March 22, 2016

Jason Vigotsky analyzes Taijuan Walker, Yordano Ventura, and Kevin Gausman as 2016 fantasy baseball sleepers and draft value. These MLB pitchers project to exceed their ADPs and can be sleepers.

With the start of each baseball season, fans and the media relentlessly hype promising young prospects. Inevitably, most of the young players come up short of the lofty expectations. In fits of anger, fantasy owners vow to never again draft the players who ruined their shot at glory.

Although these three players have disappointed owners in the past, they each have a chance to excel in 2016.

Editor's note: Read about more draft values and sleepers with our daily updated list. Make sure to also bookmark our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place - tiers, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty, keeper values, and more.

Second Chances

Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners

Taijuan Walker’s pre-season hype train was at full capacity before 2015. With each dominant spring training performance, the Seattle right-hander further ascended draft boards. He unmercifully mowed down Cactus League hitters en route to a 0.67 ERA and a 0.56 WHIP over 27.0 innings. Unfortunately, Walker’s impressive streak did not carry over into the regular season.

The Seattle flamethrower got hammered in his first start of the year, surrendering nine earned runs over 3.1 innings. It would not be until late May that Walker came into his own. From May 29th until the end of the year, Walker posted a 3.62 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 126.2 innings. His 8.38 K/9 and 1.29 BB/9 over that time frame netted him an eye-popping 6.94 K/BB ratio.

Walker’s main bugaboo last year was his penchant for giving up homers, as his 1.33 HR/9 rate was eighth highest in the majors. The 13% HR/FB he posted is bound to dip toward the league average of 10%. Another oddity in the right-hander’s stat line was how opposing batters teed off on Walker’s primary strikeout pitch. His splitter, which boasted a 16.6 SwStr% and a 28.7 K%, yielded an unsightly .302 BAA. If Walker can turn his splitter into more than just a put-away pitch, he will induce more ground balls and give up less homeruns. The 23-year old right-hander will not have an innings limit this season.

Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals

As a rookie in 2014, Yordano Ventura utilized his 96mph fastball to post a 3.20 ERA and 159 Ks in 183 innings. The right-hander gained further notoriety that season by pitching seven shutout innings in game six of the World Series, with his team on the brink of elimination. As a reward, Ventura was named the Royals’ 2015 opening day starter and was a pre-season fantasy darling. After allowing one run over six innings and picking up the win in the opener, Ventura soon hit a rough pitch. In addition to making headlines for his temper, Ventura underperformed before landing on the DL with a hand issue. Missing only a couple weeks, Ventura returned to the mound but still could not recapture his rookie success. The Royals controversially demoted him to Triple-A Omaha to make room for Jason Vargas. After Vargas promptly blew out his elbow, Ventura was called back up and caught fire.

From July 26th until the end of the regular season, Ventura went 9-1 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 14 starts. Compiling 87 innings of work during that time frame, Ventura struck out 91 batters for a 9.41 K/9. Batters hit just .228 off Ventura, and the right-hander maintained an excellent 52.5 GB%. The lone issue holding Ventura back from total dominance was his 3.41 BB/9.

Ventura will turn 25 in June and possesses one of the best four-seam fastballs in the game. He used that pitch less frequently in 2015 and instead relied more on his two-seamer and curveball. The curveball baffled hitters, inducing a 19.4 SwStr% and a .153/.196/.202 slash line. As Ventura continues to refine his arsenal, he should only get better.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles

Kevin Gausman was a popular preseason sleeper last year. Coming off a 2014 in which he posted a 3.57 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 113 innings as a starter, Gausman was seemingly ready to fulfill his blue chip promise. Unfortunately, fantasy owners who drafted Gausman early in pre-season had their hearts ripped out by the Orioles front office. Gausman was ticketed for the bullpen, where he spent the first month of the season before sustaining a shoulder injury in early May. Returning to the rotation in late June, the former fourth overall draft pick went on a tear.

After becoming a starter in June, Gausman maintained a 4.22 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 100.1 innings of work. He posted an 8.07 K/9 along with a 2.15 BB/9, totaling a stellar 3.75 K/BB ratio. Homeruns were Gausman’s downfall, as he surrendered them at a 1.36 HR/9 clip last year. A significant increase from the .56 HR/9 rate Gausman maintained in 2014, it’s unlikely that he will be so brutally victimized by the long ball in 2016.

The Baltimore right-hander threw his fastball nearly 70% of the time last year. Averaging 95mph, the heater yielded an unspectacular .262/.306/.450 to opposing hitters. Gausman’s splitter, which the right-hander picked up last season, induced a 23.2 SwStr% and held hitters to a .216/.286/.412 slash line. Expect the 25-year old Gausman to use the pitch more frequently in 2016 and continue his second-half success.

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