RADIO
I am a mixed bag of emotions because of the end of the 2017 season. I am excited for the NFL playoffs and a chance for the my hometown team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to win their third Super Bowl in my lifetime. I am sad because the regular season is at an end and with it goes the 2017 fantasy football season. I am happy for those of you out there who brought home the fantasy championship in your leagues, but also mad because Mike Evans cost me one of mine. I am hopeful for the 2018 offseason and all the joys that come with free agency, draft season, training camp, and the weeks before the 2018 season.
However, since the 2017 season has come to a close, we now have a full season's worth of fantasy data to compile, analyze, and interpret to get ready for next year. To start, we have the final consistency numbers for each player at each position. To breakdown these numbers fully, I will be devoting a single article to each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) to analyze the final consistency numbers from 2017.
The players are sorted by COR and filtered by playing at least six games and having at least one top-12 performance. This gives us a large enough tally of players at each position to get a clear grasp on how well our studs performed and how bad the busts failed to deliver. First up, the quarterback position.
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Quarterbacks - 2017 Consistency Report
Studs
Carson Wentz - The NFL is a better league with Carson Wentz in it and so is fantasy football. Before Wentz went down, he was on track for an MVP season, leading the Eagles to the number one seed in the NFC. For fantasy purposes, he was leading teams to the number one seed in the fantasy playoffs as well and would have made a strong case for 2017 fantasy MVP. Not only was Wentz an elite option at the position, with one of the highest ceilings among quarterbacks, he was also producing at a super consistent rate. His standard deviation of 5.14 ranks fifth among QBs and third among QB1s. I will not be surprised to see Wentz ranked in the top-3 quarterbacks heading into 2018 after a phenomenal 2017.
Russell Wilson - Your 2017 QB1 overall, ladies and gentlemen! What more can be said about Wilson that has not been already said. The man is a wizard on the field given the weapons around him and has been neck-and-neck with Carson Wentz all season in fantasy. Despite having a fairly high standard deviation (7.74), Wilson finished the season with the second highest ceiling among quarterbacks. He posted three games above 30 fantasy points and only one game below double-digits. Yes, he did hurt your team in Week 15 with a dud against the Rams, but he was the reason you made the playoffs in the first place. Like Wentz, Wilson could be ranked inside the top-three QBs for 2018.
Deshaun Watson - The future is bright in Houston and Watson is a big reason why. Since becoming the permanent starter in Week 2, Watson only scored less than 20 fantasy points ONCE (17.2 in Week 2). Like Wilson, Watson also posted three games above 30 fantasy points and was the most electric quarterback in the league before tearing his ACL in practice. The sample size may be small, but Watson has already shown he is capable of being a game-changer at the position. With DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller as his primary targets, Watson's fantasy value is through the roof.
Duds
Derek Carr - What happened? Carr was supposed to be the future of the NFL, the leader of a promising young Oakland Raiders team, and then it all fell apart. Statistically speaking, Carr had his worst season since his rookie year and was a big reason why Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree owners were left asking, what happened? Carr finished the year as the QB19, with only four games above 17 fantasy points and five games under double-digits. Consistency wise, he was pretty middle-of-the-pack with a 6.32 standard deviation, but his 13.75 average really killed his floor and ceiling. Because of this, Carr finished in the bottom-10 QBs in COR. There is hope for Carr in 2018 and beyond, but his fantasy value took a serious hit this season.
Dak Prescott - If you asked me in Week 9 whether Dak would be part of the "Duds" section in a Year in Review article, I would have called you nuts, but here we are. After an elite start to the season, in which Dak was the QB4 through the first nine games, the second-half of the season was not kind. Maybe some of the blame is the loss of his left tackle for a couple games or Ezekiel Elliot's suspension, but Dak was not Dak from Week 10 on. After posting five games over 20 fantasy points through the first nine weeks, Prescott scored more than 20 fantasy points once after Week 10 and posted three games under six fantasy points. This is the reason why Dak has the second highest standard deviation among quarterbacks and is right above Derek Carr in the final COR rankings. Heading into 2018, Dak is a fringe QB1 who has shown the ability to be an elite asset, but also a drop-able piece on any roster.
