March 5, 2016

Jason Vigotsky analyzes three starting pitchers who could provide sneaky help in WHIP for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. These players could be sleepers.

In 2015, every qualified starting pitcher who ranked in the top 30 of WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) had a BB/9 under 3.00. 15 of those pitchers had a BB/9 under 2.00. There is a clear correlation between limiting walks and posting a low WHIP.

When looking for WHIP sleepers, it’s ideal to target pitchers who issue fewer than three walks per nine innings. Walks are the easiest outcome for a pitcher to control and are subsequently easy to predict from year to year. These three pitchers have a proven command of the strike zone and should award owners with valuable WHIP contributions.

Editor's note: Read about more draft values and sleepers with our daily updated list. Make sure to also bookmark our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place. Filter, sort, and export various rankings for various leagues - mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty, keeper values, and more. And it's all 100% free! 

WHIP It Good

Erasmo Ramirez, Rays

Tampa Bay’s 25-year old starter is coming off a break-out 2015 season in which he posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 163.1 innings. Maintaining a 2.20 BB/9 and a .272 BABIP, Ramirez significantly improved on his performance during 2013-2014. In those two seasons, Ramirez compiled a 5.12 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 147.2 innings. Although his .304 BABIP allowed is close to league average, Ramirez’s 3.66 BB/9 was indicative of a pitcher struggling to find the strike zone.

Given his spotty history, owners are likely skeptical that Ramirez will repeat his 2015 campaign. There are several trends that can help quell that concern. Ramirez’s improved BB/9 rate can be accounted for by a simple explanation: the guy kept the ball in the strike zone. He threw a first pitch strike 65.3% of the time in 2015, good for the 13^th highest F-Strike% in the majors. The 65.3% was a significant improvement on the 60.1 F-Strike% Ramirez maintained during 2013-2014. Overall in 2015, the right-hander threw strikes on 66.4% of his pitches, which placed him as 15^th best in the big leagues, squarely between strike-throwing machines Bumgarner and Buehrle. With his newfound control of the strike zone, Ramirez should continue to limit free passes in 2016.

Concern about Ramirez’s .272 BABIP is warranted, as that is a very difficult rate to maintain. Fortunately, Ramirez’s 2015 batted ball profile differed significantly from that of his 2013-2014 seasons. During those dark ages, Ramirez maintained a 40.1 GB% and a 6.5 IFFB% on his way to a .303 BABIP. In 2015, the Rays right-hander induced more grounders (47.8%) and had hitters more frequently popping up to infielders (13.0%). That 13.0 IFFB% was the fifth highest rate in baseball. A large reason of Ramirez’s BABIP improvement was the pitcher kept hitters from making solid contact.

What makes Ramirez even more intriguing is his SwStr%, which was 11.3% in 2015 and good for 17th-best in baseball. Currently 101^st in Rotoballer’s starting pitcher rankings, Ramirez has potential to become a strikeout artist and should have little trouble matching the 1.13 WHIP he posted in 2015.

Michael Pineda, Yankees

Debuting with the Mariners in 2011, Michael Pineda posted a 3.74 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP and 173 Ks over 171 innings. Opposing batters hit just .209 overall and .246 against his overpowering fastball that averaged 94.2 mph. But after being traded to the Yankees before the 2012 season, Pineda suffered a shoulder injury and missed the entire year. Due to a variety of setbacks, he did not make an MLB start during 2013 either.

Making his long awaited return to the mound in 2014, Pineda started 17 games and asserted his dominance to the tune of a 1.89 ERA and a microscopic .83 WHIP. His 0.83 BB/9 rate was otherworldly. Once again failing to square up pitches, batters hit only .198 against the 6’7 right-hander. Unfortunately, Pineda’s 2014 success did not carry over into 2015. Derailed by inconsistency, Pineda finished 2015 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Opposing batters hit .273 off him.

Despite the down year, Pineda posted numerous peripheral statistics that suggest he will improve this year. Over 27 starts and 160.2 innings, Pineda maintained a 2.95 xFIP, which was a career-low and good for ninth-best among pitchers who exceeded 150 innings. His Greg Maddux-esque 1.18 BB/9 was third lowest among the same demographic, and his 8.74 K/9 ranked in the top 30. So where did his season go wrong?

The .332 BABIP that victimized Pineda in 2015 dwarfed the .233 BABIP he surrendered in 2014 and the .258 he allowed in 2011. Part of the problem was the ineffectiveness of Pineda’s fastball. Although his fastball averaged 92.5 mph, which was up a few ticks from 2014’s 91.9 mph offering, opposing batters slashed .342/.342/.519 against the pitch. It’s hard to imagine Pineda’s above-average fastball will remain that hittable in 2016.

Health is always a concern for Pineda, but the Yankee offers good value and high-upside as Rotoballer’s 39th ranked starting pitcher. His BABIP should decrease, and his elite control will continue to minimize base-on-balls. A 1.10 WHIP is a conservative estimate for the 27-year old Pineda in 2016.

Rick Porcello, Red Sox

The Red Sox raised a lot of eyebrows when they signed Porcello to a four-year $82.5 million extension. The doubters were vindicated last year when the right-hander had his worst season since 2010. His unsightly 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP certainly left a bad taste in the mouths of fantasy owners, but Porcello did show signs of promise.

2015 was the second straight year Porcello maintained a BB/9 under 2.00. His 7.80 K/9 and 20.2 K% were both career highs. Undermining his bloated 4.92 ERA, Porcello posted a 4.13 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP. Still only 27, Porcello should bounce back to his production during 2013 and 2014, when his WHIPs were 1.28 and 1.23.

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