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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now progressing in our first full week of the baseball season and taking on this 14 game slate today!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Last night I went 1-2. I lost 0.5 units on the Brewers Moneyline and 0.5 units on the Mariners Moneyline. I did win Blue Jays vs. Yankees Under 9 runs (+100) and broke even for the slate. We turn our attention to Tuesday in hopes of making a profit!
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -126
BOS: Rich Hill| DET: Tyler Alexander
To start us off for today, we have the second game of the Boston Red Sox vs. the Detroit Tigers series. For the Red Sox, they have Rich Hill going on the mound. Last year Hill was 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA, a 4.43 SIERA, and a 14.4% K-BB%. Hill is now 42 years old and last year averaged just under 5 innings per start. He has shown he can be somewhat effective in a limited run.
Detroit has Tyler Alexander going on the mound as well. He was 2-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 41 games played (15 starts). He also had a 4.47 SIERA and a 13.1% K-BB%. These pitchers are pretty similar here.
This also might sound strange, and it is early in the season, but Detroit might have a better bullpen than Boston as well. These teams have similar lineups, and the starting pitchers profile similarly, so rather than take the -126 juice on Boston, I am going to take the plus odds and go with Detroit. They are good enough to win another one here from Boston, even if it's a comeback late in the game.
Pick: DET Moneyline (+142), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Kansas City Royals @ Saint Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: STL -170
KCR: Daniel Lynch| STL: Dakota Hudson
This is a game in which the total stood out to me being just 8.5 runs instead of the typical 9.0 runs we see posted. For the Royals, Daniel Lynch went 4-6 last year with a 5.69 ERA, a 5.19 SIERA, and a 7.7% K-BB%. On the flip side, the Cardinals are right-handed at the plate. Paul Goldschmidt (.320 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), Tyler O'Neill (.340 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), Nolan Arenado (.350 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), Albert Pujols (.270 vs. LHP last 2 seasons), Paul DeJong (.210 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), Yadier Molina (.260 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), Harrison Bader (.220 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), and Tommy Edman (.250 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), all mash against left-handed pitching and Lynch is not a good left-handed pitcher at the major league level.
On top of all that, the Royals bullpen has been busy as they have been giving up runs to Cleveland in their previous series.
On the other side of the game, Dakota Hudson is an average MLB starter. He has not played a full season since 2019 when he went 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA. Making his way back after just pitching 8.2 innings last year, we could still see some rust from Hudson here. I think the Cardinals win but this game has the makings of potentially being high scoring.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAA -122
MIA: Jesus Luzardo| LAA: Patrick Sandoval
Once upon a time, Jesus Luzardo was a prized pitching prospect that everyone was excited about. Last year he had a 6.61 ERA in 95.1 innings of work. His SIERA was 4.72 which was at least better than 6.61. He had a career-low 22.4% K% and a career-high 11.0% BB%. In his previous two seasons, he had BB% of 6.5% and 6.9%. At first glance when you look at those numbers, it might make sense to think it's a no-brainer to just pick the Angels and move on with your day.
My issue with taking Los Angeles is that outside of Shohei Ohtani (.350 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons) and Mike Trout (.300 ISO vs. LHP last 2 seasons), the rest of the lineup is just average against LHP. Mike Trout was scratched last night and we are uncertain his status for the game tonight as he has a stomach illness. That leaves potentially one big threat against Luzardo.
Patrick Sandoval has been an improving pitcher. Last year he had a career-best ERA (3.62), a career-best strikeout rate (25.9%), and a career-best K-BB% (16.0%).
Looking at the Miami side, +142 feels too large. If Trout sits out, this number will likely go down a little bit. Right now they are one of the bigger underdogs and I think they have a better chance to win than the sportsbook is giving us right now.
Pick: Miami Marlins ML (+142), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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