Week 3 Red Zone Alert - Risers and Fallers

September 24, 2021

Gladys L Tyler reviews the top red-zone risers and fallers heading into Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season at QB, RB, and WR to help fantasy football managers find an edge in their weekly lineups.

Paying attention to which players are used heavily in the red zone is one of the keys to success in fantasy football.

I'll be here each week to break down the players at each position who are having the most impact inside the 20 with multiple charts to bring home the points.

Before we get to the charts (and I love me some charts), let's discuss the risers and fallers who are going to impact your fantasy football lineup in Week 3.

Red-Zone Fallers

Let's just get the bad over with:

5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

It is almost disingenuous to call CEH a faller.  The truth is to those precariously hanging on to hope, it is about time to move on.

In two games, CEH has 27 carries.  He only has three red-zone touches and has yet to record a rushing touchdown, which is not an anomaly.  Last season he had 181 rushing attempts and five rushing touchdowns.

4.  Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills

Singletary is currently RB1 for the Bills, and he is on the field for a 71.1% snap share with 24 rushing attempts.  His running mate Zack Moss has only seen a 28.6% snap share and eight rushing attempts.

Here is the conundrum. Moss has four red-zone touches in eight rushing attempts (50%), while Singeltary has five red-zone touches in 24 rushing attempts (20.83%).

Moss has two touchdowns, and Singletary has one.

3. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert has completed 8-of-16 passes inside the red zone.  The Chargers as a team have entered the red zone 10 times for one touchdown.

Per Football Outsiders, the Chargers rank 31^st in red-zone offense DVOA.

Keenan Allen has five red-zone targets with three receptions and zero touchdowns.

Mike Williams has five red-zone targets and two receptions.

Austin Ekeler leads the team with eight red-zone touches.

The problem isn't the opportunity; it is completing the process of making the Chargers as a team fallers in the red zone.

Luckily they play the Kansas City Chiefs this week, who have allowed opponents inside the 20-yard line eight times, resulting in eight touchdowns.

2. Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots

Somewhat surprisingly, the Patriots are 18^th in passing attempts with 34.5 a game.  Meyers leads the team with 15 targets, and he is on the field for 92.9% of the snap share.  In that time, he had exactly one red-zone target.

1.  Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

There has been a cosmic shift in Andrews's fantasy value.  Although he has been on the field for 77% snap share, he has only seen 10 targets.  Zero targets have been in the red zone.

Red-Zone Risers

Here is where it will get interesting this weekend.

The Los Angeles Rams Defense vs The Tampa Bay Offense in the red zone

1. The Rams' defense has only given up three touchdowns on seven stands inside their own 20-yard line. They rank second in Red Zone Defense DVOA per Football Outsiders.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has turned 13 red zone trips into eight touchdowns.

Both the Rams' defense and the Buccaneers' offense are red zone risers. One must fall.

2. Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens still lead the NFL in rushing percentage.  In two games, they have rushed a league-high 55.56%.  They average 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game for a 62.50 rushing touchdown percentage (stats from teamrankings.com).

Ty'Son Williams is on the field for 48.1% of the offensive snaps.  He has 22 carries, and he also has four red-zone touches.

Latavius Murray sees a 33.3% snap share.  He has 19 carries and four red-zone touches.

But of course, to no one's surprise, the leader in red-zone touches is quarterback Lamar Jackson, and Jackson has six red zone attempts on his 56 rushing attempts.

    3. Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Carr is averaging 46.5 pass plays per game.  He has 93 passing attempts and 13 red zone attempts in two games, and he is currently rocking a 61.5% red zone completion percentage.

His leaders:

     4. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Denver Broncos

Bridgewater is only averaging 35 passes per game.  But in two games, he has 12 red zone attempts, with an 83.3% completion percentage in the red zone.

And even the injury to leading receiver Jerry Jeudy has not slowed him down.

Not to be outdone, the running back committee in Denver is also contributing.

The Broncos run the ball 43.61% of their offensive plays (11^th) and are 22^nd in passing percentage (56.39%).  Their red zone scoring percentage is 44.44%.

     5. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris is a riser because he is on the field for 96.4% of the offensive snaps.  He has 26 carries, eight targets, and four red-zone touches.  True, he has only one touchdown.  The Steelers are 30^th in yards per rushing attempt and 32^nd in yards rushing per game.

Harris is on the precipice of falling.  He needs to translate his 96.4% snap share and red-zone touches into touchdowns.

There is a thin line between rising and falling in the red zone. Stay tuned throughout the season for weekly analysis.

Come talk at me on Twitter @gladysLtyler

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