The Curious Case of Corey Davis

October 27, 2018

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler takes a look at the rest of season outlook for Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis to see if he can provide a decent return on draft investment.

Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Cole Beasley, Dede Westbrook...I could go on and on in listing all the random players who are having a better year than Corey Davis. It won't make you feel any better about drafting him, though. He's been about as disappointing as it gets as far as high profile wide receivers go. Davis had an average draft position of WR26 making him a fifth or sixth rounder depending on league depth. A respectable landing spot for sure, but it is clearly not working out at all.

Those who own Corey Davis are well aware of the fact that he's only had one great game thus far. That came back in Week 4 against the Eagles where he totaled nine receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown. It's games like that where you think "ok, the dude is back on track, here comes the breakout!" Ehh, not so much. That has turned out to be his only game over 100 yards, his only game with a touchdown, his highest reception total, and he hasn't had double-digit fantasy points since. There's been no shortage of opportunities either as Marcus Mariota has targeted him for a team-high 56 times.

It's been flat out bad for Corey Davis this year. That begs the question, what are you to do with a highly-drafted player who has been extremely disappointing?

What to Do With Davis

Before I provide a definitive answer, I should mention that there are a variety of factors at play. Roster construction, league depth, and who's available on the waiver wire all vary from league to league, person to person. If you've read anything I've written before, you'll know I like to push the philosophy of "don't make a move just to make a move." Sometimes doing nothing is the right course of action. But as you will see with what I'm about to say with Corey Davis, there's a very good chance you should and are able to do something other than nothing.

Let's start by looking at who the Tennessee Titans have left on their schedule. The first four games after the Week 8 bye are against the Cowboys, Patriots, Colts, and Texans. Amongst that group, only the Cowboys rank within the top 10 in passing defense in terms of yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing pass catchers. In fact, the only other terrifying matchup left on the docket is in Week 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Other than that, the Titans actually have a fairly easy schedule in terms of opposing pass defense. Unfortunately for Corey Davis, matchups haven't been a factor for him all season. He hasn't been able to capitalize on plus matchups against the likes of the Bills, Chargers, or Texans in weeks prior. There are certain players who are matchup-proof (Antonio Brown) much like there are players who are matchup dependent (Sterling Shepard.) But in the case of Davis, he happens to be neither. He's, for a lack of a better phrase, matchup irrelevant. The schedule should have no impact on whatever you decide to do with Davis, which is why I turn to the following.

You can honestly, legitimately, and safely drop Corey Davis as of Week 8. It seems somewhat crazy and almost hot take-ish, but in what scenario would you seriously feel good about starting him at this point? Weak at wide receiver? Shaky roster construction at the flex position? Decimated by bye weeks? Poorly timed injuries? Any and all of those situations can be fixed by glancing at who is available in your league. I dropped Davis in two leagues this week, once for Chris Godwin, and once for Tyrell Williams. (For context, these are fairly competitive 12-team leagues.) Both of those players have a much more positive outlook for the rest of the season. And, bye weeks aside, are much better options going forward anyway. Godwin only has one game with single-digit fantasy points, and Tyrell Williams is coming off of two big games in an explosive offense. That's way more than Davis can say.

The waiver wire exists for a reason. Not only is it there to deepen your roster, but it's also there for whenever you're in a pinch. You can find usable pieces to fill in a bye week or injured receiver. All things considered, that's what Davis right now. His numbers mirror the level of talent you can find on the waiver wire. I understand that dropping a fifth or sixth round pick sounds difficult, but we're in the eighth week of football here. Outside of players who we know have been and can be studs, draft position is now meaningless. (You're not dropping a struggling Jordan Howard or an invisible Le'Veon Bell, for example.) It is not difficult to replace someone like Corey Davis on your roster. Chances are you weren't starting him anymore nor should you be. And in the event he blows up Week 9 in Dallas or Week 10 against New England, you could always try to pick him back up. If he's gone, he's gone. Dropping him isn't going to ruin your season.

All of this brings me back to "don't make a move just to make a move." If you're in a 14 or 16-team league with two flexes then yea, don't drop Corey Davis for Devante Parker. Or even if you're in a 12-team league where the owners have already soaked up all the decent alternatives, don't drop him for the sake of dropping him. Check who's available, comb through your roster to analyze whether or not you need a borderline WR4 (that's what he is, don't argue this) and act accordingly. But overall, I would bet that about 75% of Corey Davis owners can make up for him elsewhere. Let him go. It'll be okay.

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