RADIO
Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 14 of 2024. His WR lineups advice for Week 14 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
As long as I am allowed to create content, I am officially on Mike Evans watch. In Week 13, Evans would finish with 118 receiving yards on eight receptions, keeping his 11th straight 1,000-yard season within reach. With five games remaining, Evans is currently sitting on 521 yards, 479 yards shy of keeping the streak alive. I mention this because incentives matter, records matter, and fantasy managers who recognize this are ahead of the curve. With Evans needing to average 95.8 receiving yards per game from here on out, expect Baker Mayfield to continue to feed the future Hall of Famer.
So, we know Evans is a must-start this week, which is great. However, with Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., Terry McLaurin, and DeMario Douglas out of action in Week 14 due to the bye week, we need some more starts here when it matters the most.
That's why we are here; let's punch those fantasy postseason dance tickets with the RotoBaller Week 14 starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Week 14 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
DeAndre Hopkins- WR, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
After watching Drake London catch nine balls for 86 receiving yards and Ray-Ray McCloud III haul in another four passes for 95 yards against this Chargers secondary on Sunday, you have to feel good about DeAndre Hopkins' chances to make a fantasy impact this week.
Los Angeles has been one of the best-scoring defenses this season. However, over the last four weeks, it has generously donated seven receiving touchdowns to receivers, along with 711 receiving yards. The 41.78 fantasy points per game it is allowing over this stretch is the second most, trailing only the Atlanta Falcons. I think Hopkins found his Secret Santa.
Hopkins to the Chiefs was the move of the year
pic.twitter.com/52t1tnGz2l— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) November 29, 2024
Last week against the Raiders, Hopkins ran a route on 65% of the Chiefs' dropbacks, his highest total since Week 9. With the snaps and routes increasing and a favorable matchup, expect Hopkins to make a statement here in Week 14. Hopkins is averaging 0.25 targets per route run; among receivers with at least 140 routes since Week 8, that sits 20th.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Are we seeing an NWI invasion in Tennessee? Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has eight touchdowns on the season and seven scores in his last eight games. The only wide receivers with more touchdowns than Westbrook-Ikine are Ja'Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. NWI is bringing down my Calvin Ridley vibes, that and Will Levis's accuracy.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scores TDs better than any other WR this szn
8 receiving TDs across the last 8 games
3 catches on 8 targets for 61 yards and 2 scores in Week 13 for 21.1 Fantasy Points
Double-digit Fantasy Points in 5/6 of his last games and 19+ in 2/3 of the last game
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) December 2, 2024
In that Week 13 contest against the Commanders, Ridley caught two of eight targets for 45 yards. Targets are great, but trust me, you won't want to rewatch the film. Ridley finished that game with an average depth of target of 20.3; only four receivers who ran 30 or more routes topped that. Ridley would also finish with a 34.6% air yards share and 122 air yards -- oh, what could have been. Of those right targets, only three were deemed catchable.
With volume expected to continue, if Levis can deliver a catchable ball, it is reasonable to suggest that a matchup against the third-friendliest defense should lead to fantasy production. Not only is this a revenge game for Ridley, but the Jaguars have allowed 2,177 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns, and 38.46 fantasy points per game to wideouts this year.
Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Ladd McConkey is turning into his own Monty Python skit. He is like the Black Knight. He entered Week 13 dealing with a leg injury and then caught nine of Justin Herbert's 23 attempted passes, accounting for 117 of Herbert's 147 passing yards while suffering another leg injury.
If they sit this man in a wheelchair and have Gus Edwards push him 10 yards down the field, Herbert will still throw him the ball. In McConkey's last three weeks, the rookie has produced 21 receptions on the 27 targets thrown in his direction while turning that volume into 323 receiving yards. In those three contests, McConkey has averaged 17.8 fantasy points and is the WR8 over that three-game sample.
With 117 receiving yards last week, McConkey is currently on pace to finish with 1,154 yards. Only seven other receivers have finished a season with more than 1,150 yards. Here's the list: Randy Moss, Michael Clayton, Odell Beckham Jr., Anquan Boldin, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua. McConkey is 335 yards shy of joining those names.
While he may not get it all this week, he has an excellent chance to put a sizable dent into the number, as the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 662 receiving yards and five touchdowns to the position over the last four weeks.
Here's where Ladd McConkey currently ranks among WR/TEs under the age of 23, in terms of yards per route run (minimum 300 routes, dating back to 2014)
Ahead of early-career Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Drake London pic.twitter.com/JCvEt1TLKG
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 2, 2024
Week 14 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
DJ Moore - WR, Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Considering his latest run, DJ Moore is such a difficult sit this week. In Week 13, Moore saw 16 targets, and since OC Shane Waldron was dismissed, Moore has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game. In those three games, not only is Moore getting the job done, but Keenan Allen has also turned 31 targets into 18 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
It may be hard to sit Moore with six teams on a bye. That said, the San Francisco 49ers have been allowing 24.90 fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks, the fifth-fewest. Throughout the season, the 49ers sit ninth with just 29.34 fantasy points per game against, having allowed just 129.2 receiving yards per game to oppositional pass-catchers and nine scores through the air to the position.
With how this 49ers defense has struggled to defend the run, I would not be surprised if the Bears gave D'Andre Swift a few extra touches in this one. Moore can still be a solid WR2/3 or flex option moving forward. With Thomas Brown now the interim head coach, Chris Beatty takes over offensive coordinator duties, which is something to watch.
Davante Adams - WR, New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Right now, the Jets put the "fun" in dysfunctional. Since being acquired by the Jets on October 15, Davante Adams has 344 receiving yards on 31 receptions, which works out to 57.3 receiving yards per game, or 12.3 yards per game fewer than he produced in three games with the Raiders.
In one fewer game since the deal went down, Jakobi Meyers has produced 403 receiving yards (80.6 per game) on 34 receptions. This includes 95 or more receiving yards in three of five contests, a mark Adams has yet to reach with New York.
It felt good to get that off my chest. However, it is time to separate the numbers from the emotions. While Miami has been more susceptible to the pass in recent weeks, it still has a guy in that secondary named Jalen Ramsey, who's still pretty good at football. Through 12 games this season, Miami has surrendered 1,491 receiving yards and seven touchdown receptions to the wide receiver position.
Add that all up, and you have a defense allowing opposing wide receivers just 27.22 fantasy points per game this season, the second-fewest.
Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Azeez Al-Shaair may have shortened Trevor Lawrence's season with a brutal hit to the head. The good news is that Lawrence was able to leave the stadium under his power. Before Lawrence's untimely exit, I thought Brian Thomas Jr. was about to remind everyone why he should be considered one of the top wide receivers in the game, not just one of the top rookie pass-catchers.
Brian Thomas Jr. should've been rookie WR2..
pic.twitter.com/91ynB0rqjE— Adam Carter (@SmartfootbalI) December 1, 2024
This season, Thomas is averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game and has accumulated 165.5 fantasy points. That's good enough for WR12. Here's the thing: in games in which Lawrence has missed time this season, Thomas is averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game, and in that Week 9 to Week 13 period, Thomas is the WR45.
With Lawrence unlikely to suit up this week, Thomas's fantasy outlook looks bleak against a Titans team that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
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