the Packers defense has been formidable, allowing just 194 passing yards per game. If the Packers D continues to wreak havoc it will be tough for Wentz to match his average production.
Nelson Agholor UNDER 13.5 FANTASY POINTS – Although Agholor has caught 16 passes for 157 yards and scored three touchdowns on 23 targets in the past two games, there are a couple of issues here. One, the Eagles are facing a strong Packers defense, and two, Alshon Jeffery is returning to the Eagles lineup, which bumps Agholor down in receiver priority, likely to number three behind Jeffery and tight end Zach Ertz.
Aaron Jones OVER 13.5 FANTASY POINTS – Perhaps this is a little counter-intuitive, since the Eagles have allowed 57 rushing yards per game through the first three weeks, and Jones is coming off a game in which he rushed for 19 yards on 10 carries, but he also scored a couple of touchdowns and if he can hit paydirt just once against the Eagles, that would make this total more achievable.
Davante Adams UNDER 18.5 FANTASY POINTS – By talent, Adams should be able to this number against an Eagles secondary missing a starting corner. However, that Eagles Defense can’t be taken for granted and Adams has been targeted just seven times per game through the first three weeks, compared to 11.3 targets per game last season. He also has yet to score a touchdown this season. It’s going to take a dramatic shift in usage (which is, admittedly, possible) for Adams to put up enough numbers to hit that fantasy total.
RAPID FIRE
Zach Ertz +1.5 receptions vs. Davante Adams – Sticking with that point about Adams’ usage, he’s not getting targeted nearly as often as Ertz, who has been targeted 30 times in three games. Ertz has more receptions and while he is facing a better defense, he gets a nice boost as the underdog in this matchup.
Alshon Jeffery +6.5 receiving yards vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Coming off a 99-yard receiving game last week, MVS is not yet a consistent threat on a week-in and week-out basis. That makes it tough to favor his production over Jeffery, a veteran who is coming back from injury but has been a more consistently reliable option.
Miles Sanders +14.5 rushing yards vs. Aaron Jones – The rookie out of Penn St., Sanders, made some progress in Week Three, running for 53 yards on 13 carries and that’s more than Jones managed last week. Sanders does have to face a more dominant Green Bay defense but Jones is also banged up a bit and it’s tough to count on him outrushing Sanders by 15 yards when there remains the possibility that Jones will need to share time with Jamaal Williams.