Jameis Winston - Some people who know me on Twitter know that I am a vocal Winston disliker. His hype train coming into this season sped by you so fast you couldn't see it until it hit a mountain called "Overrated." I see the potential in Winston, I really do, but as a dependable fantasy asset, we need to take a step back and breathe. Winston finished the season with a lackluster 8.06 standard deviation, seventh highest among quarterbacks. A respectable 15.52 average made Winston a quality streaming option in the right matchup, but he was too inconsistent to be an every-week starter. Winston only produced four games above 20 fantasy points (one of which was in Week 17) and also posted three games under four fantasy points. To his credit, Winston was injured and played injured for a couple games and the Week 1 bye did him no favors, but like Carr, Winston's fantasy value took a hit this season, leaving owners questioning what they really have in him.
Honorable Mentions
Matthew Stafford - Stafford continues to be, well, Matthew Stafford. He finished the year as the QB7 but his production probably didn't feel like QB7. He continues to be a very underrated NFL and fantasy quarterback given his team's struggles, but Stafford is the definition of a consistent quarterback week-in and week-out. His 5.03 standard deviation was fourth among quarterbacks. Pair that with a 17.11 average points per game, and you have yourself a high floor/low ceiling quarterback who never once scored less than 10 points in 2017. He continues to be match-up dependent, but who isn't these days. I will be looking for Stafford to be undervalued come August 2018 in drafts and a steal for late-round QB strategists.
Jared Goff - Don't worry guys, I wrote him off too after a dismal performance at the end of 2016, but the Jeff Fisher effect is real. Goff went from being a bust to a potential MVP candidate on the 11-5, NFC West division champions. Though his production on the field did not translate well to fantasy points in some games, Goff finished the year as the QB12 overall. He was one of the most consistent QBs with a 6.43 standard deviation to pair with a 17.03 average. Similar to Stafford, Goff was a high floor streamer for most of the season and even delivered a couple QB1 overall weeks. Under Sean McVay, Goff and the Rams offense will be fantasy gold for years to come.
Matt Ryan - Perhaps the most obvious prediction entering the 2017 season was the regression of the Atlanta Falcons offense after an outlier statistical season in 2016. Ryan finished as the QB15 in 2017, but his season was not as bad as some people may think. He averaged a mediocre 14.26 points per game but was INSANELY consistent around that average, with a 3.70 standard deviation, second among QBs. He did not have a single game above 19 fantasy points and only finished as a weekly top-10 QB three times (one in Week 17), but Ryan was fairly okay in 2017. Another offseason under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian may benefit him in 2018 and having weapons like Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman around him certainly does not hurt.
Jimmy Garoppolo - I think you guys know my feelings on JimmyG after my Week 16 love letter to him as fantasy goldmine in 2018 and beyond. Needless to say, I love Garoppolo, even though I will never be able to spell his last name right on the first try.
Cam Newton - Would it surprise you if I said Cam finished as the QB2 overall in 2017 behind Russell Wilson? It surprised me. To say the least, Newton's season was very... Cam Newton. His 18.72 average points per game may lead people to believe Cam was an elite asset all season. However, his 8.52 standard deviation was fourth highest among quarterbacks in 2017, making him a very boom-bust play on a weekly basis. His rushing ability certainly helps elevate his floor and ceiling, but when it becomes almost his main source of fantasy production, I am very hesitant to call him an elite player at the position. Passing-wise, 2017 was Cam's second worst season statistically, but it was also one of his best on the ground, setting career highs in rushing attempts and yards and scoring six rushing touchdowns. His rushing ability is primarily what he was missing last season and he reverted back to his old ways this season. I remain adamant that Cam is not an elite fantasy quarterback due to his struggles passing the ball, but you cannot deny his ability to make plays with his feet and score fantasy points on the ground.
That's all for the quarterbacks! Make sure to watch for tomorrow's Consistency Report on the running back position.
